Integral projection models perform better for small demographic data sets than matrix population models: a case study of two perennial herbs

1. Matrix population models are widely used to describe population dynamics, conduct population viability analyses and derive management recommendations for plant populations. For endangered or invasive species, management decisions are often based on small demographic data sets. Hence, there is a need for population models which accurately assess population performance from such small data sets.
2. We used demographic data on two perennial herbs with different life histories to compare the accuracy and precision of the traditional matrix population model and the recently developed integral projection model (IPM) in relation to the amount of data.
3. For large data sets both matrix models and IPMs produced identical estimates of population growth rate (λ). However, for small data sets containing fewer than 300 individuals, IPMs often produced smaller bias and variance for λ than matrix models despite different matrix structures and sampling techniques used to construct the matrix population models.
4. Synthesis and applications . Our results suggest that the smaller bias and variance of λ estimates make IPMs preferable to matrix population models for small demographic data sets with a few hundred individuals. These results are likely to be applicable to a wide range of herbaceous, perennial plant species where demographic fate can be modelled as a function of a continuous state variable such as size. We recommend the use of IPMs to assess population performance and management strategies particularly for endangered or invasive perennial herbs where little demographic data are available.     

Rapid response to habitat restoration by the perennial Primula veris as revealed by demographic monitoring

The demography of Primula veris, a typical species of the species-rich Mesobromion grasslands, was investigated at two contrasting habitats in Eastern Belgium. Both a forested site and a clear-cut parcel were part of formerly larger calcareous grassland areas. By monitoring the demographic response of the target species, this study attempts to clarify the differences in fecundity, growth and survival between a restored and degraded calcareous grassland site. A study of plant traits showed a decrease in number of flowers, inflorescence stalks and plant size under a closing tree canopy. We surveyed individuals in permanent plots between 1999 and 2001. At the forested site, a first sign of decline included lower proportions of flowering individuals and afterwards an increase in mortality was found. Alternatively, removing canopy resulted in an immediate flowering response and both increased growth and seedling recruitment the year after. At both sites, survival rates strongly depended on the initial state, location and year. Projection matrix analysis revealed large differences in modelled population growth rates between sites and years. Under closing canopy the species showed only slow population decline, but the decrease was larger in the last survey year when higher mortality affected the number of reproductive individuals. Transitions between stages with the highest impact on population growth rate were identified by elasticity analysis. If calcareous grassland is forested, survival of reproductive adults is predicted to be very important for conservation of P. veris populations. However, seedling recruitment needs to be raised to guarantee long-term persistence of the populations. On the other hand, clear-felling of a site for restoration of species-rich calcareous grasslands may result in a rapid recovery of certain species.     

Stochastic matrix models for conservation and management: a comparative review of methods

Stochastic matrix models are frequently used by conservation biologists to measure the viability of species and to explore various management actions. Models are typically parameterized using two or more sets of estimated transition rates between age/size/stage classes. While standard methods exist for analyzing a single set of transition rates, a variety of methods have been employed to analyze multiple sets of transition rates. We review applications of stochastic matrix models to problems in conservation and use simulation studies to compare the performance of different analytic methods currently in use. We find that model conclusions are likely to be robust to the choice of parametric distribution used to model vital rate fluctuations over time. However, conclusions can be highly sensitive to the within-year correlation structure among vital rates, and therefore we suggest using analytical methods that provide a means of conducting a sensitivity analysis with respect to correlation parameters. Our simulation results also suggest that the precision of population viability estimates can be improved by using matrix models that incorporate environmental covariates in conjunction with experiments to estimate transition rates under a range of environmental conditions.     

The contributions of age and sex to variation in common tern population growth rate

1. The decomposition of population growth rate into contributions from different demographic rates has many applications, ranging from evolutionary biology to conservation and management. Demographic rates with low variance may be pivotal for population persistence, but variable rates can have a dramatic influence on population growth rate. 2. In this study, the mean and variance in population growth rate (lambda) is decomposed into contributions from different ages and demographic rates using prospective and retrospective matrix analyses for male and female components of an increasing common tern (Sterna hirundo) population. 3. Three main results emerged: (1) subadult return was highly influential in prospective and retrospective analyses; (2) different age-classes made different contributions to variation in lambda: older age classes consistently produced offspring whereas young adults performed well only in high quality years; and (3) demographic rate covariation explained a significant proportion of variation in both sexes. A large contribution to lambda did not imply a large contribution to its variation. 4. This decomposition strengthens the argument that the relationship between variation in demographic rates and variation in lambda is complex. Understanding this relationship and its consequences for population persistence and evolutionary change demands closer examination of the lives, and deaths, of the individuals within populations within species.     

种群统计随机性和环境随机性对种群绝灭的影响

影响种群绝灭的随机干扰可分为种群统计随机性、环境随机性和随机灾害三大类。在相对稳定的环境条件下和相对较短的时间内,以前两类随机干扰对种群绝灭的影响为生态学家关注的焦点。但是,由于自然种群动态及其影响因子的复杂特征,进一步深入研究随机干扰对种群绝灭的作用在理论上和实践上都必须发展新的技术手段。本文回顾了种群统计随机性与环境随机性的概念起源与发展,系统阐述了其分析方法。归纳了两类随机性在种群绝灭研究中的应用范围、作用方式和特点的异同和区别方法。各类随机作用与种群动态之间关系的理论研究与对种群绝灭机理的实践研究紧密相关。根据理论模型模拟和自然种群实际分析两方面的研究现状,作者提出了进一步深入研究随机作用与种群非线性动态方法的策略。指出了随机干扰影响种群绝灭过程的研究的方向：更多的研究将从单纯的定性分析随机干扰对种群动力学简单性质的作用,转向结合特定的种群非线性动态特征和各类随机力作用特点具体分析绝灭极端动态的成因,以期做出精确的预测。     

Analysis of interspecific competition in perennial plants using Life Table Response Experiments

The impact of interspecific competition is usually measured by its effect upon plant growth, neglecting impacts upon other stages of the life cycle such as fecundity which have a direct influence upon individual fitness and the asymptotic population growth rate of a population (λ). We used parameterized matrix models for three perennial plant species grown with and without interspecific competition to illustrate how the methodology of Life Table Response Experiments (LTRE) can be used to link any change in population dynamics to changes in any part of the life cycle. Plants were herbaceous grassland species grown for two years in a field experiment at Rothamsted Experimental Station, England. Interspecific competition reduced λ by over 90% in all species. Survival and growth were slightly affected by competition whereas plant fecundity was greatly reduced. Nearly all of the observed difference in λ between the competition treatments was explained by the fecundity terms, and more precisely by a large difference in the number of seeds, and a high sensitivity of λ to the germination rate. Whereas most competition studies focus on the measurement of change in individual fitness, our study illustrates how informative it is to take account not only of the effect of competition upon vital rates but also of how different vital rates affect population growth rate.