Accuracy of coalescent likelihood estimates: do we need more sites, more sequences, or more loci?

A computer simulation study has been made of the accuracy of estimates of Theta = 4Nemu from a sample from a single isolated population of finite size. The accuracies turn out to be well predicted by a formula developed by Fu and Li, who used optimistic assumptions. Their formulas are restated in terms of accuracy, defined here as the reciprocal of the squared coefficient of variation. This should be proportional to sample size when the entities sampled provide independent information. Using these formulas for accuracy, the sampling strategy for estimation of Theta can be investigated. Two models for cost have been used, a cost-per-base model and a cost-per-read model. The former would lead us to prefer to have a very large number of loci, each one base long. The latter, which is more realistic, causes us to prefer to have one read per locus and an optimum sample size which declines as costs of sampling organisms increase. For realistic values, the optimum sample size is 8 or fewer individuals. This is quite close to the results obtained by Pluzhnikov and Donnelly for a cost-per-base model, evaluating other estimators of Theta. It can be understood by considering that the resources spent collecting larger samples prevent us from considering more loci. An examination of the efficiency of Watterson's estimator of Theta was also made, and it was found to be reasonably efficient when the number of mutants per generation in the sequence in the whole population is less than 2.5.     

Maximum-likelihood estimation of relatedness

Relatedness between individuals is central to many studies in genetics and population biology. A variety of estimators have been developed to enable molecular marker data to quantify relatedness. Despite this, no effort has been given to characterize the traditional maximum-likelihood estimator in relation to the remainder. This article quantifies its statistical performance under a range of biologically relevant sampling conditions. Under the same range of conditions, the statistical performance of five other commonly used estimators of relatedness is quantified. Comparison among these estimators indicates that the traditional maximum-likelihood estimator exhibits a lower standard error under essentially all conditions. Only for very large amounts of genetic information do most of the other estimators approach the likelihood estimator. However, the likelihood estimator is more biased than any of the others, especially when the amount of genetic information is low or the actual relationship being estimated is near the boundary of the parameter space. Even under these conditions, the amount of bias can be greatly reduced, potentially to biologically irrelevant levels, with suitable genetic sampling. Additionally, the likelihood estimator generally exhibits the lowest root mean-square error, an indication that the bias in fact is quite small. Alternative estimators restricted to yield only biologically interpretable estimates exhibit lower standard errors and greater bias than do unrestricted ones, but generally do not improve over the maximum-likelihood estimator and in some cases exhibit even greater bias. Although some nonlikelihood estimators exhibit better performance with respect to specific metrics under some conditions, none approach the high level of performance exhibited by the likelihood estimator across all conditions and all metrics of performance.     

LAMARC 2.0: maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation of population parameters

We present a Markov chain Monte Carlo coalescent genealogy sampler, LAMARC 2.0, which estimates population genetic parameters from genetic data. LAMARC can co-estimate subpopulation Theta = 4N(e)mu, immigration rates, subpopulation exponential growth rates and overall recombination rate, or a user-specified subset of these parameters. It can perform either maximum-likelihood or Bayesian analysis, and accomodates nucleotide sequence, SNP, microsatellite or elecrophoretic data, with resolved or unresolved haplotypes. It is available as portable source code and executables for all three major platforms. AVAILABILITY: LAMARC 2.0 is freely available at http://evolution.gs.washington.edu/lamarc     

Statistical analysis of binary data generated from multilocus dominant DNA markers

The use of methodologies such as RAPD and AFLP for studying genetic variation in natural populations is widespread in the ecology community. Because data generated using these methods exhibit dominance, their statistical treatment is less straightforward. Several estimators have been proposed for estimating population genetic parameters, assuming simple random sampling and the Hardy-Weinberg (HW) law. The merits of these estimators remain unclear because no comparative studies of their theoretical properties have been carried out. Furthermore, ascertainment bias has not been explicitly modelled. Here, we present a comparison of a set of candidate estimators of null allele frequency (q), locus-specific heterozygosity (h) and average heterozygosity () in terms of their bias, standard error, and root mean square error (RMSE). For estimating q and h, we show that none of the estimators considered has the least RMSE over the parameter space. Our proposed zero-correction procedure, however, generally leads to estimators with improved RMSE. Assuming a beta model for the distribution of null homozygote proportions, we show how correction for ascertainment bias can be carried out using a linear transform of the sample average of h and the truncated beta-binomial likelihood. Simulation results indicate that the maximum likelihood and empirical Bayes estimator of have negligible bias and similar RMSE. Ascertainment bias in estimators of is most pronounced when the beta distribution is J-shaped and negligible when the latter is inverse J-shaped. The validity of the current findings depends importantly on the HW assumption-a point that we illustrate using data from two published studies.     

Some Statistical Improvements for Estimating Population Size and Mutation Rate from Segregating Sites in DNA Sequences

In population genetics, under a neutral Wright-Fisher model, the scaling parameter straight theta=4Nmu represents twice the average number of new mutants per generation. The effective population size is N and mu is the mutation rate per sequence per generation. Watterson proposed a consistent estimator of this parameter based on the number of segregating sites in a sample of nucleotide sequences. We study the distribution of the Watterson estimator. Enlarging the size of the sample, we asymptotically set a Central Limit Theorem for the Watterson estimator. This exhibits asymptotic normality with a slow rate of convergence. We then prove the asymptotic efficiency of this estimator. In the second part, we illustrate the slow rate of convergence found in the Central Limit Theorem. To this end, by studying the confidence intervals, we show that the asymptotic Gaussian distribution is not a good approximation for the Watterson estimator.     

Asymptotic behavior of the scaled mutation rate estimators

Important aspects of population evolution have been investigated using nucleotide sequences. Under the neutral Wright–Fisher model, the scaled mutation rate represents twice the average number of new mutations per generations and it is one of the key parameters in population genetics. In this study, we present various methods of estimation of this parameter, analytical studies of their asymptotic behavior as well as comparisons of the distribution's behavior of these estimators through simulations. As knowledge of the genealogy is needed to estimate the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), an application with real data is also presented, using jackknife to correct the bias of the MLE, which can be generated by the estimation of the tree. We proved analytically that the Waterson's estimator and the MLE are asymptotically equivalent with the same rate of convergence to normality. Furthermore, we showed that the MLE has a better rate of convergence than Waterson's estimator for values of the parameter greater than one and this relationship is reversed when the parameter is less than one.     

Bias-reduced estimators and confidence intervals for odds ratios in genome-wide association studies

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) provide an important approach to identifying common genetic variants that predispose to human disease. A typical GWAS may genotype hundreds of thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located throughout the human genome in a set of cases and controls. Logistic regression is often used to test for association between a SNP genotype and case versus control status, with corresponding odds ratios (ORs) typically reported only for those SNPs meeting selection criteria. However, when these estimates are based on the original data used to detect the variant, the results are affected by a selection bias sometimes referred to the "winner's curse" (Capen and others, 1971). The actual genetic association is typically overestimated. We show that such selection bias may be severe in the sense that the conditional expectation of the standard OR estimator may be quite far away from the underlying parameter. Also standard confidence intervals (CIs) may have far from the desired coverage rate for the selected ORs. We propose and evaluate 3 bias-reduced estimators, and also corresponding weighted estimators that combine corrected and uncorrected estimators, to reduce selection bias. Their corresponding CIs are also proposed. We study the performance of these estimators using simulated data sets and show that they reduce the bias and give CI coverage close to the desired level under various scenarios, even for associations having only small statistical power.     

Estimating the encounter rate variance in distance sampling

Summary .  The dominant source of variance in line transect sampling is usually the encounter rate variance. Systematic survey designs are often used to reduce the true variability among different realizations of the design, but estimating the variance is difficult and estimators typically approximate the variance by treating the design as a simple random sample of lines. We explore the properties of different encounter rate variance estimators under random and systematic designs. We show that a design-based variance estimator improves upon the model-based estimator of Buckland et al. (2001, Introduction to Distance Sampling. Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 79) when transects are positioned at random. However, if populations exhibit strong spatial trends, both estimators can have substantial positive bias under systematic designs. We show that poststratification is effective in reducing this bias.     

On Estimating Stratified PH Model with Single Covariate from Sparse Data with Application to Brain Metastases Study

The estimation of the unknown parameters in the stratified Cox's proportional hazard model is a typical example of the trade‐off between bias and precision. The stratified partial likelihood estimator is unbiased when the number of strata is large but suffer from being unstable when many strata are non‐informative about the unknown parameters. The estimator obtained by ignoring the heterogeneity among strata, on the other hand, increases the precision of estimates although pays the price for being biased. An estimating procedure, based on the asymptotic properties of the above two estimators, serving to compromise between bias and precision is proposed. Two examples in a radiosurgery for brain metastases study provide some interesting demonstration of such applications.     

Ratio estimation with measurement error in the auxiliary variate

Summary .  With auxiliary information that is well correlated with the primary variable of interest, ratio estimation of the finite population total may be much more efficient than alternative estimators that do not make use of the auxiliary variate. The well-known properties of ratio estimators are perturbed when the auxiliary variate is measured with error. In this contribution we examine the effect of measurement error in the auxiliary variate on the design-based statistical properties of three common ratio estimators. We examine the case of systematic measurement error as well as measurement error that varies according to a fixed distribution. Aside from presenting expressions for the bias and variance of these estimators when they are contaminated with measurement error we provide numerical results based on a specific population. Under systematic measurement error, the biasing effect is asymmetric around zero, and precision may be improved or degraded depending on the magnitude of the error. Under variable measurement error, bias of the conventional ratio-of-means estimator increased slightly with increasing error dispersion, but far less than the increased bias of the conventional mean-of-ratios estimator. In similar fashion, the variance of the mean-of-ratios estimator incurs a greater loss of precision with increasing error dispersion compared with the other estimators we examine. Overall, the ratio-of-means estimator appears to be remarkably resistant to the effects of measurement error in the auxiliary variate.     

The effects of a known family-size distribution on the estimation of genetic parameters.

We consider the question: In a segregation analysis, can knowledge of the family-size distribution (FSD) in the population from which a sample is drawn improve the estimators of genetic parameters? In other words, should one incorporate the population FSD into a segregation analysis if one knows it? If so, then under what circumstances? And how much improvement may result? We examine the variance and bias of the maximum likelihood estimators both asymptotically and in finite samples. We consider Poisson and geometric FSDs, as well as a simple two-valued FSD in which all families in the population have either one or two children. We limit our study to a simple genetic model with truncate selection. We find that if the FSD is completely specified, then the asymptotic variance of the estimator may be reduced by as much as 5%-10%, especially when the FSD is heavily skewed toward small families. Results in small samples are less clear-cut. For some of the simple two-valued FSDs, the variance of the estimator in small samples of one- and two-child families may actually be increased slightly when the FSD is included in the analysis. If one knows only the statistical form of the FSD, but not its parameter, then the estimator is improved only minutely. Our study also underlines the fact that results derived from asymptotic maximum likelihood theory do not necessarily hold in small samples. We conclude that in most practical applications it is not worth incorporating the FSD into a segregation analysis. However, this practice may be justified under special circumstances where the FSD is completely specified, without error, and the population consists overwhelmingly of small families.     

Adaptive and Slightly Deleterious Evolution in a Conifer, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cryptomeria japonica</Emphasis>

In order to evaluate effects of the population structure and natural selection on organisms having long generation times, we surveyed DNA polymorphisms at five loci encoding 9-cis-epoxycarotenoid dioxygenase (NCED), ammonium transporter, calmodulin, aquaporin, and the second major allergen with polymethylgalacturonase enzyme activity in the pollen (Cryj2) in a conifer, Cryptomeria japonica. The average nucleotide diversity at silent sites across 12 loci including the previously analyzed seven loci was 0.0044. The population recombination rate (4Nr, where N and r are the effective population size and recombination rate per base per generation, respectively) was estimated as 0.00046 and a slow reduction in the population size was indicated, according to the maximum likelihood method implemented in LAMARC. At NCED, the McDonald-Kreitman (MK) test revealed an excess of replacement polymorphisms, suggesting contributions of slightly deleterious mutations. In contrast, the MK test revealed an excess of replacement divergence at Cryj2 and a maximum likelihood approach using the PAML package revealed that certain amino acid sites had a nonsynonymous/synonymous substitution rate ratio (omega) > 4.0, indicating adaptive evolution at this locus. The overall analysis of the 12 loci suggested that adaptive, neutral, and slightly deleterious evolution played important roles in the evolution of C. japonica.     

On improved calibrations of unknowns in a system of quality-controlled assays

Two new estimators for calibrating unknowns from dose-response curves, in a system of quality-controlled assays, are examined. In contrast with the conventional estimator which uses only the results of the one assay in which the response of the unknown dose is measured, the new estimators also utilize the results of all other assays through the replications of the control samples in the system. The first estimator is based on maximizing the likelihood of the given system (with respect to the different dose-response parameters, the levels of the control samples and the levels of the unknowns) when response errors are normally distributed. The second estimator is a regression-like estimator obtained by subtracting from the conventional estimator its estimated regression on the deviation of the calibrated control levels in the given assay from their average values in the system. Evaluations of the reductions in bias and variance attained by the new estimators show when substantial reductions in mean square error can be expected. The new estimators are illustrated with a system of 22 hFSH radioimmunoassays.     

Empirical Likelihood Semiparametric Regression Analysis for Longitudinal Data

A semiparametric regression model for longitudinal data is considered.The empirical likelihood method is used to estimate the regressioncoefficients and the baseline function, and to construct confidenceregions and intervals. It is proved that the maximum empiricallikelihood estimator of the regression coefficients achievesasymptotic efficiency and the estimator of the baseline functionattains asymptotic normality when a bias correction is made.Two calibrated empirical likelihood approaches to inferencefor the baseline function are developed. We propose a groupwiseempirical likelihood procedure to handle the inter-series dependencefor the longitudinal semiparametric regression model, and employbias correction to construct the empirical likelihood ratiofunctions for the parameters of interest. This leads us to provea nonparametric version of Wilks' theorem. Compared with methodsbased on normal approximations, the empirical likelihood doesnot require consistent estimators for the asymptotic varianceand bias. A simulation compares the empirical likelihood andnormal-based methods in terms of coverage accuracies and averageareas/lengths of confidence regions/intervals.     

A pairwise relatedness estimator for polyploids

Studies in genetics and ecology often require estimates of relatedness coefficients based on genetic marker data. Many diploid estimators have been developed using either method‐of‐moments or maximum‐likelihood estimates. However, there are no relatedness estimators for polyploids. The development of a moment estimator for polyploids with polysomic inheritance, which simultaneously incorporates the two‐gene relatedness coefficient and various ‘higher‐order’ coefficients, is described here. The performance of the estimator is compared to other estimators under a variety of conditions. When using a small number of loci, the estimator is biased because of an increase in ill‐conditioned matrices. However, the estimator becomes asymptotically unbiased with large numbers of loci. The ambiguity of polyploid heterozygotes (when balanced heterozygotes cannot be distinguished from unbalanced heterozygotes) is also considered; as with low numbers of loci, genotype ambiguity leads to bias. A software, PolyRelatedness , implementing this method and supporting a maximum ploidy of 8 is provided.     

Bias-corrected maximum likelihood estimator of the negative binomial dispersion parameter

We derive a first-order bias-corrected maximum likelihood estimator for the negative binomial dispersion parameter. This estimator is compared, in terms of bias and efficiency, with the maximum likelihood estimator investigated by Piegorsch (1990, Biometrics46, 863-867), the moment and the maximum extended quasi-likelihood estimators investigated by Clark and Perry (1989, Biometrics45, 309-316), and a double-extended quasi-likelihood estimator. The bias-corrected maximum likelihood estimator has superior bias and efficiency properties in most instances. For ease of comparison we give results for the two-parameter negative binomial model. However, an example involving negative binomial regression is given.     

A comparative study of conditional maximum likelihood estimation of a common odds ratio

The finite-sample properties of various point estimators of a common odds ratio from multiple 2 X 2 tables have been considered in a number of simulation studies. However, the conditional maximum likelihood estimator has received only limited attention. That omission is partially rectified here for cases of relatively small numbers of tables and moderate to large within-table sample sizes. The conditional maximum likelihood estimator is found to be superior to the unconditional maximum likelihood estimator, and equal or superior to the Mantel-Haenszel estimator in both bias and precision.     

A simplified estimator of two and four gene relationship coefficients

Molecular marker data provide a means of circumventing the problem of not knowing the population structure of a natural population, as observed similarities between a pair's genotypes provide information on their genetic relationship. Numerous method-of-moment (MOM) estimators have been developed for estimating relationship coefficients using this information. Here, I present a simplified form of Wang's 2002 relationship estimator that is not dependent upon a previously required weighting scheme, thus improving the efficiency of the estimator when used with genuinely related pairs. The new estimator is compared against other estimators under a range of conditions, including situations where the parameter estimates are truncated to lie within the legitimate parameter space. The advantages of the new estimator are most notable for the two-gene coefficient of relatedness. Truncating the MOM estimators results in parameter estimates whose properties are similar to maximum likelihood estimates, with them having generally lower sampling variances, but being biased.     

Accounting for Sampling Error When Inferring Population Synchrony from Time-Series Data: A Bayesian State-Space Modelling Approach with Applications

Background

Data collected to inform time variations in natural population size are tainted by sampling error. Ignoring sampling error in population dynamics models induces bias in parameter estimators, e.g., density-dependence. In particular, when sampling errors are independent among populations, the classical estimator of the synchrony strength (zero-lag correlation) is biased downward. However, this bias is rarely taken into account in synchrony studies although it may lead to overemphasizing the role of intrinsic factors (e.g., dispersal) with respect to extrinsic factors (the Moran effect) in generating population synchrony as well as to underestimating the extinction risk of a metapopulation.

Methodology/Principal findings

The aim of this paper was first to illustrate the extent of the bias that can be encountered in empirical studies when sampling error is neglected. Second, we presented a space-state modelling approach that explicitly accounts for sampling error when quantifying population synchrony. Third, we exemplify our approach with datasets for which sampling variance (i) has been previously estimated, and (ii) has to be jointly estimated with population synchrony. Finally, we compared our results to those of a standard approach neglecting sampling variance. We showed that ignoring sampling variance can mask a synchrony pattern whatever its true value and that the common practice of averaging few replicates of population size estimates poorly performed at decreasing the bias of the classical estimator of the synchrony strength.

Conclusion/Significance

The state-space model used in this study provides a flexible way of accurately quantifying the strength of synchrony patterns from most population size data encountered in field studies, including over-dispersed count data. We provided a user-friendly R-program and a tutorial example to encourage further studies aiming at quantifying the strength of population synchrony to account for uncertainty in population size estimates.     

Comparative evaluation of a new effective population size estimator based on approximate bayesian computation

We describe and evaluate a new estimator of the effective population size (N(e)), a critical parameter in evolutionary and conservation biology. This new "SummStat" N(e) estimator is based upon the use of summary statistics in an approximate Bayesian computation framework to infer N(e). Simulations of a Wright-Fisher population with known N(e) show that the SummStat estimator is useful across a realistic range of individuals and loci sampled, generations between samples, and N(e) values. We also address the paucity of information about the relative performance of N(e) estimators by comparing the SummStat estimator to two recently developed likelihood-based estimators and a traditional moment-based estimator. The SummStat estimator is the least biased of the four estimators compared. In 32 of 36 parameter combinations investigated using initial allele frequencies drawn from a Dirichlet distribution, it has the lowest bias. The relative mean square error (RMSE) of the SummStat estimator was generally intermediate to the others. All of the estimators had RMSE > 1 when small samples (n = 20, five loci) were collected a generation apart. In contrast, when samples were separated by three or more generations and N(e) < or = 50, the SummStat and likelihood-based estimators all had greatly reduced RMSE. Under the conditions simulated, SummStat confidence intervals were more conservative than the likelihood-based estimators and more likely to include true N(e). The greatest strength of the SummStat estimator is its flexible structure. This flexibility allows it to incorporate any potentially informative summary statistic from population genetic data.