Population Viability and Vital Rate Sensitivity of an Endangered Avian Cooperative Breeder,the White-Breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus)

Social behaviors can significantly affect population viability, and some behaviors might reduce extinction risk. We used population viability analysis to evaluate effects of past and proposed habitat loss on the White-breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus), a cooperatively breeding songbird with a global population size of <2000 individuals. We used an individual-based approach to build the first demographic population projection model for this endangered species, parameterizing the model with data from eight years of field study before and after habitat loss within the stronghold of the species’ distribution. The recent habitat loss resulted in an approximately 18% predicted decline in population size; this estimate was mirrored by a separate assessment using occupancy data. When mortality rates remained close to the pre-habitat loss estimate, quasi-extinction probability was low under extant habitat area, but increased with habitat loss expected after current plans for resort construction are completed. Post-habitat loss mortality rate estimates were too high for projected populations to persist. Vital rate sensitivity analyses indicated that population growth rate and population persistence were most sensitive to juvenile mortality. However, observed values for adult mortality were closest to the threshold value above which populations would crash. Adult mortality, already relatively low, may have the least capacity to change compared to other vital rates, whereas juvenile mortality may have the most capacity for improvement. Results suggest that improving mortality estimates and determining the cause(s) of juvenile mortality should be research priorities. Despite predictions that aspects of cooperative systems may result in variation in reproduction or juvenile mortality being the most sensitive vital rates, adult mortality was the most sensitive in half of the demographic models of other avian cooperative breeders. Interestingly, vital rate sensitivity differed by model type. However, studies that explicitly modeled the species’ cooperative breeding system found reproduction to be the most sensitive rate.     

Linking environmental and demographic data to predict future population viability of a perennial herb

Recent advances in stochastic demography provide tools to examine the importance of random and periodic variation in vital rates for population dynamics. In this study, we explore with simulations the effect of disturbance regime on population dynamics and viability. We collected 7 years of demographic data in three populations of the perennial herb Primula farinosa, and used these data to examine how variation in vital rates affected population viability parameters (stochastic growth rate, λ_S), and how vital rates were related to weather conditions. Elasticity analysis indicated that the stochastic growth rate was very sensitive to changes in regeneration, quantified as the production, survival, and germination of seeds. In one of the study years, all seedlings and mature plants in the demography plots died. This extinction coincided with the driest summer during the study period. Simulations suggested that a future increase in the frequency of high-mortality years due to climate change would result in reduced population growth rate, and an increased importance of survival in the seed bank for population viability. The results illustrate how the limited demographic data typically available for many natural systems can be used in simulation models to assess how environmental change will affect population viability.     

Contrasting Patterns of Demography and Population Viability Among Gopher Tortoise Populations in Alabama

Population viability analyses are useful tools to predict abundance and extinction risk for imperiled species. In southeastern North America, the federally threatened gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is a keystone species in the diverse and imperiled longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem, and researchers have suggested that tortoise populations are declining and characterized by high extinction risk. We report results from a 30-year demographic study of gopher tortoises in southern Alabama (1991–2020), where 3 populations have been stable and 3 others have declined. To better understand the demographic vital rates associated with stable and declining tortoise populations, we used a multi-state hierarchical mark-recapture model to estimate sex- and stage-specific patterns of demographic vital rates at each population. We then built a predictive population model to project population dynamics and evaluate extinction risk in a population viability context. Population structure did not change significantly in stable populations, but juveniles became less abundant in declining populations over 30 years. Apparent survival varied by age, sex, and site; adults had higher survival than juveniles, but female survival was substantially lower in declining populations than in stable ones. Using simulations, we predicted that stable populations with high female survival would persist over the next 100 years but sites with lower female survival would decline, become male-biased, and be at high risk of extirpation. Stable populations were most sensitive to changes in apparent survival of adult females. Because local populations varied greatly in vital rates, our analysis improves upon previous demographic models for northern populations of gopher tortoises by accounting for population-level variation in demographic patterns and, counter to previous model predictions, suggests that small tortoise populations can persist when habitat is managed effectively. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Population Dynamics of the Andean Lizard Anolis heterodermus: Fast‐slow Demographic Strategies in Fragmented Scrubland Landscapes

Habitat fragmentation and loss affect population stability and demographic processes, increasing the extinction risk of species. We studied Anolis heterodermus populations inhabiting large and small Andean scrubland patches in three fragmented landscapes in the Sabana de Bogotá (Colombia) to determine the effect of habitat fragmentation and loss on population dynamics. We used the capture‐mark‐recapture method and multistate models to estimate vital rates for each population. We estimated growth population rate and the most important processes that affect λ by elasticity analysis of vital rates. We tested the effects of habitat fragmentation and loss on vital rates of lizard populations. All six isolated populations showed a positive or an equilibrium growth rate (λ = 1), and the most important demographic process affecting λ was the growth to first reproduction. Populations from landscapes with less scrubland natural cover showed higher stasis of young adults. Populations in highly fragmented landscapes showed highest juvenile survival and growth population rates. Independent of the landscape's habitat configuration and connectivity, populations from larger scrubland patches showed low adult survivorship, but high transition rates. Populations varied from a slow strategy with low growth and delayed maturation in smaller patches to a fast strategy with high growth and early maturation in large patches. This variation was congruent with the fast‐slow continuum hypothesis and has serious implications for Andean lizard conservation and management strategies. We suggest that more stable lizard populations will be maintained if different management strategies are adopted according to patch area and habitat structure.     

Density-dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations

Understanding population extinctions is a chief goal of ecological theory. While stochastic theories of population growth are commonly used to forecast extinction, models used for prediction have not been adequately tested with experimental data. In a previously published experiment, variation in available food was experimentally manipulated in 281 laboratory populations of Daphnia magna to test hypothesized effects of environmental variation on population persistence. Here, half of those data were used to select and fit a stochastic model of population growth to predict extinctions of populations in the other half. When density-dependent demographic stochasticity was detected and incorporated in simple stochastic models, rates of population extinction were accurately predicted or only slightly biased. However, when density-dependent demographic stochasticity was not accounted for, as is usual when forecasting extinction of threatened and endangered species, predicted extinction rates were severely biased. Thus, an experimental demonstration shows that reliable estimates of extinction risk may be obtained for populations in variable environments if high-quality data are available for model selection and if density-dependent demographic stochasticity is accounted for. These results suggest that further consideration of density-dependent demographic stochasticity is required if predicted extinction rates are to be relied upon for conservation planning.     

Demography_Lab,an educational application to evaluate population growth: Unstructured and matrix models

Training in Population Ecology asks for scalable applications capable of embarking students on a trip from basic concepts to the projection of populations under the various effects of density dependence and stochasticity. Demography_Lab is an educational tool for teaching Population Ecology aspiring to cover such a wide range of objectives. The application uses stochastic models to evaluate the future of populations. Demography_Lab may accommodate a wide range of life cycles and can construct models for populations with and without an age or stage structure. Difference equations are used for unstructured populations and matrix models for structured populations. Both types of models operate in discrete time. Models can be very simple, constructed with very limited demographic information or parameter‐rich, with a complex density‐dependence structure and detailed effects of the different sources of stochasticity. Demography_Lab allows for deterministic projections, asymptotic analysis, the extraction of confidence intervals for demographic parameters, and stochastic projections. Stochastic population growth is evaluated using up to three sources of stochasticity: environmental and demographic stochasticity and sampling error in obtaining the projection matrix. The user has full control on the effect of stochasticity on vital rates. The effect of the three sources of stochasticity may be evaluated independently for each vital rate. The user has also full control on density dependence. It may be included as a ceiling population size controlling the number of individuals in the population or it may be evaluated independently for each vital rate. Sensitivity analysis can be done for the asymptotic population growth rate or for the probability of extinction. Elasticity of the probability of extinction may be evaluated in response to changes in vital rates, and in response to changes in the intensity of density dependence and environmental stochasticity.     

The generality of management recommendations across populations of an invasive perennial herb

Demographic models are widely used to produce management recommendations for different species. For invasive plants, current management recommendations to control local population growth are often based on data from a limited number of populations per species, and the assumption of stable population structure (asymptotic dynamics). However, spatial variation in population dynamics and deviation from a stable structure may affect these recommendations, calling into question their generality across populations of an invasive species. Here, I focused on intraspecific variation in population dynamics and investigated management recommendations generated by demographic models across 37 populations of a short-lived, invasive perennial herb (Lupinus polyphyllus). Models that relied on the proportional perturbations of vital rates (asymptotic elasticities) indicated an essential role for plant survival in long-term population dynamics. The rank order of elasticities for different vital rates (survival, growth, retrogression, fecundity) varied little among the 37 study populations regardless of population status (increasing or declining asymptotically). Summed elasticities for fecundity increased, while summed elasticities for survival decreased with increasing long-term population growth rate. Transient dynamics differed from asymptotic dynamics, but were qualitatively similar among populations, that is, depending on the initial size structure, populations tended to either increase or decline in density more rapidly than predicted by asymptotic growth rate. These findings indicate that although populations are likely to exhibit transient dynamics, management recommendations based on asymptotic elasticities for vital rates might be to some extent generalised across established populations of a given short-lived invasive plant species.     

Local environment and density-dependent feedbacks determine population growth in a forest herb

Linking spatial variation in environmental factors to variation in demographic rates is essential for a mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations. However, we still know relatively little about such links, partly because feedbacks via intraspecific density make them difficult to observe in natural populations. We conducted a detailed field study and investigated simultaneous effects of environmental factors and the intraspecific density of individuals on the demography of the herb Lathyrus vernus. In regression models of vital rates we identified effects associated with spring shade on survival and growth, while density was negatively correlated with these vital rates. Density was also negatively correlated with average individual size in the study plots, which is consistent with self-thinning. In addition, average plant sizes were larger than predicted by density in plots that were less shaded by the tree canopy, indicating an environmentally determined carrying capacity. A size-structured integral projection model based on the vital rate regressions revealed that the identified effects of shade and density were strong enough to produce differences in stable population sizes similar to those observed in the field. The results illustrate how the local environment can determine dynamics of populations and that intraspecific density may have to be more carefully considered in studies of plant demography and population viability analyses of threatened species. We conclude that demographic approaches incorporating information about both density and key environmental factors are powerful tools for understanding the processes that interact to determine population dynamics and abundances.     

Population dynamics and comparative demographics in sympatric populations of the round-leaved orchids Platanthera macrophylla and P. orbiculata

Orchids (Orchidaceae) are a family of flowering plants with a high proportion of threatened taxa making them an important focus of plant conservation. Orchid conservation efforts are most effective when informed by reliable demographic research. We utilized transition matrix models to examine the population dynamics and demography within sympatric populations of a species pair of terrestrial round-leaved orchids, Platanthera macrophylla and P. orbiculata. The models were parameterized from a large data set spanning 9 years from field observations of over 1,000 orchids. Life table response experiments (LTRE) were used to identify which life history transitions, and which vital rates within those transitions, most contributed to observed differences between the two species and most contributed to interannual variation within each species. Results from mean transition matrices projected finite rates of population growth that were not significantly different between the two species, with P. macrophylla near the replacement rate and P. orbiculata below it. LTRE revealed that the difference in population growth rates between the two species was mostly due to differences in fecundity (flowering adult to protocorm transition) driven by differences in fruit set and seed germination into protocorm, which were much greater for P. macrophylla. The two primary contributors to interannual variation in population growth rates for both orchids were adult survival and fruit set, respectively. These findings indicate that any environmental disturbances harming adult survival or fecundity will have a disproportionately negative effect on the orchid populations.     

Population dynamics of the rare plant Kosteletzkya pentacarpos (Malvaceae): a nine-year study

Rare plant species have extremely narrow distributions that can be reduced to a single or few populations. The rare long-lived plant Kosteletzkya pentacarpos is one such species because only two extant localities are known in the western Mediterranean. In this study, we analyse the population dynamics over nine years of the only population known in north-east Spain, which is located at the Llobregat delta (Barcelona). We collected basic demographic data to build a transition matrix model. We computed population growth rates λ and their confidence intervals for each year of study. We conducted elasticity and variance decomposition analyses to determine the relative importance of vital rates to overall population dynamics. On average, the K. pentacarpos population exhibited an increasing dynamics. Survivorship of adult plants contributed the most to each λ, whereas temporal variance in fecundity and juvenile fate explained the observed variation in λ. Despite the increasing dynamics of K. pentacarpos , important reductions in fecundity resulting from biotic agents and recruitment owing to habitat limitations are constraints for population growth. We conclude that the knowledge generated in this long-term study should be used to create new K. pentacarpos populations at the Llobregat delta in order to minimize the risk of extinction following catastrophic events that are nearly impossible to predict.  © 2007 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society , 2007, 153 , 455–462.     

Demography of greater prairie-chickens: Regional variation in vital rates,sensitivity values,and population dynamics

Intensification of rangeland management has coincided with population declines among obligate grassland species in the largest remaining tallgrass prairie in North America, although causes of declines remain unknown. We modeled population dynamics and conducted sensitivity analyses from demographic data collected for an obligate grassland bird that is an indicator species for tallgrass prairie, the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), during a 4-year study in east-central Kansas, USA. We examined components of reproductive effort and success, juvenile survival, and annual adult female survival for 3 populations of prairie-chickens across an ecological gradient of human landscape alteration and land use. We observed regional differences in reproductive performance, survivorship, and population dynamics. All 3 populations of prairie-chickens were projected to decline steeply given observed vital rates, but rates of decline differed across a gradient of landscape alteration, with the greatest declines in fragmented landscapes. Elasticity values, variance-scaled sensitivities, and contribution values from a random-effects life-table response experiment all showed that the finite rate of population change was more sensitive to changes in adult survival than other demographic parameters in our declining populations. The rate of population change was also sensitive to nest survival at the most fragmented and least intensively grazed study site; suggesting that patterns of landscape fragmentation and land use may be affecting the relative influences of underlying vital rates on rates of population growth. Our model results indicate that 1) populations of prairie-chickens in eastern Kansas are unlikely to be viable without gains from immigration, 2) rates of population decline vary among areas under different land management practices, 3) human land-use patterns may affect the relative influences of vital rates on population trajectories, and 4) anthropogenic effects on population demography may influence the regional life-history strategies of a short-lived game bird. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Partitioning the effects of deterministic and stochastic processes on species extinction risk

Species populations are subjected to deterministic and stochastic processes, both of which contribute to their risk of extinction. However, current understanding of the relative contributions of these processes to species extinction risk is far from complete. Here, we address this knowledge gap by analyzing a suite of models representing species populations with negative intrinsic growth rates, to partition extinction risk according to deterministic processes and two broad classes of stochastic processes – demographic and environmental variance. Demographic variance refers to random variations in population abundance arising from random sampling of events given a particular set of intrinsic demographic rates, whereas environmental variance refers to random abundance variations arising from random changes in intrinsic demographic rates over time. When the intrinsic growth rate was not close to zero, we found that deterministic growth was the main driver of mean time to extinction, even when population size was small. This contradicts the intuition that demographic variance is always an important determinant of extinction risk for small populations. In contrast, when the intrinsic growth rate was close to zero, stochastic processes exerted substantial negative effects on the mean time to extinction. Demographic variance had a greater effect than environmental variance at low abundances, with the reverse occurring at higher abundances. In addition, we found that the combined effects of demographic and environmental variance were often substantially lower than the sum of their effects in isolation from each other. This sub-additivity indicates redundancy in the way the two stochastic processes increase extinction risk, and probably arises because both processes ultimately increase extinction risk by boosting variation in abundance over time.     

Bayesian Estimates of Transition Probabilities in Seven Small Lithophytic Orchid Populations: Maximizing Data Availability from Many Small Samples

Predicting population dynamics for rare species is of paramount importance in order to evaluate the likelihood of extinction and planning conservation strategies. However, evaluating and predicting population viability can be hindered from a lack of data. Rare species frequently have small populations, so estimates of vital rates are often very uncertain due to lack of data. We evaluated the vital rates of seven small populations from two watersheds with varying light environment of a common epiphytic orchid using Bayesian methods of parameter estimation. From the Lefkovitch matrices we predicted the deterministic population growth rates, elasticities, stable stage distributions and the credible intervals of the statistics. Populations were surveyed on a monthly basis between 18–34 months. In some of the populations few or no transitions in some of the vital rates were observed throughout the sampling period, however, we were able to predict the most likely vital rates using a Bayesian model that incorporated the transitions rates from the other populations. Asymptotic population growth rate varied among the seven orchid populations. There was little difference in population growth rate among watersheds even though it was expected because of physical differences as a result of differing canopy cover and watershed width. Elasticity analyses of Lepanthes rupestris suggest that growth rate is more sensitive to survival followed by growth, shrinking and the reproductive rates. The Bayesian approach helped to estimate transition probabilities that were uncommon or variable in some populations. Moreover, it increased the precision of the parameter estimates as compared to traditional approaches.     

Linking vital rates to invasiveness of a perennial herb

Invaders generally show better individual performance than non-invaders and, therefore, vital rates (survival, growth, fecundity) could potentially be used to predict species invasiveness outside their native range. Comparative studies have usually correlated vital rates with the invasiveness status of species, while few studies have investigated them in relation to population growth rate. Here, I examined the influence of five vital rates (plant establishment, survival, growth, flowering probability, seed production) and their variability (across geographic regions, habitat types, population sizes and population densities) on population growth rate (λ) using data from 37 populations of an invasive, iteroparous herb (Lupinus polyphyllus) in a part of its invaded range in Finland. Variation in vital rates was often related to habitat type and population density. The performance of the populations varied from declining to rapidly increasing independently of habitat type, population size or population density, but differed between regions. The population growth rate increased linearly with plant establishment, and with the survival and growth of vegetative individuals, while the survival of flowering individuals and annual seed production were not related to λ. The vital rates responsible for rapid population growth varied among populations. These findings highlight the importance of both regional and local conditions to plant population dynamics, demonstrating that individual vital rates do not necessarily correlate with λ. Therefore, to understand the role of individual vital rates in a species ability to invade, it is necessary to quantify their effect on population growth rate.     

Steep past and future population decline in an arctic wader: dynamics and viability of Baltic Temminck's stints Calidris temminckii

Decline of migrant wader populations worldwide implies that their demography may be affected by phenomena occurring in a large geographical scale. Knowledge about vital rates affecting population growth and viability helps in finding the processes behind the declines. We estimated the rate of population growth (λ) of a dramatically declined population of Temminck's stints Calidris temminckii using a ten year capture–recapture data. We assessed the viability of the population by projections based on λ and its variation. We also studied sensitivity of λ to changes in vital rates (breeding success, recruitment and adult survival). Both adult and juvenile survival and breeding success were lower than c. 30 years earlier. Adult survival seemed to have dropped during the study period. Population growth appeared strongly negative and viability analyses predicted an almost certain extinction within a few decades. Adult survival formed the main component of the growth rate suggesting that population crash is mainly caused by a drop in adult survival. Still, sensitivity analyses showed that a moderate rise in adult survival or any other single vital rate would not make the population viable. Most probably, survival has dropped due to factors operating along migration routes and wintering areas, at sites shared by birds from other parts of the breeding range. Therefore, the observed population crash and decline in adult survival may indicate parallel changes in poorly monitored arctic populations. Migration habits (continental wide flyways and scattered wintering areas) imply that factors responsible for the drop in survival have a wide geographical range.     

Life history predicts risk of species decline in a stochastic world

Understanding what traits determine the extinction risk of species has been a long-standing challenge. Natural populations increasingly experience reductions in habitat and population size concurrent with increasing novel environmental variation owing to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Recent studies show that a species risk of decline towards extinction is often non-random across species with different life histories. We propose that species with life histories in which all stage-specific vital rates are more evenly important to population growth rate may be less likely to decline towards extinction under these pressures. To test our prediction, we modelled declines in population growth rates under simulated stochastic disturbance to the vital rates of 105 species taken from the literature. Populations with more equally important vital rates, determined using elasticity analysis, declined more slowly across a gradient of increasing simulated environmental variation. Furthermore, higher evenness of elasticity was significantly correlated with a reduced chance of listing as Threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List. The relative importance of life-history traits of diverse species can help us infer how natural assemblages will be affected by novel anthropogenic and climatic disturbances.     

Does climate variability influence the demography of wild primates? Evidence from long‐term life‐history data in seven species

Earth's rapidly changing climate creates a growing need to understand how demographic processes in natural populations are affected by climate variability, particularly among organisms threatened by extinction. Long‐term, large‐scale, and cross‐taxon studies of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability can be particularly valuable because they can reveal environmental drivers that affect multiple species over extensive regions. Few such data exist for animals with slow life histories, particularly in the tropics, where climate variation over large‐scale space is asynchronous. As our closest relatives, nonhuman primates are especially valuable as a resource to understand the roles of climate variability and climate change in human evolutionary history. Here, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability among wild primates. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large‐scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. To address these questions, we use a database of long‐term life‐history data for natural populations of seven primate species that have been studied for 29–52 years to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. Associations between vital rates and climate variability varied among species and depended on the time windows considered, highlighting the importance of temporal scale in detection of such effects. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species. However, survival, which has a greater impact on population growth, was little affected by climate variability. Thus, we found evidence for demographic buffering of life histories, but also evidence of mechanisms by which climate change could affect the fates of wild primates.     

Estimates of annual survival,growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( \( \bar{\lambda } \)  = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.     

Experimental harvest regulations reveal that water availability during spring,not harvest,affects change in a waterfowl population

Population change is regulated by vital rates that are influenced by environmental conditions, demographic stochasticity, and, increasingly, anthropogenic effects. Habitat destruction and climate change threaten the future of many wildlife populations, and there are additional concerns regarding the effects of harvest rates on demographic components of harvested organisms. Further, many population managers strictly manage harvest of wild organisms to mediate population trends of these populations. The goal of our study was to decouple harvest and environmental variability in a closely monitored population of wild ducks in North America, where we experimentally regulated harvest independently of environmental variation over a period of 4 years. We used 9 years of capture–mark–recapture data to estimate breeding population size during the spring for a population of wood ducks in Nevada. We then assessed the effect of one environmental variable and harvest pressure on annual changes in the breeding population size. Climatic conditions influencing water availability were strongly positively related to population growth rates of wood ducks in our study system. In contrast, harvest regulations and harvest rates did not affect population growth rates. We suggest efforts to conserve waterfowl should focus on the effects of habitat loss in breeding areas and climate change, which will likely affect precipitation regimes in the future. We demonstrate the utility of capture–mark–recapture methods to estimate abundance of species which are difficult to survey and test the impacts of anthropogenic harvest and climate on populations. Finally, our results continue to add to the importance of experimentation in applied conservation biology, where we believe that continued experiments on nonthreatened species will be critically important as researchers attempt to understand how to quantify and mitigate direct anthropogenic impacts in a changing world.     

Accounting for stochasticity in demographic compensation along the elevational range of an alpine plant

Demographic compensation arises when vital rates change in opposite directions across populations, buffering the variation in population growth rates, and is a mechanism often invoked to explain the stability of species geographic ranges. However, studies on demographic compensation have disregarded the effects of temporal variation in vital rates and their temporal correlations, despite theoretical evidence that stochastic dynamics can affect population persistence in temporally varying environments. We carried out a seven‐year‐long demographic study on the perennial plant Arabis alpina (L.) across six populations encompassing most of its elevational range. We discovered demographic compensation in the form of negative correlations between the means of plant vital rates, but also between their temporal coefficients of variation, correlations and elasticities. Even if their contribution to demographic compensation was small, this highlights a previously overlooked, but potentially important, role of stochastic processes in stabilising population dynamics at range margins.