The Modeling of Global Epidemics: Stochastic Dynamics and Predictability

The global spread of emergent diseases is inevitably entangled with the structure of the population flows among different geographical regions. The airline transportation network in particular shrinks the geographical space by reducing travel time between the world's most populated areas and defines the main channels along which emergent diseases will spread. In this paper, we investigate the role of the large-scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global propagation pattern of emerging diseases. We put forward a stochastic computational framework for the modeling of the global spreading of infectious diseases that takes advantage of the complete International Air Transport Association 2002 database complemented with census population data. The model is analyzed by using for the first time an information theory approach that allows the quantitative characterization of the heterogeneity level and the predictability of the spreading pattern in presence of stochastic fluctuations. In particular we are able to assess the reliability of numerical forecast with respect to the intrinsic stochastic nature of the disease transmission and travel flows. The epidemic pattern predictability is quantitatively determined and traced back to the occurrence of epidemic pathways defining a backbone of dominant connections for the disease spreading. The presented results provide a general computational framework for the analysis of containment policies and risk forecast of global epidemic outbreaks. On leave from CEA-Centre d'Etudes de Bruyères-Le-Chatel, France.     

Genetic influence on disease spread following arrival of infected carriers

Epidemiology in host meta-populations depends on parasite ability to disperse between, establish and persist in distinct sub-populations of hosts. We studied the genetic factors determining the short-term establishment, and long-term maintenance, of pathogens introduced by infected hosts (i.e. carriers) into recipient populations. We used experimental populations of the freshwater ciliate Paramecium caudatum and its bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Parasite short-term spread (approximately one horizontal transmission cycle) was affected mainly by carrier genotype, and its interactions with parasite and recipient genotypes. By contrast, parasite longer term spread (2-3 horizontal transmission cycles) was mostly determined by parasite isolate. Importantly, measures of parasite short-term success (reproductive number, R) were not good predictors for longer term prevalence, probably because of the specific interactions between host and parasite genotypes. Analogous to variation in vectorial capacity and super-spreader occurrence, two crucial components of epidemiology, we show that carrier genotype can also affect disease spread within meta-populations.     

Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences

Networks are ubiquitous in natural, technological and social systems. They are of increasing relevance for improved understanding and control of infectious diseases of plants, animals and humans, given the interconnectedness of today's world. Recent modelling work on disease development in complex networks shows: the relative rapidity of pathogen spread in scale-free compared with random networks, unless there is high local clustering; the theoretical absence of an epidemic threshold in scale-free networks of infinite size, which implies that diseases with low infection rates can spread in them, but the emergence of a threshold when realistic features are added to networks (e.g. finite size, household structure or deactivation of links); and the influence on epidemic dynamics of asymmetrical interactions. Models suggest that control of pathogens spreading in scale-free networks should focus on highly connected individuals rather than on mass random immunization. A growing number of empirical applications of network theory in human medicine and animal disease ecology confirm the potential of the approach, and suggest that network thinking could also benefit plant epidemiology and forest pathology, particularly in human-modified pathosystems linked by commercial transport of plant and disease propagules. Potential consequences for the study and management of plant and tree diseases are discussed.     

Modeling epidemic spread with awareness and heterogeneous transmission rates in networks

During an epidemic outbreak in a human population, susceptibility to infection can be reduced by raising awareness of the disease. In this paper, we investigate the effects of three forms of awareness (i.e., contact, local, and global) on the spread of a disease in a random network. Connectivity-correlated transmission rates are assumed. By using the mean-field theory and numerical simulation, we show that both local and contact awareness can raise the epidemic thresholds while the global awareness cannot, which mirrors the recent results of Wu et al. The obtained results point out that individual behaviors in the presence of an infectious disease has a great influence on the epidemic dynamics. Our method enriches mean-field analysis in epidemic models.     

Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: modelling disease spread with partial data

‘Big-data’ epidemic models are being increasingly used to influence government policy to help with control and eradication of infectious diseases. In the case of livestock, detailed movement records have been used to parametrize realistic transmission models. While livestock movement data are readily available in the UK and other countries in the EU, in many countries around the world, such detailed data are not available. By using a comprehensive database of the UK cattle trade network, we implement various sampling strategies to determine the quantity of network data required to give accurate epidemiological predictions. It is found that by targeting nodes with the highest number of movements, accurate predictions on the size and spatial spread of epidemics can be made. This work has implications for countries such as the USA, where access to data is limited, and developing countries that may lack the resources to collect a full dataset on livestock movements.     

Social networks of disease spread in the lower Illinois valley: a simulation approach

This study illustrates the use of disease modeling and simulation techniques to the study of the spread of disease within and between social networks. A Reed-Frost type model of disease spread is used to construct a simulation of the spread of tuberculosis within three prehistoric populations of the Lower Illinois River Valley during Middle Woodland, Late Woodland, and Mississippian times. A high and low population size was modeled for each time period. Late Woodland model 2 (low population estimate) is the only model that experienced pathogen extinction with host survival. The rest of the models experienced rapid and severe host population decline. The results of the simulation suggest that a social network size of between 180 and 440 persons is required under the conditions of this model for host-pathogen coexistence (i.e., endemicity) to occur. The severe population decline experienced by these populations suggests that tuberculosis as modeled here could not have existed in these populations. Future refinements of modeling and simulation techniques can provide additional insights into how disease spreads among social contacts.     

Brain functional network modeling and analysis based on fMRI: a systematic review

In recent years, the number of patients with neurodegenerative diseases (i.e., Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, mild cognitive impairment) and mental disorders (i.e., depression, anxiety and schizophrenia) have increased dramatically. Researchers have found that complex network analysis can reveal the topology of brain functional networks, such as small-world, scale-free, etc. In the study of brain diseases, it has been found that these topologies have undergoed abnormal changes in different degrees. Therefore, the research of brain functional networks can not only provide a new perspective for understanding the pathological mechanism of neurological and psychiatric diseases, but also provide assistance for the early diagnosis. Focusing on the study of human brain functional networks, this paper reviews the research results in recent years. First, this paper introduces the background of the study of brain functional networks under complex network theory and the important role of topological properties in the study of brain diseases. Second, the paper describes how to construct a brain functional network using neural image data. Third, the common methods of functional network analysis, including network structure analysis and disease classification, are introduced. Fourth, the role of brain functional networks in pathological study, analysis and diagnosis of brain functional diseases is studied. Finally, the paper summarizes the existing studies of brain functional networks and points out the problems and future research directions.     

Extinction times for closed epidemics: the effects of host spatial structure

Although of practical importance, the relationship between the duration of an epidemic and host spatial structure is poorly understood. Here we use a stochastic metapopulation model for the transmission of infection in a spatially structured host population. There are three qualitatively different regimes for the extinction time, which depend on patch population size, the within‐patch basic reproductive number and the strength of coupling between patches. In the first regime, the extinction time for the metapopulation (i.e. from all patches) is approximately equal to the extinction time for a single patch. In the second regime, the metapopulation extinction time is maximal but also highly variable. In the third regime, the extinction time for the metapopulation (T_E) is given by T_E = a + bn^1/2 where a is the local extinction time (i.e. from last patch), b is the transit time (i.e. the time taken for infection to spread from one patch to another) and n is the total number of patches.     

The deterministic limit of infectious disease models with dynamic partners

This paper analyzes the large population dynamics of an infectious disease model with contacts that occur during partnerships. The model allows for concurrent partnerships following a very broad class of dynamic laws. Previous work, with a stochastic version of the model, computed the reproductive number, the initial growth rate, and the final size. In the present paper, the deterministic system that is the limit for large populations is constructed. The construction is unusual in requiring two different scaling factors. Next, the approximation used by Watts and May for a related model is compared with the exact solution. This approximation is most accurate at the beginning of the epidemic and when partnerships are short. Lastly, the model is generalized to allow dependencies among partnerships. This generalization permits proportional mixing with an arbitrary distribution on the number of partners.     

Comparative protein analysis of the chitin metabolic pathway in extant organisms: A complex network approach

Chitin is a structural endogenous carbohydrate, which is a major component of fungal cell walls and arthropod exoskeletons. A renewable resource and the second most abundant polysaccharide in nature after cellulose, chitin is currently used for waste water clearing, cosmetics, medical, and veterinary applications. This work comprises data mining of protein sequences related to the chitin metabolic pathway of completely sequenced genomes of extant organisms pertaining to the three life domains, followed by meta-analysis using traditional sequence similarity comparison and complex network approaches. Complex networks involving proteins of the chitin metabolic pathway in extant organisms were constructed based on protein sequence similarity. Several usual network indices were estimated in order to obtain information on the topology of these networks, including those related to higher order neighborhood properties. Due to the assumed evolutionary character of the system, we also discuss issues related to modularity properties, with the concept of edge betweenness playing a particularly important role in our analysis. Complex network approach correctly identifies clusters of organisms that belong to phylogenetic groups without any a priori knowledge about the biological features of the investigated protein sequences. We envisage the prospect of using such a complex network approach as a high-throughput phylogenetic method.     

Evolution of robust and efficient system topologies

Mutation/selection algorithms were applied to increase the efficiency and the robustness of sparse random networks. Selection for better efficiency leads to the well-known star topology, while selection for robustness only results in a relatively dense core and a small periphery. Concomitant selection for both efficiency and robustness leads to networks with intermittent center/periphery values. Networks evolving under multiple attack regimes develop distinct topologies with larger cores, and are characterized by parameter distributions different from those developing under single-attack regimes.     

Complexity and stability of ecological networks: a review of the theory

Our planet is changing at paces never observed before. Species extinction is happening at faster rates than ever, greatly exceeding the five mass extinctions in the fossil record. Nevertheless, our lives are strongly based on services provided by ecosystems, thus the responses to global change of our natural heritage are of immediate concern. Understanding the relationship between complexity and stability of ecosystems is of key importance for the maintenance of the balance of human growth and the conservation of all the natural services that ecosystems provide. Mathematical network models can be used to simplify the vast complexity of the real world, to formally describe and investigate ecological phenomena, and to understand ecosystems propensity of returning to its functioning regime after a stress or a perturbation. The use of ecological-network models to study the relationship between complexity and stability of natural ecosystems is the focus of this review. The concept of ecological networks and their characteristics are first introduced, followed by central and occasionally contrasting definitions of complexity and stability. The literature on the relationship between complexity and stability in different types of models and in real ecosystems is then reviewed, highlighting the theoretical debate and the lack of consensual agreement. The summary of the importance of this line of research for the successful management and conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services concludes the review.     

One-hit stochastic decline in a mechanochemical model of cytoskeleton-induced neuron death I: cell-fate arrival times

Much experimental evidence shows that the cytoskeleton is a downstream target and effector during cell death in numerous neurodegenerative diseases, including Parkinson's, Huntington's, and Alzheimer's diseases. However, recent evidence indicates that cytoskeletal dysfunction can also trigger neuronal death, by mechanisms as yet poorly understood. This is the first of two papers in which we study a mathematical model of cytoskeleton-induced neuron death. In our model, assembly control of the neuronal cytoskeleton interacts with both cellular stress levels and cytosolic free radical concentrations to trigger neurodegeneration. This trigger mechanism is further modulated by the presence of cell interactions in the form of a diffusible toxic factor released by dying neurons. We find that, consistent with empirical observations, our model produces one-hit exponential and sigmoid patterns of cell dropout. In all cases, cell dropout is exponential-tailed and described accurately by a gamma distribution. The transition between exponential and sigmoidal is gradual, and determined by a synergetic interaction between the magnitude of fluctuations in cytoskeleton assembly control and by the degree of cell coupling. We conclude that a single mechanism involving neuron interactions and fluctuations in cytoskeleton assembly control is compatible with the experimentally observed range of neuronal attrition kinetics.     

Formation of feedforward networks and frequency synchrony by spike-timing-dependent plasticity

Spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) with asymmetric learning windows is commonly found in the brain and useful for a variety of spike-based computations such as input filtering and associative memory. A natural consequence of STDP is establishment of causality in the sense that a neuron learns to fire with a lag after specific presynaptic neurons have fired. The effect of STDP on synchrony is elusive because spike synchrony implies unitary spike events of different neurons rather than a causal delayed relationship between neurons. We explore how synchrony can be facilitated by STDP in oscillator networks with a pacemaker. We show that STDP with asymmetric learning windows leads to self-organization of feedforward networks starting from the pacemaker. As a result, STDP drastically facilitates frequency synchrony. Even though differences in spike times are lessened as a result of synaptic plasticity, the finite time lag remains so that perfect spike synchrony is not realized. In contrast to traditional mechanisms of large-scale synchrony based on mutual interaction of coupled neurons, the route to synchrony discovered here is enslavement of downstream neurons by upstream ones. Facilitation of such feedforward synchrony does not occur for STDP with symmetric learning windows. Action Editor: Wulfram Gerstner     

Dynamics of unperturbed and noisy generalized Boolean networks

For years, we have been building models of gene regulatory networks, where recent advances in molecular biology shed some light on new structural and dynamical properties of such highly complex systems. In this work, we propose a novel timing of updates in random and scale-free Boolean networks, inspired by recent findings in molecular biology. This update sequence is neither fully synchronous nor asynchronous, but rather takes into account the sequence in which genes affect each other. We have used both Kauffman's original model and Aldana's extension, which takes into account the structural properties about known parts of actual GRNs, where the degree distribution is right-skewed and long-tailed. The computer simulations of the dynamics of the new model compare favorably to the original ones and show biologically plausible results both in terms of attractors number and length. We have complemented this study with a complete analysis of our systems’ stability under transient perturbations, which is one of biological networks defining attribute. Results are encouraging, as our model shows comparable and usually even better behavior than preceding ones without loosing Boolean networks attractive simplicity.