Can habitat modelling for the octopus Eledone cirrhosa help identify key areas for Risso’s dolphin in Scottish waters?

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are becoming increasingly important tools in the conservation of cetaceans. This has led to an interest in the use of species distribution models to predict where cetacean species are likely to occur based on the distribution of environmental variables. However, relationships between cetacean distribution and environmental variables are generally assumed to reflect the environmental preferences of their prey. Thus, understanding the distribution of prey may increase our ability to identify important areas for cetaceans. Here, we describe the diet of Risso’s dolphin (Grampus griseus) by analysing stomach contents of individuals stranded in Scotland over the last twenty years. Next, we use habitat modelling to test whether Rissos’s dolphin distribution in Scottish waters, as inferred from sightings, is related to the distribution of its main prey, the octopus Eledone cirrhosa. While good models of the relationship between the distribution of E. cirrhosa and environmental variables were obtained, there was no evidence of a relationship between modelled octopus distribution and the occurrence of Risso’s dolphins. These results suggest that identifying key areas for its main prey species is unlikely to help identify potential MPAs for Risso’s dolphin, at least at the spatial resolution used in this study.     

Fine‐scale habitat use in Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphins,Sousa chinensis,may be more influenced by fish rather than vessels in the Pearl River Estuary,China

Shifts in habitat use and distribution patterns in dolphins are often concerns that can result from habitat degradation. We investigated how potential changes to a habitat from human activity may alter dolphin distributions within Lingding Bay in the Pearl River Estuary, China, by studying the relationship between fish choruses, vessel presence and Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) detection rates. Analyses revealed temporal and spatial variation within fish choruses, vessel presence and dolphin detection rates. After accounting for any temporal autocorrelation, correlations between fish choruses and dolphin detection rates were also found; however, no relationship between fish choruses and vessel presence or dolphin detection rates and vessel presence were observed. Furthermore, fewer dolphins were detected at sites where fish activity was less intense. Thus fish activity, rather than vessels, may be a key factor influencing the distribution of the dolphins within the estuary. These findings emphasize the risk of potential shifts in habitat use for Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphins due to detrimental changes to prey availability and dolphin feeding grounds from human activity, such as overfishing and coastal developments, within the estuary. This is a critical conservation issue for this dolphin population that is facing intense anthropogenic pressure.     

Abundance and residency dynamics of the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin,Sousa chinensis,in the Dafengjiang River Estuary,China

Robust population size estimates are essential for informing population conservation status. Residency dynamics show population habitat use through time. Population size of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) has been extensively investigated in Chinese waters, but their residency dynamics are rarely known. Mark-recapture analysis based on photo-identification records was applied to humpback dolphins in the Dafengjiang River Estuary habitat, one of the key habitats in the northern Beibu Gulf, China. Movement analyses based on lagged identification rate indicated the humpback dolphins spent, on average, 78.5 days inside and 46.9 days outside the survey area. Within the study area, the humpback dolphin abundance was 83 identifiable dolphins. A total of 353–430 humpback dolphins, estimated by POPAN modeling, were involved in this fluid habitat-use dynamic. Robust Design analysis showed strong seasonality in humpback dolphin abundance and emigration probability, implying a movement- and habitat-use pattern likely associated with spatiotemporal distribution of oceanographic characteristics and prey occurrences. Population surveys and conservation measures currently conducted in Chinese waters seldom consider seasonality in movements between habitat patches, which can be addressed by genetic analyses across habitats and cross-matching photo-identification records among neighboring habitats.     

Common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) social structure and distribution changes following the 2008 Unusual Mortality Event in the Indian River Lagoon,Florida

In animal societies with fission-fusion dynamics, demographic disturbances can influence the social and spatial structure of the population. Within the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), Florida, common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) have experienced recurrent unusual mortality events (UMEs) providing an opportunity to examine postdisturbance population and social cluster restructuring. This study investigates the impact of the potentially nonepizootic 2008 UME on the IRL dolphin population. Photo-identification surveys conducted from August 2006 to May 2010 were stratified into pre- (August 2006–April 2008) and post-UME (September 2008–May 2010) time periods. Social network and spatial (univariate kernel density) analyses were limited to individuals sighted 5+ times per period (pre-UME = 183, post-UME = 134), and indicated a change from 11 to ten social clusters, although individuals did not always reassociate with pre-UME cluster associates. Despite the social and spatial disconnect between IRL proper and Mosquito Lagoon clusters, both network density and core area spatial overlap increased post-UME allowing for increased intercluster interactions. However, intracluster associations increased as well, allowing the population to maintain multiple social clusters within a loosely connected network. This study shows the important role sociality may play in the adaptability of cetaceans to environmental and demographic changes.     

Tight spatial coupling of a marine predator with soniferous fishes: Using joint modelling to aid in ecosystem approaches to management

Aim

Understanding the distribution of marine organisms is essential for effective management of highly mobile marine predators that face a variety of anthropogenic threats. Recent work has largely focused on modelling the distribution and abundance of marine mammals in relation to a suite of environmental variables. However, biotic interactions can largely drive distributions of these predators. We aim to identify how biotic and abiotic variables influence the distribution and abundance of a particular marine predator, the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), using multiple modelling approaches and conducting an extensive literature review.

Location

Western North Atlantic continental shelf.

Methods

We combined widespread marine mammal and fish and invertebrate surveys in an ensemble modelling approach to assess the relative importance and capacity of the environment and other marine species to predict the distribution of both coastal and offshore bottlenose dolphin ecotypes. We corroborate the modelled results with a systematic literature review on the prey of dolphins throughout the region to help explain patterns driven by prey availability, as well as reveal new ones that may not necessarily be a predator–prey relationship.

Results

We find that coastal bottlenose dolphin distributions are associated with one family of fishes, the Sciaenidae, or drum family, and predictions slightly improve when using only fish versus only environmental variables. The literature review suggests that this tight coupling is likely a predator–prey relationship. Comparatively, offshore dolphin distributions are more strongly related to environmental variables, and predictions are better for environmental-only models. As revealed by the literature review, this may be due to a mismatch between the animals caught in the fish and invertebrate surveys and the predominant prey of offshore dolphins, notably squid.

Main Conclusions

Incorporating prey species into distribution models, especially for coastal bottlenose dolphins, can help inform ecological relationships and predict marine predator distributions.     

Does tiger shark predation risk influence foraging habitat use by bottlenose dolphins at multiple spatial scales?

Prey availability and predation risk are important determinants of habitat use, but their importance may vary across spatial scales. In many marine systems, predator and prey distributions covary at large spatial scales, but do no coincide at small spatial scales. We investigated the influences of prey abundance and tiger shark ( Galeocerdo cuvier ) predation risk on Indian Ocean bottlenose dolphin ( Tursiops aduncus ) habitat use across multiple spatial scales, in Shark Bay, Western Australia. Dolphins were distributed between deep and shallow habitats and across microhabitats within patches approximately proportional to prey density when shark abundance was low. When shark abundance was high, foraging dolphins greatly reduced their use of dangerous, but productive, shallow patches relative to safer deep ones. Also, dolphins reduced their use of interior portions of shallow patches relative to their edges, which have higher predator density but lower intrinsic risk (i.e. a higher probability of escape in an encounter situation). These results suggest that predation risk and prey availability influence dolphin habitat use at multiple spatial scales, but intrinsic habitat risk, and not just predator encounter rate, is important in shaping dolphin space use decisions. Therefore, studies of habitat use at multiple spatial scales can benefit from integrating data on prey availability and the subcomponents of predation risk.     

Habitat-related heterogeneity in breeding in a metapopulation of the Iberian lynx

Identifying attributes associated with good breeding habitat is critical for understanding animal population dynamics. However, the association between environmental heterogeneity and breeding probability has been often overlooked in habitat analyses. We evaluated habitat quality in a metapopulation of the endangered Iberian lynx Lynx pardinus by analyzing spatiotemporal patterns in breeding records. Data summarizing successful production of litters after emergence from dens over four years within 13 lynx territories were examined. We designed a set of generalized linear mixed models representing different hypotheses regarding how patterns in breeding records relate to environmental heterogeneity. Environmental heterogeneity was described by two characteristics: 1) a landscape index measured in lynx territories indicative of time‐averaged prey availability and 2) yearly variability in prey abundance not captured with this index. By including the random effect of the lynx territory we also accounted for other territory‐specific effects on reproduction. We found significant differences in yearly prey density dynamics among lynx territories. However, temporal variation in prey density contributed poorly to explaining lynx breeding. The most parsimonious model included the landscape structure as the only effect explaining breeding patterns. A multinomial‐model‐representation of the landscape hypothesis explained nearly 50% of variability in breeding records. Results pointed to the existence of a habitat quality gradient associated with particular landscape structures influencing lynx habitat selection and breeding performance. Underlying this gradient was time‐averaged prey availability. Probably as a result of long‐term fitness strategies in long‐lived territorial species, the short‐term fluctuations in prey availability had a minor influence. Our results illustrate how habitat inferences can be enhanced by incorporating the link between spatiotemporal patterns in reproduction and environmental heterogeneity.     

Multiscale Habitat Use by Wolverines in British Columbia,Canada

ABSTRACT Wolverine (Gulo gulo) distribution in British Columbia, Canada, includes multiple-use lands where human use and resource extraction may influence habitat selection. We evaluated seasonal habitat use by resident adult wolverines using radiotelemetry locations from 2 multiple-use landscapes in British Columbia. Food, predation risk, and human disturbance hypotheses were considered in logistic regression analyses of used and random landscapes. Male wolverine habitat associations were most supported by the food hypothesis in both summer and winter. Moose (Alces alces) winter ranges, valley bottom forests, and avalanche terrain were positively associated with winter male wolverine use. Habitat use by male wolverines in winter was also negatively associated with helicopter skiing areas in the Columbia Mountains. Habitat associations of females were more complex; combinations of variables supporting food, predation risk, or human disturbance hypotheses were included in most supported models from both summer and winter in both study areas. Females were associated with alpine and avalanche environments where hoary marmot (Marmota caligata) and Columbia ground squirrel (Spermophilus columbianus) prey are found in summer. Roaded and recently logged areas were negatively associated with female wolverines in summer. In the Columbia Mountains, where winter recreation was widespread, females were negatively associated with helicopter and backcountry skiing. Moose winter ranges within rugged landscapes were positively associated with females during winter. Our analysis suggests wolverines were negatively responding to human disturbance within occupied habitat. The population consequences of these functional habitat relationships will require additional focused research. Our spatially explicit models can be used to support conservation planning for resource extraction and tourism industries operating in landscapes occupied by wolverines.     

Shallow-water habitat use and population parameters of rough-toothed dolphins,Steno bredanensis (G. Cuvier in Lesson, 1828) in southeastern Brazil

The rough-toothed dolphin (Steno bredanensis) is a poorly known species along its distribution especially in the Southern Hemisphere where data on habitat use and population parameters are scarce. Boat-based surveys were conducted from 2009 to 2017 in a shallow water environment in southeastern Brazil. During focal-group observations, S. bredanensis was more commonly found in mean depths of 22 m with varying group size and composition. Generalized additive models showed that group size was influenced by environmental variables such as sea surface and bottom temperatures, depth, and season. Photo-identification effort allowed us to catalogue 173 well-distinct marked individuals. Estimates of population parameters showed high and constant survival (Φ = 0.99) corroborating site fidelity but time varying capture probabilities (p = .03–.71). An open population model also indicated a small abundance estimate (Nt = 218) of S. bredanensis in the study area, improving knowledge for this species in shallow water environments of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.     

Predictive Modeling of Spinner Dolphin (Stenella longirostris) Resting Habitat in the Main Hawaiian Islands

Predictive habitat models can provide critical information that is necessary in many conservation applications. Using Maximum Entropy modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) resting habitat in the main Hawaiian Islands. Spinner dolphins in Hawai'i exhibit predictable daily movements, using inshore bays as resting habitat during daylight hours and foraging in offshore waters at night. There are growing concerns regarding the effects of human activities on spinner dolphins resting in coastal areas. However, the environmental factors that define suitable resting habitat remain unclear and must be assessed and quantified in order to properly address interactions between humans and spinner dolphins. We used a series of dolphin sightings from recent surveys in the main Hawaiian Islands and a suite of environmental variables hypothesized as being important to resting habitat to model spinner dolphin resting habitat. The model performed well in predicting resting habitat and indicated that proximity to deep water foraging areas, depth, the proportion of bays with shallow depths, and rugosity were important predictors of spinner dolphin habitat. Predicted locations of suitable spinner dolphin resting habitat provided in this study indicate areas where future survey efforts should be focused and highlight potential areas of conflict with human activities. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model used to inform the management of a species for which patterns of habitat availability are poorly understood.     

Evaluating environmental,demographic and genetic effects on population‐level survival in an island endemic

The population dynamics of island species are considered particularly sensitive to variation in environmental, demographic and/or genetic processes. However, few studies have attempted to evaluate the relative importance of these processes for key vital rates in island endemics. We integrated the results of long‐term capture–mark–recapture analysis, prey surveys, habitat quality assessments and molecular analysis to determine the causes of variation in the survival rates of Komodo dragons Varanus komodoensis at 10 sites on four islands in Komodo National Park, Indonesia. Using open population capture–mark–recapture methods, we ranked competing models that considered environmental, ecological, genetic and demographic effects on site‐specific Komodo dragon survival rates. Site‐specific survival rates ranged from 0.49 (95% CI: 0.33–0.68) to 0.92 (0.79–0.97) in the 10 study sites. The three highest‐ranked models (i.e. ΔQAIC_c < 2) explained ～70% of variation in Komodo dragon survival rates and identified interactions between inbreeding coefficients, prey biomass density and habitat quality as important explanatory variables. There was evidence of additive effects from ecological and genetic (e.g. inbreeding) processes affecting Komodo dragon survival rates. Our results indicate that maintaining high ungulate prey biomass and habitat quality would enhance the persistence of Komodo dragon populations. Assisted gene flow may also increase the genetic and demographic viability of the smaller Komodo dragon populations.     

Facilitative interactions among the pelagic community of temperate migratory terns,tunas and dolphins

We studied habitat and behavioral interactions among the marine community of top pelagic predators over the Atlantic continental shelf, observed from shipboard surveys off the northeastern United States. We hypothesized that foraging seabirds, specifically common terns Sterna hirundo and roseate terns S. dougallii, associate positively with the distribution and abundance of large, easily‐detected subsurface marine predators, as a result of facilitative interactions. Few rigorous tests examine the effect of interspecific interactions on seabird distributions, though many papers note the importance of environmental influences. Fewer, still, assess facilitation, defined as positive interactions among multiple taxa (birds, fish, mammals), where individuals use foraging neighbors for improved prey detection or enhanced prey availability. Our use of spatiotemporal‐structured Bayesian hierarchical models allowed us to test for fine‐scale associations of common and roseate terns with aggregations of tunas and cetaceans, and with standard oceanographic parameters. High tern abundance was linked to relatively high tuna densities and low dolphin densities, as well as high sea surface temperatures, shallow water, and proximity to shore. The fact that terns foraged when in the presence of tunas or relatively dense dolphin pods supports our hypothesis that the mechanism behind this spatial association involves positive interspecific interactions (attraction), a phenomenon that has been described but rarely quantified. This study reveals that community structure depends on static and dynamic covariates alike, ranging from bathymetry to the movement of other guild members. To improve the efficacy of predictive modeling, ecosystem approaches to applied conservation management should integrate not only habitat, but also behavior and community factors into analyses, especially in the case of marine spatial planning.     

Contrasting effects of habitat fragmentation,population density,and prey availability on body condition of two orb‐weaving spiders

1. Habitat fragmentation is a major threat to biodiversity because it disrupts movement between habitat patches. In addition, arthropod fitness may be reduced in fragmented habitats, e.g. due to reduced prey availability. 2. We studied the relationship of spider body condition with habitat fragmentation, population density, and prey availability. We expected that prey availability and population density of spiders would be affected by landscape composition and patch isolation. Body condition should be enhanced by high prey availability, but negatively affected by population density due to competition. 3. We sampled spiders on 30 groups of cherry trees that varied independently in the level of isolation from other woody habitats and in the percentage of woody habitat within 500 m radius. As a measure of body condition, we used residuals of the relationship between individual body mass/opisthosoma width and prosoma width of the two most common orb‐weaving spider species, Nuctenea umbratica Clerck and Araniella opisthographa Kulczynski. 4. Body condition of A. opisthographa was positively correlated with the abundance of flies, which increased with the percentage of forest in the landscape. In contrast, body condition of N. umbratica was reduced at high population densities, presumably due to intraspecific competition. In addition, body condition and population density of A. opisthographa was lower at isolated sites. 5. Our study suggests that effects of landscape fragmentation on body condition vary strongly between spider species, depending on the relative role of food limitation and intraspecific competition.     

Foraging efficiency of juvenile bluegill, Lepomis macrochirus, among different vegetated habitats

Optimal foraging theory is devoted to understanding how organisms maximize net energy gain. However, both the theory and empirical studies lack critical components, such as effects of environmental variables across habitats. We addressed the hypothesis that energetic returns of juvenile bluegill are affected by environmental variables characteristic of the vegetated habitats. Predicted optimal diet breadths were calculated and compared to prey items eaten by juvenile bluegill to determine if bluegill were foraging to maximize energetic gain. Differences in habitat profitability among vegetated sites were determined by comparing predictions of maximized energetic return rates (cals^-1) with prey contents of bluegill stomachs. Sizes of most prey items eaten by juvenile bluegill throughout the vegetated sites were smaller than the predicted optimal diet breadths. However, inclusion of smaller prey items in the diet did not seem to affect rate of energetic gain. Energetic return rates were maximized at the 1.5 and 2mm prey size classes and declined only slightly with inclusion of smaller prey sizes. Predicted energetic return rates and average mass in bluegill stomachs were related negatively. Average mass in bluegill stomachs also was associated negatively with Elodea canadensis stem densities and percent of light transfer, suggesting that foraging efficiency of bluegill decreased as plant density and percent of light increased. Results of our research indicate that maximization of energetic return rates is dependent upon availability of prey sizes that contribute to optimal foraging. Thus, determination of those habitats that provide the highest availability of benthic invertebrate prey with the least interference by stems is critical. Enhanced foraging capabilities can promote recruitment, faster growth, better body condition and survival.     

Sex-specific differences in the seasonal habitat use of a coastal dolphin population

Understanding the factors that contribute to a population’s habitat use is important for conservation planners and managers to identify reasons behind a population’s distribution. Habitat use often differs between sexes, however few studies on sexually monomorphic species document this difference, resulting in misleading ecological interpretations and non-targeted management actions. The aim of this study was to test for sex-specific differences in the seasonal habitat use of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) off Bunbury, Australia. Systematic, boat-based, photographic identification dolphin surveys (n?=?587) were conducted across seasons over 6 years during 2007–2013. Generalised additive models explored relationships between the presence-absence of dolphins and sex, water depth and benthic habitat type. Results highlighted that: (i) habitat use differed seasonally for males and females, (ii) depth had a strong influence on habitat use, which differed between sexes for summer, winter and spring, and (iii) there were no sex differences in habitat use in autumn, which coincides with the peak breeding season. In summer and autumn dolphins were concentrated in shallow, near-shore waters predominantly over reef and sand, and in winter and spring dolphins had a broader distribution over reef and mud/silt with the use of deeper, offshore waters. This pattern is consistent with the seasonally-dependent dolphin abundance that has been documented for this population. Identification of sex differences in habitat use provides management agencies with insights to implement informed actions for the conservation of this coastal dolphin population which is forecast to decline by 50% in the next two decades.     

珠江口伶仃洋中华白海豚栖息地利用对海岸线等变迁的响应

沿岸鲸豚类栖息地易受人类活动的干扰，导致其分布和核心栖息地发生变化。珠江口-漠阳江口中华白海豚种群是目前所知全球范围内最大的种群，其中伶仃洋水域是其重要的栖息地。近年来，珠江口伶仃洋周边城市发展带来的人类活动增加，白海豚的生存压力日益增大，分析伶仃洋中华白海豚对栖息地环境变化的响应，研究对应的保护策略显得非常迫切。以多源陆地资源卫星Landsat为数据源，通过影像分析近43年珠江口伶仃洋围填海造成的海域流失，结合近20年来采用截线抽样法收集的海豚观测数据，运用含障碍核插值（Kernel interpolation with barriers）方法，分析白海豚的分布及核心栖息地的变化。结果显示：1986-2015年期间，研究区域内流失的海域面积为344.08km²；目击分布离人工海岸线的平均距离大于自然海岸线的平均距离，目击分布到自然海岸线和人工海岸线的平均距离均在减小，表明过去20年白海豚的栖息地使用选择发生了一些变化，被迫适应人类活动的干扰；1997-2016年白海豚的分布范围呈现先增加后减小，白海豚栖息地使用的重心偏向伶仃洋东部水域，核心栖息地趋向主航道和无人海岛附近水域萎缩，可能是海豚因海域食物资源减少而迫不得已的选择。不同时期，珠江口中华白海豚国家级自然保护区所覆盖的核心栖息地比例呈递减趋势，占比由79.9%下降到49.4%，当前有必要对保护区范围和功能区作出一些优化调整，以适应栖息地使用的变化格局。     

Home Ranges of Bottlenose Dolphins (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Tursiops truncatus</Emphasis>) in the Indian River Lagoon,Florida: Environmental Correlates and Implications for Management Strategies

Photo-identification surveys conducted between 2002 and 2005 were used to determine dolphin home ranges and site fidelity within the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), Florida. The IRL was divided into six segments based on hydrodynamics and geographic features for purposes of characterization. Among the 615 dolphins with identifiable dorsal fins, 339 had ≥6 sightings and were used in segment and linear range analyses. The majority (98%) of dolphins were seen in ≤3 consecutive segments (331/339); of these, 44% (144/331) occurred in two segments, and 33% (109/331) in one segment. No dolphins were observed in all six segments. The largest number of dolphins was sighted in segment 1C (North Indian River). However, the highest density of dolphins was found in segment 2 (North-Central Indian River). Re-sighting rates for dolphins with ≥6 sightings ranged from 2.8 to 8.7 times observed. The mean linear home range varied from 22 to 54 km. Distributional analyses indicated that at least three different dolphin communities exist within the IRL: Mosquito Lagoon, and the North and South Indian River. No statistically significant correlations were found between the total number or density per km² of dolphins and surface water area, salinity, or contaminant loads within segments of the lagoon. These results suggest that dolphins do not selectively avoid areas with relatively unfavorable water quality. IRL dolphins should be studied on smaller spatial scales than currently practiced, and potential anthropogenic impacts should be evaluated based on geographic partitioning.     

Relationship Between Fecal Pellet Counts and Snowshoe Hare Density in Western Wyoming

ABSTRACT Snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) are an important prey species for Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and are considered critical for lynx population persistence. Determination of snowshoe hare distribution and abundance is needed by land management agencies for lynx conservation. An accepted approach for estimating snowshoe hare abundance is the use of fecal-pellet plot counts. Locally derived regression equations are preferred for accurate calibration of pellet counts to snowshoe hare density due to local differences in pellet deposition and decomposition. We used linear regression to examine correlations between snowshoe hare density, as determined by mark–recapture estimates, and pellet plot counts on both uncleared plots and annually cleared plots on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, western Wyoming, USA. We found significant correlations between snowshoe hare density estimates and fecal pellet counts for both uncleared and annually cleared pellet counts; however, the relationship was stronger (higher r) when using pellet counts from annually cleared plots. In addition, we found that adjusting the buffer size by omitting hard habitat edges (not used by hares) around trapping grids improved correlations between snowshoe hare density and fecal pellet counts for both uncleared plots and annually cleared plots. Though precision is sacrificed when using uncleared plots, they may be useful as a coarse index of habitat use by snowshoe hares. Our derived regression equations may be useful to identify important foraging habitat for Canada lynx in western Wyoming. Land managers responsible for conserving snowshoe hare habitat in western Wyoming may use these equations to monitor changes in hare populations among habitats and during prescribed management actions.     

Density dependence,prey accessibility and prey depletion by fisheries drive Peruvian seabird population dynamics

In marine ecosystems top predator populations are shaped by environmental factors affecting their prey abundance. Coupling top predators’ population studies with independent records of prey abundance suggests that prey fluctuations affect fecundity parameters and abundance of their predators. However, prey may be abundant but inaccessible to their predators and a major challenge is to determine the relative importance of prey accessibility in shaping seabird populations. In addition, disentangling the effects of prey abundance and accessibility from the effects of prey removal by fisheries, while accounting for density dependence, remains challenging for marine top predators. Here, we investigate how climate, population density, and the accessibility and removal of prey (the Peruvian anchovy Engraulis ringens) by fisheries influence the population dynamics of the largest sedentary seabird community (≈ 4 million individuals belonging to guanay cormorant Phalacrocorax bougainvillii, Peruvian booby Sula variegata and Peruvian pelican Pelecanus thagus) of the northern Humboldt Current System over the past half‐century. Using Gompertz state–space models we found strong evidence for density dependence in abundance for the three seabird species. After accounting for density dependence, sea surface temperature, prey accessibility (defined by the depth of the upper limit of the subsurface oxygen minimum zone) and prey removal by fisheries were retained as the best predictors of annual population size across species. These factors affected seabird abundance the current year and with year lags, suggesting effects on several demographic parameters including breeding propensity and adult survival. These findings highlight the effects of prey accessibility and fishery removals on seabird populations in marine ecosystems. This will help refine management objectives of marine ecosystems in order to ensure sufficient biomass of forage fish to avoid constraining seabird population dynamics, while taking into account of the effects of environmental variability.     

Using a new framework of two-phase generalized additive models to incorporate prey abundance in spatial distribution models of juvenile slender lizardfish in Haizhou Bay,China

The predictive skill of species distribution models depends on the quality and quantity of input information. In addition to the physical environmental variables, prey availability is also one of the main drivers regulating spatial distribution of marine species. However, prey distribution data have rarely been considered in habitat models due to the lack of information on non-commercial prey species. This may lead to an incomplete view of species distributions and biased model predictions. In this study, we developed a new framework of two-phase generalized additive models (GAMs) based on the Tweedie distribution to incorporate the predicted prey abundance as covariates in habitat models, and applied this framework to juvenile slender lizardfish Saurida elongata in Haizhou Bay, China. This study demonstrated that the predictive skill of habitat models could be greatly improved through incorporating prey abundance as explanatory variables. The importance of prey distribution data in the habitat model confirms the essentiality of including prey data while modelling species distribution. Spatial overlap and GAM analysis demonstrated that not all dominant prey can be selected as potential explanatory variables and only those prey species showing high spatiotemporal occurrences with predators should be incorporated. The framework derived in this study could be extended to other marine organisms to improve the predictive skill of habitat models and enhance our understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying the distribution of marine species.