Synergies among extinction drivers under global change

If habitat destruction or overexploitation of populations is severe, species loss can occur directly and abruptly. Yet the final descent to extinction is often driven by synergistic processes (amplifying feedbacks) that can be disconnected from the original cause of decline. We review recent observational, experimental and meta-analytic work which together show that owing to interacting and self-reinforcing processes, estimates of extinction risk for most species are more severe than previously recognised. As such, conservation actions which only target single-threat drivers risk being inadequate because of the cascading effects caused by unmanaged synergies. Future work should focus on how climate change will interact with and accelerate ongoing threats to biodiversity, such as habitat degradation, overexploitation and invasive species.     

Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

Many of the world''s languages face serious risk of extinction. Efforts to prevent this cultural loss are severely constrained by a poor understanding of the geographical patterns and drivers of extinction risk. We quantify the global distribution of language extinction risk—represented by small range and speaker population sizes and rapid declines in the number of speakers—and identify the underlying environmental and socioeconomic drivers. We show that both small range and speaker population sizes are associated with rapid declines in speaker numbers, causing 25% of existing languages to be threatened based on criteria used for species. Language range and population sizes are small in tropical and arctic regions, particularly in areas with high rainfall, high topographic heterogeneity and/or rapidly growing human populations. By contrast, recent speaker declines have mainly occurred at high latitudes and are strongly linked to high economic growth. Threatened languages are numerous in the tropics, the Himalayas and northwestern North America. These results indicate that small-population languages remaining in economically developed regions are seriously threatened by continued speaker declines. However, risks of future language losses are especially high in the tropics and in the Himalayas, as these regions harbour many small-population languages and are undergoing rapid economic growth.     

Contemporary climate change alters the pace and drivers of extinction

Contemporary climate change is expected to affect the distributions of most species, but the nature, tempo, and mechanics of contemporary range shifts are still largely speculative. Here, we use fine‐scale distributional records developed over the past Century, combined with spatially comprehensive microclimatic data, to demonstrate a dramatic shift in the range of a climate‐sensitive mammal and to infer the increasingly important role of climate in local extinctions of this species across a 38.2 million‐ha area. Changes in the distribution of the American pika (Ochotona princeps) throughout the Great Basin ecoregion were characterized using records from 1898–2008, revealing a nearly five‐fold increase in the rate of local extinction and an 11‐fold increase in the rate of upslope range retraction during the last ten years, compared with during the 20th Century. Four of ten local pika extinctions have occurred since 1999, and across this ecoregion the low‐elevation range boundary for this species is now moving upslope at an average rate of about 145 m per decade. The rapid, ecoregional range shift of this small, talus‐dwelling species stands in remarkable contrast with the dynamics and determinants of endangerment previously observed for most terrestrial species, and to earlier extinction determinants for O. princeps in this region. Further investigation of widely distributed species will clarify rates at which biotic response to environmental change is occurring, and how factors driving that change are evolving in different portions of the earth.     

Ranavirus could facilitate local extinction of rare amphibian species

Oecologia - There is growing evidence that pathogens play a role in population declines and species extinctions. For small populations, disease-induced extinction may be especially probable. We...     

Human impacts and the global distribution of extinction risk

Understanding the global geographical distribution of extinction risk is a key challenge in conservation biology. It remains controversial, however, to what extent areas become threat hotspots simply because of high human impacts or due to predisposing ecological conditions. Limits to the taxonomic and geographical extent, resolution and quality of previously available data have precluded a full global assessment of the relative roles of these factors. Here, we use a new global database on the geographical distributions of birds on continents and continental islands to show that, after controlling for species richness, the best predictors of the global pattern of extinction risk are measures of human impact. Ecological gradients are of secondary importance at a global scale. The converse is true for individual biogeographic realms, within which variation in human impact is reduced and its influence on extinction risk globally is therefore underestimated. These results underline the importance of a global perspective on the mechanisms driving spatial patterns of extinction risk, and the key role of anthropogenic factors in driving the current extinction crisis.     

Environmental drivers of crocodyliform extinction across the Jurassic/Cretaceous transition

Crocodyliforms have a much richer evolutionary history than represented by their extant descendants, including several independent marine and terrestrial radiations during the Mesozoic. However, heterogeneous sampling of their fossil record has obscured their macroevolutionary dynamics, and obfuscated attempts to reconcile external drivers of these patterns. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of crocodyliform biodiversity through the Jurassic/Cretaceous (J/K) transition using subsampling and phylogenetic approaches and apply maximum-likelihood methods to fit models of extrinsic variables to assess what mediated these patterns. A combination of fluctuations in sea-level and episodic perturbations to the carbon and sulfur cycles was primarily responsible for both a marine and non-marine crocodyliform biodiversity decline through the J/K boundary, primarily documented in Europe. This was tracked by high extinction rates at the boundary and suppressed origination rates throughout the Early Cretaceous. The diversification of Eusuchia and Notosuchia likely emanated from the easing of ecological pressure resulting from the biodiversity decline, which also culminated in the extinction of the marine thalattosuchians in the late Early Cretaceous. Through application of rigorous techniques for estimating biodiversity, our results demonstrate that it is possible to tease apart the complex array of controls on diversification patterns in major archosaur clades.     

Extrinsic versus intrinsic factors in the decline and extinction of Australian marsupials

Recent attempts to explain the susceptibility of vertebrates to declines worldwide have largely focused on intrinsic factors such as body size, reproductive potential, ecological specialization, geographical range and phylogenetic longevity. Here, we use a database of 145 Australian marsupial species to test the effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors in a multivariate comparative approach. We model five intrinsic (body size, habitat specialization, diet, reproductive rate and range size) and four extrinsic (climate and range overlap with introduced foxes, sheep and rabbits) factors. We use quantitative measures of geographical range contraction as indices of decline. We also develop a new modelling approach of phylogenetically independent contrasts combined with imputation of missing values to deal simultaneously with phylogenetic structuring and missing data. One extrinsic variable-geographical range overlap with sheep-was the only consistent predictor of declines. Habitat specialization was independently but less consistently associated with declines. This suggests that extrinsic factors largely determine interspecific variation in extinction risk among Australian marsupials, and that the intrinsic factors that are consistently associated with extinction risk in other vertebrates are less important in this group. We conclude that recent anthropogenic changes have been profound enough to affect species on a continent-wide scale, regardless of their intrinsic biology.     

Evolutionary age and risk of extinction in the global avifauna

Species at high risk of extinction are not distributed at random among higher taxa. Here we demonstrate that there is a positive relationship between the proportion of species in a taxon which are considered to be threatened and the evolutionary age of that taxon, both for the global avifauna and the avifauna of the New World. The potential mechanisms and consequences of the relationship are examined.     

Amphibian decline and extinction: what we know and what we need to learn

For over 350 million yr, thousands of amphibian species have lived on Earth. Since the 1980s, amphibians have been disappearing at an alarming rate, in many cases quite suddenly. What is causing these declines and extinctions? In the modern era (post 1500) there are 6 leading causes of biodiversity loss in general, and all of these acting alone or together are responsible for modern amphibian declines: commercial use; introduced/exotic species that compete with, prey on, and parasitize native frogs and salamanders; land use change; contaminants; climate change; and infectious disease. The first 3 causes are historical in the sense that they have been operating for hundreds of years, although the rate of change due to each accelerated greatly after about the mid-20th century. Contaminants, climate change, and emerging infectious diseases are modern causes suspected of being responsible for the so-called 'enigmatic decline' of amphibians in protected areas. Introduced/exotic pathogens, land use change, and infectious disease are the 3 causes with a clear role in amphibian decline as well as extinction; thus far, the other 3 causes are only implicated in decline and not extinction. The present work is a review of the 6 causes with a focus on pathogens and suggested areas where new research is needed. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a chytrid fungus that is an emerging infectious disease causing amphibian population decline and species extinction. Historically, pathogens have not been seen as a major cause of extinction, but Bd is an exception, which is why it is such an interesting, important pathogen to understand. The late 20th and early 21st century global biodiversity loss is characterized as a sixth extinction event. Amphibians are a striking example of these losses as they disappear at a rate that greatly exceeds historical levels. Consequently, modern amphibian decline and extinction is a lens through which we can view the larger story of biodiversity loss and its consequences.     

Global stressors and the global decline of amphibians: tipping the stress immunocompetency axis

There is a widespread consensus that the earth is experiencing a mass extinction event and at the forefront are amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa. A recent assessment found that nearly one-third (32%, 1,856 species) of the world’s amphibian species are threatened. Amphibians have existed on the earth for over 300 million years, yet in just the last two decades there have been an alarming number of extinctions, nearly 168 species are believed to have gone extinct and at least 2,469 (43%) more have populations that are declining. Infectious diseases have been recognized as one major cause of worldwide amphibian population declines. This could be the result of the appearance of novel pathogens, or it could be that exposure to environmental stressors is increasing the susceptibility of amphibians to opportunistic pathogens. Here I review the potential effects of stressors on disease susceptibility in amphibians and relate this to disease emergence in human and other wildlife populations. I will present a series of case studies that illustrate the role of stress in disease outbreaks that have resulted in amphibian declines. First, I will examine how elevated sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific since the mid-1970s have affected climate over much of the world and could be setting the stage for pathogen-mediated amphibian declines in many regions. Finally, I will discuss how the apparently rapid increase in the prevalence of amphibian limb deformities is linked to the synergistic effects of trematode infection and exposure to chemical contaminants.     

Reconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time

Predicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typically cannot be applied to the data from the fossil record. However, the detailed historical and fossil records of the New Zealand avifauna provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct a complete, large faunal assemblage for different periods in the past. Using the first complete phylogeny of all known native New Zealand bird species, both extant and extinct, we show how the taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity of extinction, and biological correlates of extinction, change from the pre-human period through Polynesian and European occupation, to the present. These changes can be explained both by changes in primary threatening processes, and by the operation of extinction filter effects. The variable patterns of extinction through time may confound attempts to identify risk factors that apply across time periods, and to infer future species declines from past extinction patterns and current threat status.     

Equilibrium of global amphibian species distributions with climate

A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a complete lineage across its entire distribution. We measure departures of equilibrium with contemporary climate for the distributions of the world amphibian species. Specifically, we fitted bioclimatic envelopes for 5544 species using three presence-only models. We then measured the proportion of the modeled envelope that is currently occupied by the species, as a metric of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. The assumption was that the greater the difference between modeled bioclimatic envelope and the occupied distribution, the greater the likelihood that species distribution would not be at equilibrium with contemporary climate. On average, amphibians occupied 30% to 57% of their potential distributions. Although patterns differed across regions, there were no significant differences among lineages. Species in the Neotropic, Afrotropics, Indo-Malay, and Palaearctic occupied a smaller proportion of their potential distributions than species in the Nearctic, Madagascar, and Australasia. We acknowledge that our models underestimate non equilibrium, and discuss potential reasons for the observed patterns. From a modeling perspective our results support the view that at global scale bioclimatic envelope models might perform similarly across lineages but differently across regions.     

Dryness increases predation risk in efts: support for an amphibian decline hypothesis

One hypothesis for amphibian declines is that increased dryness attributed to global climate change exposes amphibians to greater biotic threat and, consequently, greater mortality. But, little is known about behavioral responses of terrestrial amphibians to dry conditions alone or in combination with biotic threats. We used field observations and laboratory experiments to test the response of efts (terrestrial juveniles) of the eastern red-spotted newt, Notophthalmus viridescens, to separate and combined desiccation and predation risks. When only at risk of desiccation, efts moved into shade, traveled down slope, decreased activity, and adopted water-conserving postures. Efts also significantly reduced the rate of water loss by huddling and were attracted to chemical cues from conspecific efts but not from conspecific adults. Thus, efts have a variety of behaviors that reduce the risk of dehydration associated with climate change. When faced only with a predation risk, represented by adult and eft newt tissue extracts (alarm chemicals), efts reduced their activity and avoided alarm cues from both sources. When exposed to combined desiccation and predation risks, efts were less active than when exposed to either risk separately and avoided adult tissue extracts, but not eft extracts. These results suggest that under dry conditions, conspecific tissue extracts contain both attractive (huddling) and repulsive (predator-related) chemical components that induce offsetting behavioral responses. This is the first study to demonstrate moisture-dependent responses to conspecific rinses and alarm substances, underscoring the importance of considering environmental moisture and animal hydration in studies examining responses to conspecific odors and/or alarm chemicals. These results support the hypothesis that elevated dehydration risk may compromise anti-predator behavior and exacerbate amphibian population declines.     

Environmental and historical constraints on global patterns of amphibian richness

Our knowledge of the broad-scale ecology of vertebrate ectotherms remains very limited. Despite ongoing declines and sensitivity to environmental change, amphibian distributions are particularly poorly understood. We present a global analysis of contemporary environmental and historical constraints on amphibian richness, the first for an ectotherm clade at this scale. Amphibians are presumed to experience environmental constraints distinct from those of better studied endothermic taxa due to their stringent water requirements and the temperature dependence of their energetic costs and performance. Single environmental predictors set upper bounds on, but do not exclusively determine, amphibian richness. Accounting for differing regional histories of speciation and extinction helps resolve triangular or scattered relationships between core environmental predictors and amphibian richness, as the relationships' intercepts or slopes can vary regionally. While the magnitude of richness is strongly determined by regional history, within-region patterns are consistently jointly driven by water and temperature. This confirms that ecophysiological constraints extend to the broad scale. This coupling suggests that shifts in climatic regimes will probably have dramatic consequences for amphibians. Our results illustrate how the environmental and historical explanations of species richness gradients can be reconciled and how the perspectives are complements for understanding broad-scale patterns of diversity.     

Neotropical tadpoles influence stream benthos: evidence for the ecological consequences of decline in amphibian populations

1. Few studies have assessed the role of tadpoles in tropical streams, although they are often abundant and conspicuous components of these systems. Moreover, amphibian populations are declining around the globe, particularly stream‐dwelling species in tropical uplands, and the ecological consequences of these losses are not understood. 2. We chose a stream in the central Panamanian highlands, which has an intact fauna of stream‐breeding anurans, to examine the ecological consequences of amphibian losses. This site differs dramatically from sites in nearby western Panama and Costa Rica where anuran diversity and abundance have declined greatly in the last two decades. 3. We used an underwater electric field to create tadpole exclosures in runs, so that we could evaluate their influence on sediment dynamics and the abundance and community structure of algae and aquatic insects. Tadpoles reduced total sediments and both organic and inorganic fractions on substrata. Tadpoles also reduced algal abundance on substrata by approximately 50% and decreased algal biovolume. Gut content analyses showed that tadpoles consumed algae and sediments and we could see that algae and sediments were also displaced through bioturbation. 4. Atelopus zeteki, Rana warszewitschii, and Hyla spp. were the dominant larval anurans responsible for the effects observed. Visual surveys indicated that the densities of these taxa ranged from 23 (R. warszewitschii and Hyla spp. combined) to 43 m^?2 (A. zeteki) in runs. 5. The abundance of baetid mayflies was lower in tadpole exclosures compared with controls, and this was attributed to tadpoles facilitating mayfly feeding by removing sediments and exposing underlying periphyton. 6. Tadpoles affect the abundance and diversity of basal resources and other primary consumers, and thus influence food web dynamics and energy flow in these tropical streams. Catastrophic decline in stream‐breeding anuran populations will influence the structure and function of neotropical stream ecosystems.     

The global amphibian trade flows through Europe: the need for enforcing and improving legislation

The global amphibian trade is suspected to have brought several species to the brink of extinction, and has led to the spread of amphibian pathogens. Moreover, international trade is not regulated for ~98 % of species. Here we outline patterns and complexity underlying global amphibian trade, highlighting some loopholes that need to be addressed, focusing on the European Union. In spite of being one of the leading amphibian importers, the EU’s current legislation is insufficient to prevent overharvesting of those species in demand or the introduction and/or spread of amphibian pathogens into captive and wild populations. We suggest steps to improve the policy (implementation and enforcement) framework, including (i) an identifier specifically for amphibians in the World Customs Organisation’s harmonised system, (ii) Parties to CITES should strive to include more species in the CITES appendices, and (iii) restriction or suspension of trade of threatened species, restricted-range species, and species protected in their country of origin. Commercial trade should not put survival of amphibian species further at risk.     

Coral mortality versus structural collapse as drivers of corallivorous butterflyfish decline

As climate change increasingly threatens biodiversity, identifying specific drivers of species loss as well as the attributes of species most vulnerable to climatic disturbances is a key challenge to ecologists and conservationists. Here we assess the effects of coral loss versus declines in structural complexity on obligate and facultative coral feeding butterflyfishes on coral reefs in the central and western Indian Ocean. In the inner Seychelles, the abundance of the obligate coral feeding group declined markedly in response to live coral mortality (r ² = 0.48), but showed no further decline with respect to erosion of the physical matrix of the reef. Conversely, the facultative feeding group showed no decline in response to live coral loss, reflecting their feeding versatility; however they did decline in response to structural erosion of the reef framework (r ² = 0.26). There were no significant changes in either obligate or facultative corallivore abundances at a reference location (Chagos archipelago), highlighting that butterflyfish populations are stable in the absence of habitat disturbance. While specialised coral dependant fishes are highly vulnerable to coral loss caused by climate-induced coral bleaching, the structural collapse of dead coral colonies may have significant, but more variable, impacts across a wide range of fishes. If conservation and mitigation planning are to be effective, there is a clear need to better understand the mechanisms of reef structural collapse and the dynamics of system recovery following large-scale disturbance.     

Rapid global expansion of invertebrate fisheries: trends, drivers, and ecosystem effects

Background

Worldwide, finfish fisheries are receiving increasing assessment and regulation, slowly leading to more sustainable exploitation and rebuilding. In their wake, invertebrate fisheries are rapidly expanding with little scientific scrutiny despite increasing socio-economic importance.

Methods and Findings

We provide the first global evaluation of the trends, drivers, and population and ecosystem consequences of invertebrate fisheries based on a global catch database in combination with taxa-specific reviews. We also develop new methodologies to quantify temporal and spatial trends in resource status and fishery development. Since 1950, global invertebrate catches have increased 6-fold with 1.5 times more countries fishing and double the taxa reported. By 2004, 34% of invertebrate fisheries were over-exploited, collapsed, or closed. New fisheries have developed increasingly rapidly, with a decrease of 6 years (3 years) in time to peak from the 1950s to 1990s. Moreover, some fisheries have expanded further and further away from their driving market, encompassing a global fishery by the 1990s. 71% of taxa (53% of catches) are harvested with habitat-destructive gear, and many provide important ecosystem functions including habitat, filtration, and grazing.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that invertebrate species, which form an important component of the basis of marine food webs, are increasingly exploited with limited stock and ecosystem-impact assessments, and enhanced management attention is needed to avoid negative consequences for ocean ecosystems and human well-being.