Changes in adult annual survival rates in a western European population of the White Stork Ciconia ciconia

The population of the White Stork Ciconin ciconia in Alsace (northeastern France) has decreased considerably since 1961. Using recent captureerecapture models, we analysed resighting data on ringed birds resulting from a long-term ringing programme carried out in 1947–1985. Time-dependence and age-dependence in annual survival rates are examined with reference to environmental variables in the Sahel wintering area. Our results show a decrease in adult annual survival rate linked to the severity of the drought in the Sahelian zone.     

Desertification in the Sahel: a reinterpretation

The impact of human management, in particular livestock grazing, on the vegetation cover of the Sahel is still debated. In a range of studies, satellite images have been used to analyze the development of the Sahelian vegetation cover over time. These studies did not reveal any significant degradation of the Sahel in the last two decades. In this paper, we examine the ecological assumptions underlying the use of satellite imagery to analyze degradation of the Sahel. Specifically, we analyze the variability of the rain‐use efficiency (RUE), which is often used as an indicator for the state of the vegetation cover. We detect a fundamental flaw in the way RUE has been handled in most remote sensing studies; they ignored the relation between annual rainfall variation and RUE. Because of the upward trend in annual rainfall that occurred during the 1980s and 1990s, this leads to a bias in the interpretation of the satellite images. In this paper, we show the importance of the variability in RUE for the analysis of remote sensing imagery of semiarid rangelands. Our analysis also shows that it is likely that there has been anthropogenic degradation of the Sahelian vegetation cover in the last two decades. This has important consequences for the debate on the impacts of grazing on semiarid rangelands. Furthermore, the occurrence of anthropogenic degradation is relevant to explain the magnitude of 20th century Sahelian droughts. The analyses also indicate that the population of the Sahel may be more vulnerable for droughts than currently assumed.     

Disentangling the effects of environmental conditions on wintering and breeding grounds on age‐specific survival rates in a trans‐Saharan migratory raptor

Migratory species are subject to environmental variability occurring on breeding and wintering grounds. Estimating the relative contribution of environmental factors experienced sequentially during breeding and wintering, and their potential interaction, to the variation of survival is crucial to predict population viability of migratory species. Here we investigated this issue for the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus, a trans‐Saharan migrant. We analysed capture–recapture data from a 29‐year long monitoring of wing‐tagged offspring and adults at two study sites in France (Rochefort‐RO and Maine‐et‐Loire‐ML). The study period covers a climatic shift occurring in the Sahel with increasing rainfall following a period of droughts (Sahel greening). We found that harriers’ adult survival in RO (between 1988 and 2005) varied over time and was sensitive to the interaction between the amount of rainfall in the Sahel and the annual mean breeding success, two proxies of prey availability. The occurrence of adverse conditions on breeding and wintering grounds in the same year decreased survival from 0.70–0.77 to 0.48 ± 0.05. Juvenile survival in RO was slightly more sensitive to conditions in Europe than in the Sahel. Unexpectedly, lower survival rates were found in years with higher mean breeding success, suggesting compensatory density feedbacks may operate. By contrast, adult survival in ML, monitored between 1999 and 2017, was higher compared to RO (0.76 ± 0.03 versus 0.66 ± 0.02), remained constant and unaffected by any proxy of prey availability. This difference seems consistent with the fact that harriers in ML experienced better and especially less variable environmental conditions during breeding and wintering seasons compared to RO. Overall, we showed that survival of a migratory bird is sensitive to the level of variability in environmental conditions and that adverse conditions on wintering grounds can amplify the negative effects of conditions during the previous breeding season on birds’ survival.     

The persistent decline of patterned woody vegetation: The tiger bush in the context of the regional Sahel greening trend

Following 25 years of below average annual rainfall in the Sahel between 1970 and 1995, the return to more humid conditions has led to rapid postdrought recovery of the woody cover. However, the increase in the woody cover is not spatially homogeneous raising questions about the resilience of some woody vegetation types. Based on the analysis of field and remote sensing data collected on the tiger bush systems in the northern Sahel in Mali, this study noted the current and persistent degradation of these systems in the Sahel since the 1970s despite the recent improvement in rainfall since the mid‐1990s and the general Sahel re‐greening. Profound changes in the woody population pattern, tree density and cover, and floristic composition took place regardless of the site location along the south–north rainfall gradient. Associated with definite structural changes of the woody population, surface hydrology shifted from a sheet to concentrated run‐off accelerating the collapse of the patterned woody population. Currently, there is no evidence in favour of reversing the current degradation process, at least at a decadal scale, although very sparse recolonization by pioneer woody vegetation has been observed in the driest sites along recently formed gullies. These observations support the hypothesis of an ecosystem shift, with long‐term implications for the structure and functioning of the patterned vegetation, as well as the whole watershed landscape through increased run‐off leading to stronger water flows in enlarged wadis, increased soil erosion upstream and sediment deposition downstream, enhanced water storage in ponds, and greater recharge of aquifers, which is an illustration of the “Sahelian paradox”.     

Density‐dependent survival and recruitment in a long‐distance Palaearctic migrant,the Sand Martin Riparia riparia

Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat.     

Reassessing the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the sub-Saharan vegetation productivity

The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been shown to have a significant impact on the terrestrial ecosystem in the Sahelian region of Africa during the 1980s, and it has been strongly suggested that NAO may be a reliable predictor for the response of the Sahelian ecosystem to global climate variability. Using data from an extended period, we provide a reassessment for the impact of NAO on the Sahelian climate and ecosystem, and show that there is no consistent relationship between NAO and the ecosystem over Sahel. Statistical analysis on the NAO, vegetation, and precipitation data indicates that NAO influences the Sahelian vegetation productivity exclusively through its impact on precipitation. However, the relationship between the NAO index and Sahelian precipitation varies substantially with time. The correlation coefficient fluctuates between positive and negative values, and does not pass the 5% significance test during most of the twentieth century. The NAO system, although documented to govern the ecosystem dynamics over many other regions, does not have a consistent impact on the ecosystem over the Sahel. Therefore, the NAO index cannot produce a useful prediction on the ecosystem variability and changes in this region. This study provides an example that correlations based on short climate and ecological records (less than 20 years in this case) can be spurious and potentially misleading.     

Within population variation in the demography of Speyeria mormonia (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)

The adult demography of a population of Speyeria mormonia (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) near Gothic, Colorado USA was studied for four years. Values of demographic parameters, including survival, dispersal and sex ratio, varied yearly, without major changes in density. Shift in sex ratio with constant population numbers entails variation in effective population size among years. Flight period, catchability, relationship between body size and eclosion date, and significance of correlation between weather and daily survival rates differed between the sexes. Sexual dimorphism in correlation of wheather with survival rate may partially explain the lack of yearly variation in total population size. There was no significant sexual dimorphism in large scale habitat use, or in dispersal, except in 1982.
The demography of this insect is compared to that of related species of Argynnis and heliconiines, from the old world temperate zone and new world tropics, respectively. While some differences are observed which can be ascribed to differences in length of the growing season, many patterns are similar. This implies conservation of demographic traits, even across broad habitat and geographic areas.     

Dry season reproductive depression of Anopheles gambiae in the Sahel

The African malaria mosquito, Anopheles gambiae, is widespread south of the Sahara including in dry savannahs and semi-arid environments where no surface water exists for several months a year. Adults of the M form of An. gambiae persist through the long dry season, when no surface waters are available, by increasing their maximal survival from 4 weeks to 7 months. Dry season diapause (aestivation) presumably underlies this extended survival. Diapause in adult insects is intrinsically linked to depressed reproduction. To determine if reproduction of the Sahelian M form is depressed during the dry season, we assessed seasonal changes in oviposition, egg batch size, and egg development, as well as insemination rate and blood feeding in wild caught mosquitoes. Results from xeric Sahelian and riparian populations were compared. Oviposition response in the Sahelian M form dropped from 70% during the wet season to 20% during the dry season while the mean egg batch size among those that laid eggs fell from 173 to 101. Correspondingly, the fraction of females that exhibited gonotrophic dissociation increased over the dry season from 5% to 45%, while a similar fraction of the population retained developed eggs despite having access to water. This depression in reproduction the Sahelian M form was not caused by a reduced insemination rate. Seasonal variation in these reproductive parameters of the riparian M form population was less extreme and the duration of reproductive depression was shorter. Blood feeding responses did not change with the season in either population. Depressed reproduction during the dry season in the Sahelian M form of An. gambiae provides additional evidence for aestivation and illuminates the physiological processes involved. The differences between the Sahelian and riparian population suggest an adaptive cline in aestivation phenotypes between populations only 130 km apart.     

Effects of weather on the survival and growth of Corncrake Crex crex chicks

Weather conditions during the early life of precocial chicks of some bird species have marked effects on survival and may also cause changes in adult population size. In this paper, we use data from broods with radiotagged mothers to examine correlations of growth rates and survival of Corncrake Crex crex chicks in Scotland and Ireland with temperature and rainfall. The loss of whole broods before they reached independence was infrequent and not correlated with temperature or rainfall. Loss of some chicks from broods before independence usually occurred and multiple regression analysis indicated that the proportion of chicks that survived increased with decreasing initial brood size, increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall. However, the magnitude of the effects of weather on survival were quite small. The rate of weight gain of chicks varied considerably within and among broods. The mean daily weight gain rate of broods decreased significantly with increasing rainfall, and variation in the weight of chicks within broods was greater for broods whose mean rate of weight gain was low.     

Body size variation of the floodwater mosquito Aedes albifasciatus in Central Argentina

An inverse relationship between larval density and adult body size has been reported for several mosquito species, affecting their survival and vector competence, response to repellents and other factors. Larvae of the floodwater mosquito Aedes (Ochlerotatus) albifasciatus (Macquart) (Diptera: Culicidae) develop quickly in temporary pools, so intraspecific competition (for food or space) might regulate population abundance and affect the size of adult mosquitoes. We investigated the temporal variation of adult female wing-length (an index of body-size) in natural populations of Ae. albifasciatus, using adults collected during each phase of the rainy season. The relationships between adult mosquito abundance, female wing-length, rainfall and temperature were analysed through simple regressions. Skewness of the frequency distribution of wing-lengths showed a strong negative relationship with mean wing-length. The distribution of wing-lengths varied seasonally and was correlated with rainfall 7-15 days previously as the major consequence of breeding site volume. Thus temporal variation of body size in natural populations of Ae. albifasciatus reflected density-dependent changes in the aquatic habitat where immature stages develop, influenced more by rainfall than by temperature or other environmental variables.     

Drivers of megaherbivore demographic fluctuations: inference from elephants

Environmentally induced variation in survival and fecundity generates demographic fluctuations that affect population growth rate. However, a general pattern of the comparative influence of variation in fecundity and juvenile survival on elephant population dynamics has not been investigated at a broad scale. We evaluated the relative importance of conception, gestation, first year survival and subsequent survivorship for controlling demographic variation by exploring the relationship between past environmental conditions determined by integrated normalized difference vegetation index (INDVI) and the shape of age distributions at 17 sites across Africa. We showed that, generally, INDVI during gestation best explained anomalies in age structure. However, in areas with low mean annual rainfall, INDVI during the first year of life was critical. The results challenge Eberhardt's paradigm for population analysis that suggests that populations respond to limited resource availability through a sequential decrease in juvenile survival, reproductive rate and adult survival. Contrastingly, elephants appear to respond first through a reduction in reproductive rate. We conclude that this discrepancy is likely due to the evolutionary significance of extremely large body size – an adaptation that increases survival rate but decreases reproductive potential. Other megaherbivores may respond similarly to resource limitation due to similarities in population dynamics. Knowing how vital rates vary with changing environmental conditions will permit better forecasts of the trajectories of megaherbivore populations.     

Food limitation and demography of a migratory antelope,the white-eared kob

Summary Although it is commonly presumed that many populations of large-herbivores are limited by food availability, supporting evidence is scarce. This hypothesis was investigated in a population of over 800,000 white-eared kob in the Boma National Park region of the southern Sudan. Food availability, body condition, and mortality rates of adults and calves were measured during the dry seasons of 1982 and 1983. Sampled age distributions from both the live population and carcasses were used to calculate age-specific rates of mortality. In 1982, food supplies during the dry season were augmented by substantial rainfall, which produced regrowth of grass in areas that ordinarily had little green forage. As a result, fat reserves declined little, and rates of adult mortality showed no increasing trend. Total adult mortality was 5%. In 1983, there was no rainfall during the dry season and food intake was insufficient to meet the estimated energy requirements of kob. As a result, fat reserves declined and adult mortality rates increased fourfold. Total adult mortality was 10% (equivalent to the recruitment rate of yearling into the population). Calf mortality during the dry season was similar in both years (50%), based on field estimates of mortality rates and calf/female ratios. Lactation throughout the dry season possibly provided a buffer for calves against variations in food availability. The age structure of the live population in 1983 suggests that a drought in 1980 reduced kob numbers by 40%. These results suggest that adult survival is influenced strongly by the availability of food during the dry season. However, the duration of the dry season also plays an important role. During the dry season, declining fat reserves make an increasing proportion of the population vulnerable to mortality. As a result, even moderate droughts may lead to substantial changes in population numbers.     

Survival of Afro‐Palaearctic passerine migrants in western Europe and the impacts of seasonal weather variables

Populations of migratory songbirds in western Europe show considerable variation in population trends between species and regions. The demographic and environmental causes of these large‐scale patterns are poorly understood. Using data from Constant Effort mist‐netting studies, we investigated relationships between changes in abundance, adult survival and seasonal weather conditions among 35 western European populations of eight species of migratory warblers (Sylviidae). We used cross‐species and within‐species comparisons to assess whether annual variation in survival was correlated with weather conditions during passage or winter. We estimated survival using CJS mark‐recapture models accounting for variation in the proportion of transient individuals and recapture rates. Species wintering in the humid bioclimatic zone of western Africa had significantly higher annual survival probabilities than species wintering in the arid bioclimatic zone of Africa (the Sahel). Rainfall in the Sahel was positively correlated with survival in at least some populations of five species. We found substantially fewer significant relationships with indices of weather during the autumn and spring passage periods, which may be due to the use of broad‐scale indices. Annual population changes were correlated with adult survival in all of our study species, although species undergoing widespread declines showed the weakest relationships.     

Desertification in the Sahel: a reinterpretation of a reinterpretation

In semiarid regions the ratio of annual net primary production to precipitation, rain-use efficiency (RUE), has been used as an index of desertification. In a recent publication ( Hein & de Ridder, 2006 ) it was proposed that an incorrect understanding of the relationship between RUE and rainfall has led to a misinterpretation of the satellite record of desertification in the African Sahel. Here, we examine this suggestion and show that, contrary to Hein and de Ridder's statement, satellite studies of Sahelian RUE have reported increases, decreases, and constant values since 1981. Furthermore, we find that data do not support their proposal that RUE increases with rainfall, even in nondegraded areas. Hence we reject their corollary, that constant RUE is prima facie evidence of desertification. The fundamental difficulty with the use of RUE for detection of desertification remains, that is the difficulty of estimation of the RUE for nondegraded land at a regional scale.     

Effects of land‐use change and rainfall in Sudano‐Sahelian West Africa on the diet and nestling growth rates of an avian predator

Raptor populations in Sudano‐Sahelian West Africa are being severely affected by widespread habitat alteration which depletes prey populations, potentially aggravated by changing rainfall patterns. We studied Grasshopper Buzzards Butastur rufipennis at nests in natural and transformed habitats in the Sudano‐Sahelian region of northern Cameroon to assess the effects of habitat transformation and rainfall on nestling diet and growth. Grasshoppers and small mammals were more frequently taken in natural habitat, whereas lizards were most frequently taken in transformed habitats. These dietary differences reflected differences in prey availability around nests in natural and transformed habitats. Land use was a significant predictor of asymptotic weight: nestlings in natural habitat attained a higher mass than those in transformed habitats, when potentially confounding variables such as hatch order, gender, hatch date, rainfall or the presence of siblings were taken into consideration. These results suggest that body condition at fledging was habitat‐dependent, with potential consequences for subsequent survival. However, we recorded no differences in caloric content of food delivered to nests in natural and transformed habitat, which was possibly related to prey caught during twilight hours. There was a positive relationship between precipitation levels during the nestling phase and nestling growth rate. We predict unfavourable future conditions for nestling growth of raptors in Sudano‐Sahelian savannas as a consequence of continued widespread habitat transformation and diminished rainfall.     

Demography of the Heike firefly Luciola lateralis (Coleoptera: Lampyridae), a representative species of Japan’s traditional agricultural landscape

Populations of the Heike firefly, Luciola lateralis, a representative species of Japan’s traditional agricultural landscape (known as satoyama), have recently experienced rapid declines in many areas of Japan. Owing to the popularity of this firefly, many local communities have increased conservation efforts through the restoration of aquatic habitat complexes in satoyama. To provide fundamental parameters to predict population dynamics of the firefly, we conducted a mark–recapture study in restored paddy fields, and we estimated adult population parameters such as population size, survival, recruitment, sex ratio, and body size. We found that capture probability generally decreased as the season advanced, probably because of seasonal changes in detectability and/or firefly behavior. The daily survival rate of adults decreased over the season and may be related to a seasonal decline in adult body size. Adult population exhibited a highly male-biased sex ratio. Firefly abundance in the restored paddy fields doubled during the 4-year study period. Our analysis showed that adult detectability, recruitment, and survival rate are seasonally variable and could affect population size estimates obtained by a simple flash census. The mark–recapture technique can provide precise estimates of adult L. lateralis population characteristics and, thus, is a valuable method for predicting firefly populations and assessing the success of the restoration program.     

Survival-variation within and between functional categories of the African multimammate rat

1. By identifying ecological factors specific to functional categories of individuals, it may be possible to understand the mechanisms underlying life-history evolution and population dynamics. While empirical analyses within the field of population biology have focused on changes in population size, theoretical models assuming differential sensitivities of population growth rate or fitness to demographic parameters have mostly been untested, particularly against data on small mammals.
2. Statistical modelling of capture–mark–recapture data on the multimammate rat ( Mastomys natalensis ) from Tanzania shows that: (i) females survive slightly better than males and subadults survive much better than adults; (ii) temporal variation of survival of all individuals is similarly related to the rainfall of the month; (iii) subadults exhibit a strongly density-dependent low persistence rate in the population immediately after their first capture; (iv) subadults survival in later months is, however, positively related to density; and (v) adult survival shows negative density-dependence.
3. Both density-dependent and density-independent factors simultaneously determine stage-dependent survival variation of the multimammate rat. Whereas environmental factors in this population seem to affect survival rates of all individuals in a similar manner, density-dependent relationships are more complex.
4. The patterns of survival variation in small mammals may be different from those observed in large mammals.
5. Further studies of demography in small mammals should aim at understanding how much of the variability in population growth rate is accounted for by the variability of the demographic rates resulting from limiting (density-independent) and regulating (density-dependent) factors, respectively. This study emphasizes the use of robust and accurate statistical methods as well as stage- or age-structured population modelling.     

Demography of Verreaux’s sifaka in a stochastic rainfall environment

In this study, we use deterministic and stochastic models to analyze the demography of Verreaux’s sifaka (Propithecus verreauxi verreauxi) in a fluctuating rainfall environment. The model is based on 16 years of data from Beza Mahafaly Special Reserve, southwest Madagascar. The parameters in the stage-classified life cycle were estimated using mark-recapture methods. Statistical models were evaluated using information-theoretic techniques and multi-model inference. The highest ranking model is time-invariant, but the averaged model includes rainfall-dependence of survival and breeding. We used a time-series model of rainfall to construct a stochastic demographic model. The time-invariant model and the stochastic model give a population growth rate of about 0.98. Bootstrap confidence intervals on the growth rates, both deterministic and stochastic, include 1. Growth rates are most elastic to changes in adult survival. Many demographic statistics show a nonlinear response to annual rainfall but are depressed when annual rainfall is low, or the variance in annual rainfall is high. Perturbation analyses from both the time-invariant and stochastic models indicate that recruitment and survival of older females are key determinants of population growth rate.     

The demography of an increasing insular Eurasian Scops Owl (Otus scops) population in western France

Rapid population declines of many long-distance Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species are ongoing across Europe but the demographic drivers are often poorly understood, thereby limiting the development of appropriate conservation actions. Using long-term population monitoring (39 years), capture–mark–recapture data and a matrix model, we estimated demographic parameters and the effect of climate variables on adult survival, and modelled the dynamics of an increasing population of Eurasian Scops Owls Otus scops in a landscape with agricultural abandonment in western France. The observed mean annual population growth rate was 1.055 (from 68 to 523 territorial males between 1981 and 2019). Over the study period, clutch size and hatching success were stable, but fledging success and breeding success showed slight negative trends, probably due to density-dependence. Survival varied with age, with an increase during early life and evidence for rapid senescence from 4 years old. Adult survival remained stable and was positively linked to the amount of autumn rainfall in the Sahel and to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. Survival of younger age-classes made the largest contribution to the variance of the population growth rate, followed by clutch size, fledging success and survival of older birds. Such a long-term population increase in a landscape where intensive agriculture has decreased by 64.6% sheds some new light on the causes of the decline of European Scops Owl and other Afro-Palaearctic bird populations. We infer some of the possible causes of this large-scale decline, in particular food shortage, and discuss conservation measures that could be applicable to reverse this trend.     

THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF NORTHERN SEA LIONS, 1975-1985

Abstract: Populations of northern sea lions ( Eumetopias jubatus ) in the vicinity of Marmot Island, Alaska declined during 1975–1985 at about 5% per year (Merrick et al. 1987). The cause of this decline is not known. A life table for the northern sea lion was calculated assuming that life spans follow a Weibull distribution. Samples of northern sea lions taken in the vicinity of Marmot Island, Alaska during 1975–1978 and 1985–1986 indicate that the average age of females older than 3 yr increased about 1.55 yr (SD = 0.35 yr) while the population was declining at about 5% per year. Fecundity rates decreased by 10% over the same period, but the decrease was not statistically significant (Calkins and Goodwin 1988). Possible causes of the population decline and the change in age structure were examined by writing the Leslie matrix population equation in terms of changes in juvenile and adult survival rates and fecundity, and examining the short–term behavior of the trajectories of the average age of adult females, total number of females, and total number of pups with respect to those changes in the vital parameters. From the observed rate of declines of adults and the changes in average age of adult females and fecundity, estimates of the changes in adult and juvenile survival were calculated; estimates of the standard deviations of these changes were estimated via a bootstrap procedure. One purpose of this exercise is to aid in setting priorities for research for determining the cause of the decline. An explanation for the observed declines in numbers of adult sea lions consistent with the observed fecundity rates, a rate of decrease of 5% in the number of adults, and the corresponding increase in average age (of females age 3 yr and older) was a 10%–20% decrease in the survival of juveniles (age 0-3 yr) coupled with an insignificant change in adult survival (0.03%, SD = 1%).