Integrating fossil preservation biases in the selection of calibrations for molecular divergence time estimation

The selection of fossil data to use as calibration age priors in molecular divergence time estimates inherently links neontological methods with paleontological theory. However, few neontological studies have taken into account the possibility of a taphonomic bias in the fossil record when developing approaches to fossil calibration selection. The Sppil-Rongis effect may bias the first appearance of a lineage toward the recent causing most objective calibration selection approaches to erroneously exclude appropriate calibrations or to incorporate multiple calibrations that are too young to accurately represent the divergence times of target lineages. Using turtles as a case study, we develop a Bayesian extension to the fossil selection approach developed by Marshall (2008. A simple method for bracketing absolute divergence times on molecular phylogenies using multiple fossil calibrations points. Am. Nat. 171:726-742) that takes into account this taphonomic bias. Our method has the advantage of identifying calibrations that may bias age estimates to be too recent while incorporating uncertainty in phylogenetic parameter estimates such as tree topology and branch lengths. Additionally, this method is easily adapted to assess the consistency of potential calibrations to any one calibration in the candidate pool.     

Assessing concordance of fossil calibration points in molecular clock studies: an example using turtles

Although still controversial, estimation of divergence times using molecular data has emerged as a powerful tool to examine the tempo and mode of evolutionary change. Two primary obstacles in improving the accuracy of molecular dating are heterogeneity in DNA substitution rates and accuracy of the fossil record as calibration points. Recent methodological advances have provided powerful methods that estimate relative divergence times in the face of heterogeneity of nucleotide substitution rates among lineages. However, relatively little attention has focused on the accuracy of fossil calibration points that allow one to translate relative divergence times into absolute time. We present a new cross-validation method that identifies inconsistent fossils when multiple fossil calibrations are available for a clade and apply our method to a molecular phylogeny of living turtles with fossil calibration times for 17 of the 22 internal nodes in the tree. Our cross-validation procedure identified seven inconsistent fossils. Using the consistent fossils as calibration points, we found that despite their overall antiquity as a lineage, the most species-rich clades of turtles diversified well within the Cenozoic. Many of the truly ancient lineages of turtles are currently represented by a few, often endangered species that deserve high priority as conservation targets.     

Molecular claims of Gondwanan age for Australian agamid lizards are untenable

A recent mtDNA study proposes a surprisingly deep (approximately 150 MYA) divergence between SE Asian and Australasian agamid lizards, consistent with ancient Gondwanan vicariance rather than dispersal across the Indonesian Archipelago. However, the analysis contains a fundamental error: use of rates of molecular evolution inferred from uncorrected sequence divergence to put a time frame on a tree with branch lengths greatly elongated by complex likelihood and rate-smoothing models. Furthermore, this date implies that basal splits within agamids occurred implausibly early, at least 300 MYA (100 Myr before the first fossil lizards and coincident with the earliest fossil reptiles). Analyses of the mtDNA data using more appropriate methods and new information from nuclear (c-mos) sequences suggest a much more recent divergence between SE Asian and Australian agamids (around 30 MYA). Using two fossil boundary dates, bootstrapping the c-mos data gives a 95% confidence interval for this divergence time that is sufficiently recent (14-41 MYA) to exclude an ancient Gondwanan vicariance and is more consistent with Miocene over-water dispersal. As with the mtDNA, the c-mos data implies implausibly old basal divergences among agamids if a Gondwanan age is assumed for the Australasian clade. The analyses also highlight how methods for creating ultrametric trees (especially nonparametric rate smoothing) can greatly modify branch lengths and, thus, always require internal calibrations. The errors associated with inferred dates in the previous study (inferred through parametric bootstrapping) were also unjustifiably low, as this method only considers stochasticity in the substitution model and ignores much larger sources of uncertainty, such as variation in character sampling, tree topology, and calibration accuracy.     

Adding time-calibrated branch lengths to the Asteraceae supertree

New inference techniques,such as supertrees,have improved the construction of large phylogenies,helping to reveal the tree of life.In addition,these large phylogenies have enhanced the study of other evolutionary questions,such as whether traits have evolved in a neutral or adaptive way,or what factors have influenced diversification.However,supertrees usually lack branch lengths,which are necessary for all these issues to be investigated.Here,divergence times within the largest family of flowering plants,namely the Asteraceae,are reviewed to estimate time-calibrated branch lengths in the supertree of this lineage.An inconsistency between estimated dates of basal branching events and the earliest asteraceous fossil pollen record was detected.In addition,the impact of different methods of branch length assignment on the total number of transitions between states in the reconstruction of sexual system evolution in Asteraceae was investigated.At least for this dataset,different branch length assignation approaches influenced maximum likelihood(ML)reconstructions only and not Bayesian ones.Therefore,the selection of different branch length information is not arbitrary and should be carefully assessed,at least when ML approaches are being used.The reviewed divergence times and the estimated time-calibrated branch lengths provide a useful tool for future phylogenetic comparative and macroevolutionary studies of Asteraceae.     

Adding time‐calibrated branch lengths to the Asteraceae supertree

Abstract New inference techniques, such as supertrees, have improved the construction of large phylogenies, helping to reveal the tree of life. In addition, these large phylogenies have enhanced the study of other evolutionary questions, such as whether traits have evolved in a neutral or adaptive way, or what factors have influenced diversification. However, supertrees usually lack branch lengths, which are necessary for all these issues to be investigated. Here, divergence times within the largest family of flowering plants, namely the Asteraceae, are reviewed to estimate time‐calibrated branch lengths in the supertree of this lineage. An inconsistency between estimated dates of basal branching events and the earliest asteraceous fossil pollen record was detected. In addition, the impact of different methods of branch length assignment on the total number of transitions between states in the reconstruction of sexual system evolution in Asteraceae was investigated. At least for this dataset, different branch length assignation approaches influenced maximum likelihood (ML) reconstructions only and not Bayesian ones. Therefore, the selection of different branch length information is not arbitrary and should be carefully assessed, at least when ML approaches are being used. The reviewed divergence times and the estimated time‐calibrated branch lengths provide a useful tool for future phylogenetic comparative and macroevolutionary studies of Asteraceae.     

Estimating divergence times in large phylogenetic trees

A new method, PATHd8, for estimating ultrametric trees from trees with edge (branch) lengths proportional to the number of substitutions is proposed. The method allows for an arbitrary number of reference nodes for time calibration, each defined either as absolute age, minimum age, or maximum age, and the tree need not be fully resolved. The method is based on estimating node ages by mean path lengths from the node to the leaves but correcting for deviations from a molecular clock suggested by reference nodes. As opposed to most existing methods allowing substitution rate variation, the new method smoothes substitution rates locally, rather than simultaneously over the whole tree, thus allowing for analysis of very large trees. The performance of PATHd8 is compared with other frequently used methods for estimating divergence times. In analyses of three separate data sets, PATHd8 gives similar divergence times to other methods, the largest difference being between crown group ages, where unconstrained nodes get younger ages when analyzed with PATHd8. Overall, chronograms obtained from other methods appear smoother, whereas PATHd8 preserves more of the heterogeneity seen in the original edge lengths. Divergence times are most evenly spread over the chronograms obtained from the Bayesian implementation and the clock-based Langley-Fitch method, and these two methods produce very similar ages for most nodes. Evaluations of PATHd8 using simulated data suggest that PATHd8 is slightly less precise compared with penalized likelihood, but it gives more sensible answers for extreme data sets. A clear advantage with PATHd8 is that it is more or less instantaneous even with trees having several thousand leaves, whereas other programs often run into problems when analyzing trees with hundreds of leaves. PATHd8 is implemented in freely available software.     

iGLASS: an improvement to the GLASS method for estimating species trees from gene trees

Several methods have been designed to infer species trees from gene trees while taking into account gene tree/species tree discordance. Although some of these methods provide consistent species tree topology estimates under a standard model, most either do not estimate branch lengths or are computationally slow. An exception, the GLASS method of Mossel and Roch, is consistent for the species tree topology, estimates branch lengths, and is computationally fast. However, GLASS systematically overestimates divergence times, leading to biased estimates of species tree branch lengths. By assuming a multispecies coalescent model in which multiple lineages are sampled from each of two taxa at L independent loci, we derive the distribution of the waiting time until the first interspecific coalescence occurs between the two taxa, considering all loci and measuring from the divergence time. We then use the mean of this distribution to derive a correction to the GLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times. We show that our improved estimator, which we call iGLASS, consistently estimates the divergence time between a pair of taxa as the number of loci approaches infinity, and that it is an unbiased estimator of divergence times when one lineage is sampled per taxon. We also show that many commonly used clustering methods can be combined with the iGLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times to produce a consistent estimator of the species tree topology. Through simulations, we show that iGLASS can greatly reduce the bias and mean squared error in obtaining estimates of divergence times in a species tree.     

Fossil calibrations and molecular divergence time estimates in centrarchid fishes (Teleostei: Centrarchidae)

Molecular clock methods allow biologists to estimate divergence times, which in turn play an important role in comparative studies of many evolutionary processes. It is well known that molecular age estimates can be biased by heterogeneity in rates of molecular evolution, but less attention has been paid to the issue of potentially erroneous fossil calibrations. In this study we estimate the timing of diversification in Centrarchidae, an endemic major lineage of the diverse North American freshwater fish fauna, through a new approach to fossil calibration and molecular evolutionary model selection. Given a completely resolved multi-gene molecular phylogeny and a set of multiple fossil-inferred age estimates, we tested for potentially erroneous fossil calibrations using a recently developed fossil cross-validation. We also used fossil information to guide the selection of the optimal molecular evolutionary model with a new fossil jackknife method in a fossil-based model cross-validation. The centrarchid phylogeny resulted from a mixed-model Bayesian strategy that included 14 separate data partitions sampled from three mtDNA and four nuclear genes. Ten of the 31 interspecific nodes in the centrarchid phylogeny were assigned a minimal age estimate from the centrarchid fossil record. Our analyses identified four fossil dates that were inconsistent with the other fossils, and we removed them from the molecular dating analysis. Using fossil-based model cross-validation to determine the optimal smoothing value in penalized likelihood analysis, and six mutually consistent fossil calibrations, the age of the most recent common ancestor of Centrarchidae was 33.59 million years ago (mya). Penalized likelihood analyses of individual data partitions all converged on a very similar age estimate for this node, indicating that rate heterogeneity among data partitions is not confounding our analyses. These results place the origin of the centrarchid radiation at a time of major faunal turnover as the fossil record indicates that the most diverse lineages of the North American freshwater fish fauna originated at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, approximately 34 mya. This time coincided with major global climate change from warm to cool temperatures and a signature of elevated lineage extinction and origination in the fossil record across the tree of life. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of fossil cross-validation to critically assess individual fossil calibration points, providing the ability to discriminate between consistent and inconsistent fossil age estimates that are used for calibrating molecular phylogenies.     

Dating the origin of the major lineages of Branchiopoda

Despite the well-established phylogeny and good fossil record of branchiopods, a consistent macro-evolutionary timescale for the group remains elusive. This study focuses on the early branchiopod divergence dates where fossil record is extremely fragmentary or missing. On the basis of a large genomic dataset and carefully evaluated fossil calibration points, we assess the quality of the branchiopod fossil record by calibrating the tree against well-established first occurrences, providing paleontological estimates of divergence times and completeness of their fossil record. The maximum age constraints were set using a quantitative approach of Marshall (2008). We tested the alternative placements of Yicaris and Wujicaris in the referred arthropod tree via the likelihood checkpoints method. Divergence dates were calculated using Bayesian relaxed molecular clock and penalized likelihood methods. Our results show that the stem group of Branchiopoda is rooted in the late Neoproterozoic (563 ± 7 Ma); the crown-Branchiopoda diverged during middle Cambrian to Early Ordovician (478–512 Ma), likely representing the origin of the freshwater biota; the Phyllopoda clade diverged during Ordovician (448–480 Ma) and Diplostraca during Late Ordovician to early Silurian (430–457 Ma). By evaluating the congruence between the observed times of appearance of clade in the fossil record and the results derived from molecular data, we found that the uncorrelated rate model gave more congruent results for shallower divergence events whereas the auto-correlated rate model gives more congruent results for deeper events.     

Integrating fossils in a molecular‐based phylogeny and testing them as calibration points for divergence time estimates in Menispermaceae

Abstract The phylogeny of extant Menispermaceae (Ranunculales) is reconstructed based on DNA sequences of two chloroplast genes (rbcL and atpB) from 94 species belonging to 56 genera. Fossilized endocarps represent 34 genera. The positions of these are inferred using 30 morphological characters and the molecular phylogeny as a backbone constraint. Nine of the thirteen nodes that are each dated by a fossil are used as calibration points for the estimates of molecular divergence times. BEAST is used to estimate stem age (121.2 Myr) and crown age (105.4 Myr) for Menispermaceae. This method does not require an input tree topology and can also account for rate heterogeneity among lineages. The sensitivity of these estimates to fossil constraints is then evaluated by a cross‐validation procedure. The estimated origin for Menispermaceae is dated to the mid‐Jurassic if the customary maximum age of 125 Myr for eudicots is not implemented. All constraints when used alone failed to estimate node ages in some parts of the tree. Fossils from the Palaeocene and Eocene impose strict constraints. Likewise, the use of Prototinomiscium as a dating constraint for Menispermaceae appears to be a conservative approach.     

Calibrating the Tree of Life: fossils, molecules and evolutionary timescales

Background

Molecular dating has gained ever-increasing interest since the molecular clock hypothesis was proposed in the 1960s. Molecular dating provides detailed temporal frameworks for divergence events in phylogenetic trees, allowing diverse evolutionary questions to be addressed. The key aspect of the molecular clock hypothesis, namely that differences in DNA or protein sequence between two species are proportional to the time elapsed since they diverged, was soon shown to be untenable. Other approaches were proposed to take into account rate heterogeneity among lineages, but the calibration process, by which relative times are transformed into absolute ages, has received little attention until recently. New methods have now been proposed to resolve potential sources of error associated with the calibration of phylogenetic trees, particularly those involving use of the fossil record.

Scope and Conclusions

The use of the fossil record as a source of independent information in the calibration process is the main focus of this paper; other sources of calibration information are also discussed. Particularly error-prone aspects of fossil calibration are identified, such as fossil dating, the phylogenetic placement of the fossil and the incompleteness of the fossil record. Methods proposed to tackle one or more of these potential error sources are discussed (e.g. fossil cross-validation, prior distribution of calibration points and confidence intervals on the fossil record). In conclusion, the fossil record remains the most reliable source of information for the calibration of phylogenetic trees, although associated assumptions and potential bias must be taken into account.     

A hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating estimates of species divergence times

In Bayesian divergence time estimation methods, incorporating calibrating information from the fossil record is commonly done by assigning prior densities to ancestral nodes in the tree. Calibration prior densities are typically parametric distributions offset by minimum age estimates provided by the fossil record. Specification of the parameters of calibration densities requires the user to quantify his or her prior knowledge of the age of the ancestral node relative to the age of its calibrating fossil. The values of these parameters can, potentially, result in biased estimates of node ages if they lead to overly informative prior distributions. Accordingly, determining parameter values that lead to adequate prior densities is not straightforward. In this study, I present a hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating divergence time analyses with multiple fossil age constraints. This approach applies a Dirichlet process prior as a hyperprior on the parameters of calibration prior densities. Specifically, this model assumes that the rate parameters of exponential prior distributions on calibrated nodes are distributed according to a Dirichlet process, whereby the rate parameters are clustered into distinct parameter categories. Both simulated and biological data are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the Dirichlet process hyperprior. Compared with fixed exponential prior densities, the hierarchical Bayesian approach results in more accurate and precise estimates of internal node ages. When this hyperprior is applied using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the ages of calibrated nodes are sampled from mixtures of exponential distributions and uncertainty in the values of calibration density parameters is taken into account.     

DNA and Morphology Unite Two Species and 10 Million Year Old Fossils

Species definition and delimitation is a non-trivial problem in evolutionary biology that is particularly problematic for fossil organisms. This is especially true when considering the continuity of past and present species, because species defined in the fossil record are not necessarily equivalent to species defined in the living fauna. Correctly assigned fossil species are critical for sensitive downstream analysis (e.g., diversification studies and molecular-clock calibration). The marine snail genus Alcithoe exemplifies many of the problems with species identification. The paucity of objective diagnostic characters, prevalence of morphological convergence between species and considerable variability within species that are observed in Alcithoe are typical of a broad range of fossilised organisms. Using a synthesis of molecular and morphometric approaches we show that two taxa currently recognised as distinct are morphological variants of a single species. Furthermore, we validate the fossil record for one of these morphotypes by finding a concordance between the palaeontological record and divergence time of the lineage inferred using molecular-clock analysis. This work demonstrates the utility of living species represented in the fossil record as candidates for molecular-clock calibration, as the veracity of fossil species assignment can be more rigorously tested.     

Calibration choice, rate smoothing, and the pattern of tetrapod diversification according to the long nuclear gene RAG-1

A phylogeny of tetrapods is inferred from nearly complete sequences of the nuclear RAG-1 gene sampled across 88 taxa encompassing all major clades, analyzed via parsimony and Bayesian methods. The phylogeny provides support for Lissamphibia, Theria, Lepidosauria, a turtle-archosaur clade, as well as most traditionally accepted groupings. This tree allows simultaneous molecular clock dating for all tetrapod groups using a set of well-corroborated calibrations. Relaxed clock (PLRS) methods, using the amniote = 315 Mya (million years ago) calibration or a set of consistent calibrations, recovers reasonable divergence dates for most groups. However, the analysis systematically underestimates divergence dates within archosaurs. The bird-crocodile split, robustly documented in the fossil record as being around approximately 245 Mya, is estimated at only approximately 190 Mya, and dates for other divergences within archosaurs are similarly underestimated. Archosaurs, and particulary turtles have slow apparent rates possibly confounding rate modeling, and inclusion of calibrations within archosaurs (despite their high deviances) not only improves divergence estimates within archosaurs, but also across other groups. Notably, the monotreme-therian split ( approximately 210 Mya) matches the fossil record; the squamate radiation ( approximately 190 Mya) is younger than suggested by some recent molecular studies and inconsistent with identification of approximately 220 and approximately 165 Myo (million-year-old) fossils as acrodont iguanians and approximately 95 Myo fossils colubroid snakes; the bird-lizard (reptile) split is considerably older than fossil estimates (< or = 285 Mya); and Sphenodon is a remarkable phylogenetic relic, being the sole survivor of a lineage more than a quarter of a billion years old. Comparison with other molecular clock studies of tetrapod divergences suggests that the common practice of enforcing most calibrations as minima, with a single liberal maximal constraint, will systematically overestimate divergence dates. Similarly, saturation of mitochondrial DNA sequences, and the resultant greater compression of basal branches means that using only external deep calibrations will also lead to inflated age estimates within the focal ingroup.     

Testing the impact of calibration on molecular divergence times using a fossil-rich group: the case of Nothofagus (Fagales)

Although temporal calibration is widely recognized as critical for obtaining accurate divergence-time estimates using molecular dating methods, few studies have evaluated the variation resulting from different calibration strategies. Depending on the information available, researchers have often used primary calibrations from the fossil record or secondary calibrations from previous molecular dating studies. In analyses of flowering plants, primary calibration data can be obtained from macro- and mesofossils (e.g., leaves, flowers, and fruits) or microfossils (e.g., pollen). Fossil data can vary substantially in accuracy and precision, presenting a difficult choice when selecting appropriate calibrations. Here, we test the impact of eight plausible calibration scenarios for Nothofagus (Nothofagaceae, Fagales), a plant genus with a particularly rich and well-studied fossil record. To do so, we reviewed the phylogenetic placement and geochronology of 38 fossil taxa of Nothofagus and other Fagales, and we identified minimum age constraints for up to 18 nodes of the phylogeny of Fagales. Molecular dating analyses were conducted for each scenario using maximum likelihood (RAxML + r8s) and Bayesian (BEAST) approaches on sequence data from six regions of the chloroplast and nuclear genomes. Using either ingroup or outgroup constraints, or both, led to similar age estimates, except near strongly influential calibration nodes. Using "early but risky" fossil constraints in addition to "safe but late" constraints, or using assumptions of vicariance instead of fossil constraints, led to older age estimates. In contrast, using secondary calibration points yielded drastically younger age estimates. This empirical study highlights the critical influence of calibration on molecular dating analyses. Even in a best-case situation, with many thoroughly vetted fossils available, substantial uncertainties can remain in the estimates of divergence times. For example, our estimates for the crown group age of Nothofagus varied from 13 to 113 Ma across our full range of calibration scenarios. We suggest that increased background research should be made at all stages of the calibration process to reduce errors wherever possible, from verifying the geochronological data on the fossils to critical reassessment of their phylogenetic position.     

Multiple sequence alignment accuracy and phylogenetic inference

Phylogenies are often thought to be more dependent upon the specifics of the sequence alignment rather than on the method of reconstruction. Simulation of sequences containing insertion and deletion events was performed in order to determine the role that alignment accuracy plays during phylogenetic inference. Data sets were simulated for pectinate, balanced, and random tree shapes under different conditions (ultrametric equal branch length, ultrametric random branch length, nonultrametric random branch length). Comparisons between hypothesized alignments and true alignments enabled determination of two measures of alignment accuracy, that of the total data set and that of individual branches. In general, our results indicate that as alignment error increases, topological accuracy decreases. This trend was much more pronounced for data sets derived from more pectinate topologies. In contrast, for balanced, ultrametric, equal branch length tree shapes, alignment inaccuracy had little average effect on tree reconstruction. These conclusions are based on average trends of many analyses under different conditions, and any one specific analysis, independent of the alignment accuracy, may recover very accurate or inaccurate topologies. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian, in general, outperformed neighbor joining and maximum parsimony in terms of tree reconstruction accuracy. Results also indicated that as the length of the branch and of the neighboring branches increase, alignment accuracy decreases, and the length of the neighboring branches is the major factor in topological accuracy. Thus, multiple-sequence alignment can be an important factor in downstream effects on topological reconstruction.     

Erratic rates of molecular evolution and incongruence of fossil and molecular divergence time estimates in Ostracoda (Crustacea)

Dating evolutionary origins of taxa is essential for understanding rates and timing of evolutionary events, often inciting intense debate when molecular estimates differ from first fossil appearances. For numerous reasons, ostracods present a challenging case study of rates of evolution and congruence of fossil and molecular divergence time estimates. On the one hand, ostracods have one of the densest fossil records of any metazoan group. However, taxonomy of fossil ostracods is controversial, owing at least in part to homoplasy of carapaces, the most commonly fossilized part. In addition, rates of evolution are variable in ostracods. Here, we report evidence of extreme variation in the rate of molecular evolution in different ostracod groups. This rate is significantly elevated in Halocyprid ostracods, a widespread planktonic group, consistent with previous observations that planktonic groups show elevated rates of molecular evolution. At the same time, the rate of molecular evolution is slow in the lineage leading to Manawa staceyi, a relict species that we estimate diverged approximately 500 million years ago from its closest known living relative. We also report multiple cases of significant incongruence between fossil and molecular estimates of divergence times in Ostracoda. Although relaxed clock methods improve the congruence of fossil and molecular divergence estimates over strict clock models, incongruence is present regardless of method. We hypothesize that this observed incongruence is driven largely by problems with taxonomy of fossil Ostracoda. Our results illustrate the difficulty in consistently estimating lineage divergence times, even in the presence of a voluminous fossil record.     

Testing the molecular clock: molecular and paleontological estimates of divergence times in the Echinoidea (Echinodermata)

The phylogenetic relationships of 46 echinoids, with representatives from 13 of the 14 ordinal-level clades and about 70% of extant families commonly recognized, have been established from 3 genes (3,226 alignable bases) and 119 morphological characters. Morphological and molecular estimates are similar enough to be considered suboptimal estimates of one another, and the combined data provide a tree that, when calibrated against the fossil record, provides paleontological estimates of divergence times and completeness of their fossil record. The order of branching on the cladogram largely agrees with the stratigraphic order of first occurrences and implies that their fossil record is more than 85% complete at family level and at a resolution of 5-Myr time intervals. Molecular estimates of divergence times derived from applying both molecular clock and relaxed molecular clock models are concordant with estimates based on the fossil record in up to 70% of cases, with most concordant results obtained using Sanderson's semiparametric penalized likelihood method and a logarithmic-penalty function. There are 3 regions of the tree where molecular and fossil estimates of divergence time consistently disagree. Comparison with results obtained when molecular divergence dates are estimated from the combined (morphology + gene) tree suggests that errors in phylogenetic reconstruction explain only one of these. In another region the error most likely lies with the paleontological estimates because taxa in this region are demonstrated to have a very poor fossil record. In the third case, morphological and paleontological evidence is much stronger, and the topology for this part of the molecular tree differs from that derived from the combined data. Here the cause of the mismatch is unclear but could be methodological, arising from marked inequality of molecular rates. Overall, the level of agreement reached between these different data and methodological approaches leads us to believe that careful application of likelihood and Bayesian methods to molecular data provides realistic divergence time estimates in the majority of cases (almost 80% in this specific example), thus providing a remarkably well-calibrated phylogeny of a character-rich clade of ubiquitous marine benthic invertebrates.     

CALIBRATING DIVERGENCE TIMES ON SPECIES TREES VERSUS GENE TREES: IMPLICATIONS FOR SPECIATION HISTORY OF APHELOCOMA JAYS

Estimates of the timing of divergence are central to testing the underlying causes of speciation. Relaxed molecular clocks and fossil calibration have improved these estimates; however, these advances are implemented in the context of gene trees, which can overestimate divergence times. Here we couple recent innovations for dating speciation events with the analytical power of species trees, where multilocus data are considered in a coalescent context. Divergence times are estimated in the bird genus Aphelocoma to test whether speciation in these jays coincided with mountain uplift or glacial cycles. Gene trees and species trees show general agreement that diversification began in the Miocene amid mountain uplift. However, dates from the multilocus species tree are more recent, occurring predominately in the Pleistocene, consistent with theory that divergence times can be significantly overestimated with gene‐tree based approaches that do not correct for genetic divergence that predates speciation. In addition to coalescent stochasticity, Haldane's rule could account for some differences in timing estimates between mitochondrial DNA and nuclear genes. By incorporating a fossil calibration applied to the species tree, in addition to the process of gene lineage coalescence, the present approach provides a more biologically realistic framework for dating speciation events, and hence for testing the links between diversification and specific biogeographic and geologic events.     

Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty on phylogeny‐based palaeontological dating and the timing of turtle diversification

Methods improving the performance of molecular dating of divergence time of clades have improved dramatically in recent years. The calibration of molecular dating using the first appearance of a clade in the fossil record is a crucial step towards inferring the minimal diversification time of various groups and the choice of extinct taxa can strongly influence the molecular dates. Here, we evaluate the uncertainty on the phylogenetic position of extinct taxa through non‐parametric bootstrapping. The recognition of phylogenetic uncertainty resulted in the definition of the Bootstrap Uncertainty Range (BUR) for the age of first appearance of a given clade. The BUR is calculated as the interval of geological time in which the diversification of a given clade can be inferred to have occurred, based on the temporal information of the fossil record and the topologies of the bootstrap trees. Divergence times based on BUR analyses were calculated for three clades of turtles: Testudines, Pleurodira and Cryptodira. This resulted in extensive uncertainty ranges of topology‐dependent minimal divergence dates for these clades.