Comparing the effects of rapid evolution and phenotypic plasticity on predator-prey dynamics

Ecologists have increasingly focused on how rapid adaptive trait changes can affect population dynamics. Rapid adaptation can result from either rapid evolution or phenotypic plasticity, but their effects on population dynamics are seldom compared directly. Here we examine theoretically the effects of rapid evolution and phenotypic plasticity of antipredatory defense on predator-prey dynamics. Our analyses reveal that phenotypic plasticity tends to stabilize population dynamics more strongly than rapid evolution. It is therefore important to know the mechanism by which phenotypic variation is generated for predicting the dynamics of rapidly adapting populations. We next examine an advantage of a phenotypically plastic prey genotype over the polymorphism of specialist prey genotypes. Numerical analyses reveal that the plastic genotype, if there is a small cost for maintaining it, cannot coexist with the pairs of specialist counterparts unless the system has a limit cycle. Furthermore, for the plastic genotype to replace specialist genotypes, a forced environmental fluctuation is critical in a broad parameter range. When these results are combined, the plastic genotype enjoys an advantage with population oscillations, but plasticity tends to lose its advantage by stabilizing the oscillations. This dilemma leads to an interesting intermittent limit cycle with the changing frequency of phenotypic plasticity.     

The combined effects of temporal autocorrelation and the costs of plasticity on the evolution of plasticity

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity is an important source of intraspecific variation, and for many plastic traits, the costs or factors limiting plasticity seem cryptic. However, there are several different factors that may constrain the evolution of plasticity, but few models have considered costs and limiting factors simultaneously. Here we use a simulation model to investigate how the optimal level of plasticity in a population depends on a fixed maintenance fitness cost for plasticity or an incremental fitness cost for producing a plastic response in combination with environmental unpredictability (environmental fluctuation speed) limiting plasticity. Our model identifies two mechanisms that act, almost separately, to constrain the evolution of plasticity: (i) the fitness cost of plasticity scaled by the nonplastic environmental tolerance, and (ii) the environmental fluctuation speed scaled by the rate of phenotypic change. That is, the evolution of plasticity is constrained by the high cost of plasticity in combination with high tolerance for environmental variation, or fast environmental changes in combination with slow plastic response. Qualitatively similar results are found when maintenance and incremental fitness costs of plasticity are incorporated, although a larger degree of plasticity is selected for with an incremental cost. Our model highlights that it is important to consider direct fitness costs and phenotypic limitations in relation to nonplastic environmental tolerance and environmental fluctuations, respectively, to understand what constrains the evolution of phenotypic plasticity.     

Rapid differentiation of plasticity in life history and morphology during invasive range expansion and concurrent local adaptation in the horned beetle Onthophagus taurus

Understanding the interplay between genetic differentiation, ancestral plasticity, and the evolution of plasticity during adaptation to environmental variation is critical to predict populations’ responses to environmental change. However, the role of plasticity in rapid adaptation in nature remains poorly understood. We here use the invasion of the horned beetle Onthophagus taurus in the United States during the last half century to study the contribution of ancestral plasticity and post-invasion evolution of plastic responses in rapid population differentiation. We document latitudinal variation in life history and morphology, including genetic compensation in development time and body size, likely adaptive responses to seasonal constraints in the North. However, clinal variation in development time and size was strongly dependent on rearing temperature, suggesting that population differentiation in plasticity played a critical role in successful adaptation on ecological timescales. Clinal variation in wing shape was independent of ancestral plasticity, but correlated with derived plasticity, consistent with evolutionary interdependence. In contrast, clinal variation in tibia shape aligned poorly with thermal plasticity. Overall, this study suggests that post-invasion evolution of plasticity contributed to range expansions and concurrent adaptation to novel climatic conditions.     

Plasticity versus canalization: population differences in the timing of shade-avoidance responses

The reliability of environmental cues and costs of a fixed phenotype are two factors determining whether selection favors phenotypic plasticity or environmental specialization. This study examines the relationship between these two factors and the evolution of plant competitive strategies (plastic vs. fixed morphologies). In natural plant populations, shifts in light quality associated with foliar shade reliably indicate the presence of neighbors. These cues mediate plastic stem-elongation responses that often increase competitive ability and access to light. Using experimental light treatments (full sun, neutral shade, and foliar shade), genetic differences among populations of Abutilon theophrasti (velvetleaf) in average elongation and plasticity to foliar-shade cues were examined. Six populations, two from each of three site types (fields in continuous corn cultivation, fields undergoing corn-soy rotation, and weedy sites), were exposed to the light treatments at two stages in their life history. At the seedling stage, populations derived from cornfield sites exhibited higher, average elongation than populations from either rotating corn-soy fields or weedy areas. Because seedling elongation may delay shading of velvetleaf by corn, population differences may reflect adaptive responses to directional selection imposed by competitive conditions. However, the effects of simulated foliar shade on elongation were three times as great as the average population differences, and these comparatively higher levels of elongation were associated with an allocation cost. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that phenotypic plasticity may limit the evolution of specialists; reliable environmental cues enable individuals to facultatively adopt highly elongated, costly phenotypes in crowded patches while avoiding the costs of that phenotype in less crowded microsites. At later life-history stages, populations experiencing competition with corn exhibited lower plasticity to light quality than populations derived from weedy areas. Elongation at later nodes is maladaptive in cornfields because velvetleaf is ultimately incapable of overtopping corn; individuals that elongate therefore experience the cost of allocating to stems but fail to improve leaf exposure. The decreased responsiveness of cornfield populations to light quality is consistent with theoretical predictions in which reduced plasticity is favored when environmental cues fail to mediate an adaptive response.     

A history of phenotypic plasticity accelerates adaptation to a new environment

Can a history of phenotypic plasticity increase the rate of adaptation to a new environment? Theory suggests it can be through two different mechanisms. Phenotypically plastic organisms can adapt rapidly to new environments through genetic assimilation, or the fluctuating environments that result in phenotypic plasticity can produce evolvable genetic architectures. In this article, I studied a model of a gene regulatory network that determined a phenotypic character in one population selected for phenotypic plasticity and a second population in a constant environment. A history of phenotypic plasticity increased the rate of adaptation in a new environment, but the amount of this increase was dependent on the strength of selection in the original environment. Phenotypic variance in the original environment predicted the adaptive capacity of the trait within, but not between, plastic and nonplastic populations. These results have implications for invasive species and ecological studies of rapid adaptation.     

WHEN DO ADAPTIVE PLASTICITY AND GENETIC EVOLUTION PREVENT EXTINCTION OF A DENSITY‐REGULATED POPULATION?

We study the dynamics of evolutionary recovery after an abrupt environmental shift in a density‐regulated population with evolving plasticity. Maladaptation to the new environment initially causes the population to decline, until adaptive phenotypic plasticity and genetic evolution restore positive population growth rate. We assume that selection on a quantitative trait is density‐independent and that the initial cost of plasticity is much lower than the benefit of the initial plastic response. The initial partially adaptive plasticity reduces the effective magnitude of the environmental shift, whereas evolution of plasticity increases the rate of adaptation. Both effects greatly facilitate population persistence. In contrast, density dependence of population growth always hinders persistence. With θ‐logistic population regulation, a lower value of θ produces a faster initial population decline and a higher extinction risk.     

The role of phenotypic plasticity in driving genetic evolution

Models of population divergence and speciation are often based on the assumption that differences between populations are due to genetic factors, and that phenotypic change is due to natural selection. It is equally plausible that some of the differences among populations are due to phenotypic plasticity. We use the metaphor of the adaptive landscape to review the role of phenotypic plasticity in driving genetic evolution. Moderate levels of phenotypic plasticity are optimal in permitting population survival in a new environment and in bringing populations into the realm of attraction of an adaptive peak. High levels of plasticity may increase the probability of population persistence but reduce the likelihood of genetic change, because the plastic response itself places the population close to a peak. Moderate levels of plasticity arise whenever multiple traits, some of which are plastic and others not, form a composite trait involved in the adaptive response. For example, altered behaviours may drive selection on morphology and physiology. Because there is likely to be a considerable element of chance in which behaviours become established, behavioural change followed by morphological and physiological evolution may be a potent force in driving evolution in novel directions. We assess the role of phenotypic plasticity in stimulating evolution by considering two examples from birds: (i) the evolution of red and yellow plumage coloration due to carotenoid consumption; and (ii) the evolution of foraging behaviours on islands. Phenotypic plasticity is widespread in nature and may speed up, slow down, or have little effect on evolutionary change. Moderate levels of plasticity may often facilitate genetic evolution but careful analyses of individual cases are needed to ascertain whether plasticity has been essential or merely incidental to population differentiation.     

Role of phenotypic plasticity and population differentiation in adaptation to novel environmental conditions

Species can adapt to new environmental conditions either through individual phenotypic plasticity, intraspecific genetic differentiation in adaptive traits, or both. Wild emmer wheat, Triticum dicoccoides, an annual grass with major distribution in Eastern Mediterranean region, is predicted to experience in the near future, as a result of global climate change, conditions more arid than in any part of the current species distribution. To understand the role of the above two means of adaptation, and the effect of population range position, we analyzed reaction norms, extent of plasticity, and phenotypic selection across two experimental environments of high and low water availability in two core and two peripheral populations of this species. We studied 12 quantitative traits, but focused primarily on the onset of reproduction and maternal investment, which are traits that are closely related to fitness and presumably involved in local adaptation in the studied species. We hypothesized that the population showing superior performance under novel environmental conditions will either be genetically differentiated in quantitative traits or exhibit higher phenotypic plasticity than the less successful populations. We found the core population K to be the most plastic in all three trait categories (phenology, reproductive traits, and fitness) and most successful among populations studied, in both experimental environments; at the same time, the core K population was clearly genetically differentiated from the two edge populations. Our results suggest that (1) two means of successful adaptation to new environmental conditions, phenotypic plasticity and adaptive genetic differentiation, are not mutually exclusive ways of achieving high adaptive ability; and (2) colonists from some core populations can be more successful in establishing beyond the current species range than colonists from the range extreme periphery with conditions seemingly closest to those in the new environment.     

Adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity in changing environments: Implications for sexual species with different life history strategies

Populations adapt to novel environmental conditions by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity. Plastic responses are generally faster and can buffer fitness losses under variable conditions. Plasticity is typically modeled as random noise and linear reaction norms that assume simple one‐to‐one genotype–phenotype maps and no limits to the phenotypic response. Most studies on plasticity have focused on its effect on population viability. However, it is not clear, whether the advantage of plasticity depends solely on environmental fluctuations or also on the genetic and demographic properties (life histories) of populations. Here we present an individual‐based model and study the relative importance of adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity for populations of sexual species with different life histories experiencing directional stochastic climate change. Environmental fluctuations were simulated using differentially autocorrelated climatic stochasticity or noise color, and scenarios of directional climate change. Nonadaptive plasticity was simulated as a random environmental effect on trait development, while adaptive plasticity as a linear, saturating, or sinusoidal reaction norm. The last two imposed limits to the plastic response and emphasized flexible interactions of the genotype with the environment. Interestingly, this assumption led to (a) smaller phenotypic than genotypic variance in the population (many‐to‐one genotype–phenotype map) and the coexistence of polymorphisms, and (b) the maintenance of higher genetic variation—compared to linear reaction norms and genetic determinism—even when the population was exposed to a constant environment for several generations. Limits to plasticity led to genetic accommodation, when costs were negligible, and to the appearance of cryptic variation when limits were exceeded. We found that adaptive plasticity promoted population persistence under red environmental noise and was particularly important for life histories with low fecundity. Populations producing more offspring could cope with environmental fluctuations solely by genetic changes or random plasticity, unless environmental change was too fast.     

The degree of adaptive phenotypic plasticity is correlated with the spatial environmental heterogeneity experienced by island populations of Rana temporaria

Although theoretical models have identified environmental heterogeneity as a prerequisite for the evolution of adaptive plasticity, this relationship has not yet been demonstrated experimentally. Because of pool desiccation risk, adaptation of development rate is important for many amphibians. In a simulated pool-drying experiment, we compared the development time and phenotypic plasticity in development time of populations of the common frog Rana temporaria, originating from 14 neighbouring islands off the coast of northern Sweden. Drying regime of pools used by frogs for breeding differed within and among the islands. We found that the degree of phenotypic plasticity in development time was positively correlated with the spatial variation in the pool-drying regimes present on each island. In addition, local adaptation in development time to the mean drying rate of the pools on each island was found. Hence, our study demonstrates the connection between environmental heterogeneity and developmental plasticity at the island population level, and also highlights the importance of the interplay between local specialization and phenotypic plasticity depending on the local selection pressures.     

Selection on phenotypic plasticity of morphological traits in response to flooding and competition in the clonal shore plant Ranunculus reptans

Adaptive evolution of phenotypic plasticity requires that plastic genotypes have the highest global fitness. We studied selection by spatial heterogeneity of interspecific competition and flooding, and by temporal heterogeneity of flooding on morphological plasticity of 52 genotypes of the clonal shore plant Ranunculus reptans. Competition reduced clone size, rosette size, leaf length and stolon internode thickness. Flooding had similar effects and reduced competition. Differences in selection between environments imply potential for either local adaptation or for indirect evolution of phenotypic plasticity. We also detected direct selection for plastic reductions in internode length in response to flooding and for a plastic increase in internode length in response to competition. Plastic responses of some morphological traits to flooding were in line with selection thereon, suggesting that they indeed are adaptive and might have evolved in response to direct selection on plasticity.     

Phenotypic plasticity: Eco-Devo and evolution

Phenotypic plasticity refers to the ability of an organism to alter its physiology/morphology/behavior in response to changes in environmental conditions. Although encompassing various phenomena spanning multi-ple levels of organization, most plastic responses seem to take place by altering gene expression and eventually altering ontogenetic trajectory in response to environmental variation. Epigenetic modifications provide a plausi-ble link between the environment and alterations in gene expression, and the alterations in phenotype based on environmentally induced epigenetic modifications can be inherited transgenerationally. Even closely related species and populations with different genotypes may exhibit differences in the patterns and the extents of plastic responses, indicating the wide existence of plasticity genes which are independent of trait means and directly respond to environmental stimuli by triggering phenotypic changes. The ability of plasticity is not only able to affect the adaptive evolution of species significantly, but is also an outcome of evolutionary processes. Therefore, phenotypic plasticity is a potentially important molder of adaptation and evolution.     

Spatio-Temporal Environmental Correlation and Population Variability in Simple Metacommunities

Natural populations experience environmental conditions that vary across space and over time. This variation is often correlated between localities depending on the geographical separation between them, and different species can respond to local environmental fluctuations similarly or differently, depending on their adaptation. How this emerging structure in environmental correlation (between-patches and between-species) affects spatial community dynamics is an open question. This paper aims at a general understanding of the interactions between the environmental correlation structure and population dynamics in spatial networks of local communities (metacommunities), by studying simple two-patch, two-species systems. Three different pairs of interspecific interactions are considered: competition, consumer–resource interaction, and host–parasitoid interaction. While the results paint a relatively complex picture of the effect of environmental correlation, the interaction between environmental forcing, dispersal, and local interactions can be understood via two mechanisms. While increasing between-patch environmental correlation couples immigration and local densities (destabilising effect), the coupling between local populations under increased between-species environmental correlation can either amplify or dampen population fluctuations, depending on the patterns in density dependence. This work provides a unifying framework for modelling stochastic metacommunities, and forms a foundation for a better understanding of population responses to environmental fluctuations in natural systems.     

A heuristic model on the role of plasticity in adaptive evolution: plasticity increases adaptation,population viability and genetic variation

An ongoing new synthesis in evolutionary theory is expanding our view of the sources of heritable variation beyond point mutations of fixed phenotypic effects to include environmentally sensitive changes in gene regulation. This expansion of the paradigm is necessary given ample evidence for a heritable ability to alter gene expression in response to environmental cues. In consequence, single genotypes are often capable of adaptively expressing different phenotypes in different environments, i.e. are adaptively plastic. We present an individual-based heuristic model to compare the adaptive dynamics of populations composed of plastic or non-plastic genotypes under a wide range of scenarios where we modify environmental variation, mutation rate and costs of plasticity. The model shows that adaptive plasticity contributes to the maintenance of genetic variation within populations, reduces bottlenecks when facing rapid environmental changes and confers an overall faster rate of adaptation. In fluctuating environments, plasticity is favoured by selection and maintained in the population. However, if the environment stabilizes and costs of plasticity are high, plasticity is reduced by selection, leading to genetic assimilation, which could result in species diversification. More broadly, our model shows that adaptive plasticity is a common consequence of selection under environmental heterogeneity, and hence a potentially common phenomenon in nature. Thus, taking adaptive plasticity into account substantially extends our view of adaptive evolution.     

Variable salinity tolerance in ascidian larvae is primarily a plastic response to the parental environment

Both phenotypic plasticity and local genetic adaptation may contribute to a species’ ability to inhabit different environmental conditions. While phenotypic plasticity is usually considered costly, local adaptation takes generations to respond to environmental change and may be constrained by strong gene flow. The majority of marine species have complex life-cycles with pelagic stages that might be expected to promote gene flow and plastic responses, and yet several notable examples of local adaptation have been found in species with broadcast larvae. In the ascidian, Ciona intestinalis (Linnaeus, 1767),—a common marine species with broadcast spawning and a short larval stage—previous studies have found marked differences in salinity tolerance of early life-history stages among populations from different salinity regimes. We used common-garden experiments to test whether observed differences in salinity tolerance could be explained by phenotypic plasticity. Adult ascidians from two low salinity populations [2–5 m depth, ~25 practical salinity units (PSU)], and two full salinity populations (25–27 m depth, ~31 PSU) were acclimated for 2–4 weeks at both 25 and 31 PSU. Gametes were fertilized at the acclimation salinities, and the newly formed embryos were transferred to 10 different salinities (21–39 PSU) and cultured to metamorphosis. Adult acclimation salinity had an overriding and significant effect on larval metamorphic success: tolerance norms for larvae almost fully matched the acclimation salinity of the parents, independent of parental origin (deep or shallow). However we also detected minor population differences that could be attributed to either local adaptation or persistent environmental effects. We conclude that differences in salinity tolerance of C. intestinalis larvae from different populations are driven primarily by transgenerational phenotypic plasticity, a strategy that seems particularly favourable for an organism living in coastal waters where salinity is less readily predicted than in the open oceans.     

Quantitative Assessment of the Importance of Phenotypic Plasticity in Adaptation to Climate Change in Wild Bird Populations

Predictions about the fate of species or populations under climate change scenarios typically neglect adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity, the two major mechanisms by which organisms can adapt to changing local conditions. As a consequence, we have little understanding of the scope for organisms to track changing environments by in situ adaptation. Here, we use a detailed individual-specific long-term population study of great tits (Parus major) breeding in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK to parameterise a mechanistic model and thus directly estimate the rate of environmental change to which in situ adaptation is possible. Using the effect of changes in early spring temperature on temporal synchrony between birds and a critical food resource, we focus in particular on the contribution of phenotypic plasticity to population persistence. Despite using conservative estimates for evolutionary and reproductive potential, our results suggest little risk of population extinction under projected local temperature change; however, this conclusion relies heavily on the extent to which phenotypic plasticity tracks the changing environment. Extrapolating the model to a broad range of life histories in birds suggests that the importance of phenotypic plasticity for adjustment to projected rates of temperature change increases with slower life histories, owing to lower evolutionary potential. Understanding the determinants and constraints on phenotypic plasticity in natural populations is thus crucial for characterising the risks that rapidly changing environments pose for the persistence of such populations.     

Morphological anti‐predator defences in the nine‐spined stickleback: constitutive,induced or both?

Environmental differences among populations are expected to lead to local adaptation, while spatial or temporal environmental variation within a population will favour evolution of phenotypic plasticity. As plasticity itself can be under selection, locally adapted populations can vary in levels of plasticity. Nine‐spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) originating from isolated ponds (low piscine predation risk, high competition) vs. lake and marine populations (high piscine predation risk, low competition) are known to be morphologically adapted to their respective environments. However, nothing is known about their ability to express phenotypic plasticity in morphology in response to perceived predation risk or food availability/competition. We studied predator‐induced phenotypic plasticity in body shape and armour of marine and pond nine‐spined stickleback in a factorial common garden experiment with two predator treatments (present vs. absent) and two feeding regimes (low vs. high). The predation treatment did not induce any morphological shifts in fish from either habitat or food regime. However, strong habitat‐dependent differences between populations as well as strong sexual dimorphism in both body shape and armour were found. The lack of predator‐induced plasticity in development of the defence traits (viz. body armour and body depth) suggests that morphological anti‐predator traits in nine‐spined stickleback are strictly constitutive, rather than inducible. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, ??, ??–??.     

Gene regulation,quantitative genetics and the evolution of reaction norms

Summary The ideas of phenotypic plasticity and of reaction norm are gaining prominence as important components of theories of phenotypic evolution. Our understanding of the role of phenotypic plasticity as an adaptation of organisms to variable environments will depend on (1) the form(s) of genetic and developmental control exerted on the shape of the reaction norm and (2) the nature of the constraints on the possible evolutionary trajectories in multiple environments. In this paper we identify two categories of genetic control of plasticity: allelic sensitivity and gene regulation. These correspond generally to two classes of response by the developmental system to environmental change: phenotypic modulation, in which plastic responses are a continuous and proportional function of environmental stimuli and developmental conversion, where responses tend to be not simply proportional to the stimuli. We propose that control of plasticity by regulatory actions has distinct advantages over simple allelic sensitivity: stability of phenotypic expression, capacity for anticipatory response and relaxation of constraints due to genetic correlations. We cite examples of the extensive molecular evidence for the existence of environmentally-cued gene regulation leading to developmental conversion. The results of quantitative genetic investigations on the genetics and evolution of plasticity, as well as the limits of current approaches are discussed. We suggest that evolution of reaction norms would be affected by the ecological context (i.e. spatial versus temporal variation, hard versus soft selection, and fine versus coarse environmental grain). We conclude by discussing some empirical approaches to address fundamental questions about plasticity evolution.