Food-dependent growth leads to overcompensation in stage-specific biomass when mortality increases: the influence of maturation versus reproduction regulation

We analyze a stage-structured biomass model for size-structured consumer-resource interactions. Maturation of juvenile consumers is modeled with a food-dependent function that consistently translates individual-level assumptions about growth in body size to the population level. Furthermore, the model accounts for stage-specific differences in resource use and mortality between juvenile and adult consumers. Without such differences, the model reduces to the Yodzis and Innes (1992) bioenergetics model, for which we show that model equilibria are characterized by a symmetry property that reproduction and maturation are equally limited by food density. As a consequence, biomass production rate exactly equals loss rate through maintenance and mortality in each consumer stage. Stage-specific differences break up this symmetry and turn specific stages into net producers and others into net losers of biomass. As a consequence, the population in equilibrium can be regulated in two distinct ways: either through total population reproduction or through total population maturation as limiting process. In the case of reproduction regulation, increases in mortality may lead to an increase of juvenile biomass. In the case of maturation regulation, increases in mortality may increase adult biomass. This overcompensation in biomass occurs with increases in both stage-independent and stage-specific mortality, even when the latter targets the stage exhibiting overcompensation.     

Facilitation of fisheries by natural predators depends on life history of shared prey

Predators commonly share prey with human exploiters, intuitively suggesting that there is an inherent human–predator conflict through competition for prey. Here we studied the effects of fishing and predation mortality on biomass distributions and yields of shared prey using a size‐structured model of competing populations, describing the life histories of Baltic Sea sprat and herring. Whereas both species responded in a similar fashion to increased fishing mortality, with decreasing juvenile and adult biomasses, we found that responses to predation mortality differed between species. Sprat only display weak compensatory responses with increasing predation mortality, while over a substantial range of mortalities there was a strong increase in adult (and total) herring biomass, i.e. overcompensation. The observed biomass overcompensation results from relaxed intraspecific competition as predation mortality increased, allowing for faster individual growth rates that in turn lead to a change in population composition (juvenile:adult biomass ratio). Our results suggest that the potential for biomass overcompensation is higher for species exhibiting substantial growth after maturation. Differences in size‐selectivity of predators and fishing mortality resulted in a positive effect of predation mortality on fisheries yields, which can be explained by an overcompensatory response in adult herring biomass. Thus, somewhat counter intuitive, our results suggest that fishermen, depending on prey life history, may actually benefit from allowing for a higher abundance of predators, despite competing for shared prey.     

Experimental evidence for emergent facilitation: promoting the existence of an invertebrate predator by killing its prey

1. Recent theoretical insights have shown that predator species may help each other to persist by size-selective foraging on a shared prey. By feeding on a certain prey stage, a predator may induce a compensatory response in another stage of the same prey species, thereby favouring other predators; a phenomenon referred to as emergent facilitation. 2. To test whether emergent facilitation may occur in a natural system, we performed an enclosure experiment where we mimicked fish predation by selectively removing large zooplankton and subsequently following the response of the invertebrate predator Bythotrephes longimanus. 3. Positive responses to harvest were observed in the biomass of juvenile individuals of the dominant zooplankton Holopedium gibberum and in Bythotrephes densities. Hence, by removing large prey, we increased the biomass of small prey, i.e. stage-specific biomass overcompensation was present in the juvenile stage of Holopedium. This favoured Bythotrephes, which preferentially feed on small Holopedium. 4. We argue that the stage-specific overcompensation occurred as a result of increased per capita fecundity of adult Holopedium and as a result of competitive release following harvest. If shown to be common, emergent facilitation may be a major mechanism behind observed predator extinctions and patterns of predator invasions.     

Assessing population increase as a possible outcome to management of invasive species

Some efforts to reduce invasive populations have paradoxically led to population increases. This phenomenon, referred to as overcompensation, occurs when reduced intraspecific pressures increase juvenile survival or maturation rates, leading to increased population size. Overcompensation in response to eradication efforts could derail management efforts, so it would be beneficial to evaluate the likelihood of overcompensation prior to removal. We conducted a series of experiments to examine the potential for overcompensation of a non-native population of the European green crab, Carcinus maenas, which was being removed in Bodega Harbor, California. First, we examined the impact of adults on juvenile survival by measuring adult cannibalism on juveniles in the presence and absence of alternative prey, and the survival of tethered juveniles at varying adult densities. Second, we examined how adult presence affected juvenile short-term foraging and growth rates. Although adult presence reduced juvenile short-term foraging, we detected only minimal cannibalism and found no evidence that adults greatly reduce juvenile growth or survivorship. These results suggest that overcompensation is not likely to occur in this population in response to removal. We assessed this prediction using pre- and post-removal surveys of juvenile recruitment in Bodega Harbor compared to nearby populations, testing for evidence of overcompensation. Relative juvenile abundance did not statistically increase in removal compared to reference populations, consistent with our conclusion from the experiments. This experimental approach which focuses on an organism’s population biology provides a tool to assess capacity for assessing the capacity for overcompensation in management strategies for invasive species.     

Representing Density Dependent Consequences of Life History Strategies in Aquatic Ecosystems: EcoSim II

EcoSim II uses results from the Ecopath procedure for trophic mass-balance analysis to define biomass dynamics models for predicting temporal change in exploited ecosystems. Key populations can be represented in further detail by using delay-difference models to account for both biomass and numbers dynamics. A major problem revealed by linking the population and biomass dynamics models is in representation of population responses to changes in food supply; simple proportional growth and reproductive responses lead to unrealistic predictions of changes in mean body size with changes in fishing mortality. EcoSim II allows users to specify life history mechanisms to avoid such unrealistic predictions: animals may translate changes in feeding rate into changes in reproductive rather than growth rates, or they may translate changes in food availability into changes in foraging time that in turn affects predation risk. These options, along with model relationships for limits on prey availability caused by predation avoidance tactics, tend to cause strong compensatory responses in modeled populations. It is likely that such compensatory responses are responsible for our inability to find obvious correlations between interacting trophic components in fisheries time-series data. But Ecosim II does not just predict strong compensatory responses: it also suggests that large piscivores may be vulnerable to delayed recruitment collapses caused by increases in prey species that are in turn competitors/predators of juvenile piscivores. Received 24 February 1999; accepted 3 August 1999.     

Effects of Coyote Population Reduction on Swift Fox Demographics in Southeastern Colorado

ABSTRACT The distribution and abundance of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) has declined from historic levels. Causes for the decline include habitat loss and fragmentation, incidental poisoning, changing land use practices, trapping, and predation by other carnivores. Coyotes (Canis latrans) overlap the geographical distribution of swift foxes, compete for similar resources, and are a significant source of mortality amongst many swift fox populations. Current swift fox conservation and management plans to bolster declining or recovering fox populations may include coyote population reduction to decrease predation. However, the role of coyote predation in swift fox population dynamics is not well-understood. To better understand the interactions of swift foxes and coyotes, we compared swift fox population demographics (survival rates, dispersal rates, reproduction, density) between areas with and without coyote population reduction. On the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site, Colorado, USA, we monitored 141 swift foxes for 65,226 radio-days from 15 December 1998 to 14 December 2000 with 18,035 total telemetry locations collected. Juvenile swift fox survival rate was increased and survival was temporarily prolonged in the coyote removal area. Adult fox survival patterns were also altered by coyote removal, but only following late-summer coyote removals and, again, only temporarily. Coyote predation remained the main cause of juvenile and adult fox mortality in both areas. The increase in juvenile fox survival in the coyote removal area resulted in a compensatory increase in the juvenile dispersal rate and an earlier pulse in dispersal movements. Adult fox dispersal rate was more consistent throughout the year in the coyote removal area. Coyote removal did not influence the reproductive parameters of the swift foxes. Even though juvenile survival increased, swift fox density remained similar between the areas due to the compensatory dispersal rate among juvenile foxes. We concluded that the swift fox population in the area was saturated. Although coyote predation appeared additive in the juvenile cohort, it was compensatory with dispersal.     

Demography and dynamics of three wild horse populations in the Australian Alps

Wild horses (Equus caballus) are a non‐native species occupying over 2800 km² of the nationally significant Australian Alps National Parks. We estimated key demographic parameters (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival and annual finite population growth rate) over 3 years and related these to horse body condition and available food for three populations under natural conditions, and found a trend consistent with food limitation. The populations were independent, with different site characteristics and occupied areas, identified by land managers, as areas of concern about possible conservation impacts. Annual fecundity and juvenile survival varied across sites averaging between 0.21 and 0.31 female young per adult female, and 0.83 and 0.90 per annum, respectively, and annual adult survival was consistent across sites averaging 0.91 per annum. One population was increasing (λ = 1.09 year^?1; 95% CI 1.04–1.14) and two populations were stable (λ ～ 1.0 year^?1). Mean body condition of horses was positively correlated with mean pasture biomass rank. Across the three populations, fecundity, recruitment, body condition and annual finite population growth rate were lowest when mean pasture biomass rank was lowest and conversely highest when pasture rank was highest. We conclude that food limitation appears to be operating across these three sites. We used our results to assess the sensitivity of annual finite rate of increase (λ) to changes in key demographic parameters and found that λ was most sensitive to a change in adult survival, with the second most sensitive parameter being fecundity. Thus, if the aim of management is to reduce the size of the wild horse population then targeting adult survival is most important, followed by fecundity. Finally, we estimated the linear, negative, numerical response for wild horses between annual λ and horses per unit pasture biomass.     

Resource allocation,hyperphagia and compensatory growth

Organisms often shown enhanced growth during recovery from starvation, and can even overtake continuously fed conspecifics (overcompensation). In an earlier paper (Ecology 84, 2777–2787), we studied the relative role played by hyperphagia and resource allocation in producing overcompensation in juvenile (non-reproductive) animals. We found that, although hyperphagia always produces growth compensation, overcompensation additionally requires protein allocation control which routes assimilate preferentially to structure during recovery. In this paper we extend our model to cover reproductively active individuals and demonstrate that growth rate overcompensation requires a similar combination of hyperphagia and allocation control which routes the part of enhanced assimilation not used for reproduction preferentially towards structural growth. We compare the properties of our dynamic energy budget model with an earlier proposal, due to Kooijman, which we extend to include hyperphagia. This formulation assumes that the rate of allocation to reserves is controlled by instantaneous feeding rate, and one would thus expect that an extension to include hyperphagia would not predict growth overcompensation. However, we show that a self-consistent representation of the hyperphagic response in Kooijman’s model overrides its fundamental dynamics, leading to preferential allocation to structural growth during recovery and hence to growth overcompensation.     

Population Viability and Vital Rate Sensitivity of an Endangered Avian Cooperative Breeder,the White-Breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus)

Social behaviors can significantly affect population viability, and some behaviors might reduce extinction risk. We used population viability analysis to evaluate effects of past and proposed habitat loss on the White-breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus), a cooperatively breeding songbird with a global population size of <2000 individuals. We used an individual-based approach to build the first demographic population projection model for this endangered species, parameterizing the model with data from eight years of field study before and after habitat loss within the stronghold of the species’ distribution. The recent habitat loss resulted in an approximately 18% predicted decline in population size; this estimate was mirrored by a separate assessment using occupancy data. When mortality rates remained close to the pre-habitat loss estimate, quasi-extinction probability was low under extant habitat area, but increased with habitat loss expected after current plans for resort construction are completed. Post-habitat loss mortality rate estimates were too high for projected populations to persist. Vital rate sensitivity analyses indicated that population growth rate and population persistence were most sensitive to juvenile mortality. However, observed values for adult mortality were closest to the threshold value above which populations would crash. Adult mortality, already relatively low, may have the least capacity to change compared to other vital rates, whereas juvenile mortality may have the most capacity for improvement. Results suggest that improving mortality estimates and determining the cause(s) of juvenile mortality should be research priorities. Despite predictions that aspects of cooperative systems may result in variation in reproduction or juvenile mortality being the most sensitive vital rates, adult mortality was the most sensitive in half of the demographic models of other avian cooperative breeders. Interestingly, vital rate sensitivity differed by model type. However, studies that explicitly modeled the species’ cooperative breeding system found reproduction to be the most sensitive rate.     

Demographic and environmental influences on life-history traits of isolated populations of the Andean catfish Astroblepus ubidiai

In this study, we examined the influence of demographic and environmental variables on the life histories of six remnant populations of the Andean catfishAstroblepus ubidiai (Actinopterygii; Siluriform) located in isolated refuges, and tested six predictions on the relationships between age at maturity, generation time, population density and juvenile and adult growth and survival rates. The three populations inhabiting the watershed with a direct connection to a major lake (Imbakucha) exhibited later maturity, a longer generation time, higher adult survivorship, a higher adult-to-juvenile survival ratio and lower biomass density than those of the adjacent, non-lacustrine watersheds. Across all six populations, there was a strong correlation between mean age at maturity and both the adult-to-juvenile survival ratio and biomass density. Study populations also showed a pattern of inverse density-dependence associated with Allee effects. We conclude that without limitations in the availability of environmental resources, higher population density can be negatively related to age at maturity. This relationship would be expected to become positive when carrying capacity of the systems is reached. Delayed maturity in the Imbakucha populations may be an adaptive response for increasing juvenile survival under stressful conditions.     

Local adaptation of reproductive performance during thermal stress

Considerable evidence exists for local adaptation of critical thermal limits in ectotherms following adult temperature stress, but fewer studies have tested for local adaptation of sublethal heat stress effects across life‐history stages. In organisms with complex life cycles, such as holometabolous insects, heat stress during juvenile stages may severely impact gametogenesis, having downstream consequences on reproductive performance that may be mediated by local adaptation, although this is rarely studied. Here, we tested how exposure to either benign or heat stress temperature during juvenile and adult stages, either independently or combined, influences egg‐to‐adult viability, adult sperm motility and fertility in high‐ and low‐latitude populations of Drosophila subobscura. We found both population‐ and temperature‐specific effects on survival and sperm motility; juvenile heat stress decreased survival and subsequent sperm motility and each trait was lower in the northern population. We found an interaction between population and temperature on fertility following application of juvenile heat stress; although fertility was negatively impacted in both populations, the southern population was less affected. When the adult stage was also subject to heat stress, the southern population exhibited positive carry‐over effects whereas the northern population's fertility remained low. Thus, the northern population is more susceptible to sublethal reproductive consequences following exposure to juvenile heat stress. This may be common in other organisms with complex life cycles and current models predicting population responses to climate change, which do not take into account the impact of juvenile heat stress on reproductive performance, may be too conservative.     

Predicting the effect of disturbance on coastal birds

Assessments of whether disturbance is having a deleterious effect on populations have often measured behavioural responses to disturbance and assumed that populations with a larger behavioural response are more susceptible to disturbance. However, there is no guarantee that the behavioural response to disturbance is related to the population consequence, measured in terms of decreased reproduction or increased mortality. Individual-based models, consisting of fitness-maximizing individuals, are one means of linking the behavioural responses to disturbance to population consequences. This paper reviews how individual-based models have been used to predict the effect of disturbance on populations of shorebirds and wildfowl at several European sites, and shows how these models could be improved in the future by incorporating a range of alternative responses to disturbance.     

Population studies based on relative abundance of five different life history stages of Ayu,Plecoglossus altivelis (Pisces,Plecoglossidae), in Lake Biwa

1. Comparison of relative abundance of each two successive life history stages was made for studying population dynamics of ayu, Plecoglossus altivelis, in Lake Biwa.
2. Number of eggs spawned is proportional primarily to the size of biomass of spawner population although spawning success plainly depends on presence or absence of heavy rain in the spawning period.
3. Although density of fry tends to be proportional to that of egg, yearly fluctuation of the fry mortality may be caused by changes in density of food organisms but is not in compensatory way.
4. From the fry stage to the juvenile one the rate of mortality and/or of growth seem to fluctuate in compensatory way which is supposed to be related to a shortage of food.
5. Yearly fluctuation of mortality of adult stage is caused by an artificial factor as changes of fishing intensity.
6. Necessity of studying actual events at each stage of the life history process separately in relation with environmental conditions is discussed through the result of the present analysis.

     

种群密度与施肥对垂穗披碱草刈割后补偿作用的影响

 以甘南亚高山草甸常见牧草垂穗披碱草(Elymus nutans)为对象,通过考察种群密度、施肥与刈割处理等对植物生长和生殖的影响效应,比较了垂穗披碱草在5个密度及2个施肥实验处理条件下对4种刈割处理的补偿性反应特点。结果表明,在所有密度及施肥处理条件下,早期轻度刈割处理 (分蘖期刈割,留茬4 cm) 都有利于植物的补偿作用,后期重度处理 (拔节期刈割,留茬2 cm) 可显著降低植物的地上部分生物量及生殖部分干重 (穗重)。在不施肥情况下,刈割对垂穗披碱草的影响程度随种群密度而加大,在低密度处理中早期轻度刈割的植物发生了超补偿。可以认为,低密度种群中植物具有较多的分蘖是植物在刈割后表现出较高补偿能力的一个重要生物学原因。实验还发现,施肥可提高植物个体的分蘖能力和秆叶再生能力,因而总体上可增强植物的补偿能力,并且在中等密度条件下垂穗披碱草的补偿能力较强,尽管没有发生超补偿现象。不过,施肥主要是有利于植物地上营养器官的补偿,生殖器官的补偿程度较小一些。试验结果对科学管理人工草场具有一定的指导意义。     

Ontogenetic symmetry and asymmetry in energetics

Body size ( $\equiv $ biomass) is the dominant determinant of population dynamical processes such as giving birth or dying in almost all species, with often drastically different behaviour occurring in different parts of the growth trajectory, while the latter is largely determined by food availability at the different life stages. This leads to the question under what conditions unstructured population models, formulated in terms of total population biomass, still do a fair job. To contribute to answering this question we first analyze the conditions under which a size-structured model collapses to a dynamically equivalent unstructured one in terms of total biomass. The only biologically meaningful case where this occurs is when body size does not affect any of the population dynamic processes, this is the case if and only if the mass-specific ingestion rate, the mass-specific biomass production and the mortality rate of the individuals are independent of size, a condition to which we refer as “ontogenetic symmetry”. Intriguingly, under ontogenetic symmetry the equilibrium biomass-body size spectrum is proportional to 1/size, a form that has been conjectured for marine size spectra and subsequently has been used as prior assumption in theoretical papers dealing with the latter. As a next step we consider an archetypical class of models in which reproduction takes over from growth upon reaching an adult body size, in order to determine how quickly discrepancies from ontogenetic symmetry lead to relevant novel population dynamical phenomena. The phenomena considered are biomass overcompensation, when additional imposed mortality leads, rather unexpectedly, to an increase in the equilibrium biomass of either the juveniles or the adults (a phenomenon with potentially big consequences for predators of the species), and the occurrence of two types of size-structure driven oscillations, juvenile-driven cycles with separated extended cohorts, and adult-driven cycles in which periodically a front of relatively steeply decreasing frequencies moves up the size distribution. A small discrepancy from symmetry can already lead to biomass overcompensation; size-structure driven cycles only occur for somewhat larger discrepancies.     

Predation yields greater population performance: what are the contributions of density‐ and trait‐mediated effects?

1. Population responses to extrinsic mortality can yield no change in the number of survivors (compensation) or an increase in the number of survivors (overcompensation) when the population is regulated by negative density‐dependence. This intriguing response has been the subject of theoretical studies, but few experiments have explored how the source of extrinsic mortality affects the response.
2. This study tests abilities of three functionally diverse predators, alone and combined, to induce (over)compensation of a prey population. Larval Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) were exposed to predation by Mesocyclops longisetus (Crustacea: Copepoda), Anopheles barberi (Diptera: Culicidae), Corethrella appendiculata (Diptera: Corethrellidae), all three in a substitutive design, or no predation.
3. Predator treatment had no significant effect on the total number of adult survivors, nor on numbers of surviving males or females. The female development rate and a composite index of performance (r′) were greater with predation relative to no‐predator control. No differences were detected between diverse and single‐species predator treatments.
4. Sensitivity analyses indicated predation effects on the number of female adults produced, despite not being affected significantly, was the largest contributing factor to significant treatment effects on the demographic index r′. While predation did not significantly increase the production of adults, it did release survivors from density‐dependent effects sufficiently to increase population performance. This study provides an empirical test of mechanisms by which predation may yield positive mortality effects on victim populations, a phenomenon predicted to occur across many taxa and food webs.

     

Predators reverse the direction of density dependence for juvenile salmon mortality

The effect of predators on prey populations depends on how predator-caused mortality changes with prey population density. Predators can enforce density-dependent prey mortality and contribute to population stability, but only if they have a positive numerical or behavioral response to increased prey density. Otherwise, predator saturation can result in inversely density-dependent mortality, destabilizing prey populations and increasing extinction risk. Juvenile salmon and trout provide some of the clearest empirical examples of density-dependent mortality in animal populations. However, although juvenile salmon are very vulnerable to predators, the demographic effects of predators on juvenile salmon are unknown. We tested the interactive effects of predators and population density on the mortality of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) using controlled releases of salmon in natural streams. We introduced newly hatched juvenile salmon at three population density treatments in six study streams, half of which contained slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus), a common generalist predator (18 release sites in total, repeated over two summers). Sculpin reversed the direction of density dependence for juvenile salmon mortality. Salmon mortality was density dependent in streams with no sculpin, but inversely density dependent in streams where sculpin were abundant. Such predator-mediated inverse density dependence is especially problematic for prey populations suppressed by other factors, thereby presenting a fundamental challenge to persistence of rare populations and restoration of extirpated populations.     

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (∼20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.     

Common garden experiments reveal uncommon responses across temperatures,locations, and species of ants

Population changes and shifts in geographic range boundaries induced by climate change have been documented for many insect species. On the basis of such studies, ecological forecasting models predict that, in the absence of dispersal and resource barriers, many species will exhibit large shifts in abundance and geographic range in response to warming. However, species are composed of individual populations, which may be subject to different selection pressures and therefore may be differentially responsive to environmental change. Asystematic responses across populations and species to warming will alter ecological communities differently across space. Common garden experiments can provide a more mechanistic understanding of the causes of compositional and spatial variation in responses to warming. Such experiments are useful for determining if geographically separated populations and co‐occurring species respond differently to warming, and they provide the opportunity to compare effects of warming on fitness (survivorship and reproduction). We exposed colonies of two common ant species in the eastern United States, Aphaenogaster rudis and Temnothorax curvispinosus, collected along a latitudinal gradient from Massachusetts to North Carolina, to growth chamber treatments that simulated current and projected temperatures in central Massachusetts and central North Carolina within the next century. Regardless of source location, colonies of A. rudis, a keystone seed disperser, experienced high mortality and low brood production in the warmest temperature treatment. Colonies of T. curvispinosus from cooler locations experienced increased mortality in the warmest rearing temperatures, but colonies from the warmest locales did not. Our results suggest that populations of some common species may exhibit uniform declines in response to warming across their geographic ranges, whereas other species will respond differently to warming in different parts of their geographic ranges. Our results suggest that differential responses of populations and species must be incorporated into projections of range shifts in a changing climate.     

Population and individual elephant response to a catastrophic fire in Pilanesberg National Park

In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality) and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress) levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability), did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern seen in predator-free large ungulate populations, i.e. mainly involving juveniles. Fire therefore functions in a similar manner to other environmental catastrophes and may be a natural mechanism contributing to population limitation. Welfare concerns of arson fires, burning during "hot-fire" conditions and the conservation implications of fire suppression (i.e. removal of a potential contributing factor to natural population regulation) should be integrated into fire management strategies for conservation areas.