Effective degree network disease models

An effective degree approach to modeling the spread of infectious diseases on a network is introduced and applied to a disease that confers no immunity (a Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible model, abbreviated as SIS) and to a disease that confers permanent immunity (a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model, abbreviated as SIR). Each model is formulated as a large system of ordinary differential equations that keeps track of the number of susceptible and infectious neighbors of an individual. From numerical simulations, these effective degree models are found to be in excellent agreement with the corresponding stochastic processes of the network on a random graph, in that they capture the initial exponential growth rates, the endemic equilibrium of an invading disease for the SIS model, and the epidemic peak for the SIR model. For each of these effective degree models, a formula for the disease threshold condition is derived. The threshold parameter for the SIS model is shown to be larger than that derived from percolation theory for a model with the same disease and network parameters, and consequently a disease may be able to invade with lower transmission than predicted by percolation theory. For the SIR model, the threshold condition is equal to that predicted by percolation theory. Thus unlike the classical homogeneous mixing disease models, the SIS and SIR effective degree models have different disease threshold conditions.     

基于小波神经网络的麦蚜发生程度预测模型

【目的】建立基于小波神经网络病虫害预测预报模型,对提前采取防病防虫措施、减少农作物病虫害损失、提高农作物产量与质量具有重要意义。【方法】本研究以山西省运城市芮城县1980-2014年麦蚜发生程度和气象因子数据为基础,采用主成分分析法从40个基础气象因子中整合形成9个新的自变量输入模型,采用试凑法筛选隐含层节点数,用1980-2009年的数据进行网络训练,对2010-2014年麦蚜发生程度进行回测,建立了以Morlet小波函数为传递函数的小波神经网络模型,并与以Sigmoid函数为传递函数的BP神经网络模型进行了比较。【结果】小波和BP神经网络两种模型对训练样本的平均拟合精度均有10年以上超过80%,两者MAPE 值分别为 89.83% 和83.07%,MSE 值分别为0.0578和0.6192。【结论】两个模型都能较好地描述麦蚜发生程度;从预测精度和模型的稳定性来看,小波神经网络好于BP神经网络。     

A network diffusion model of disease progression in dementia

Patterns of dementia are known to fall into dissociated but dispersed brain networks, suggesting that the disease is transmitted along neuronal pathways rather than by proximity. This view is supported by neuropathological evidence for "prion-like" transsynaptic transmission of disease agents like misfolded tau and beta amyloid. We mathematically model this transmission by a diffusive mechanism mediated by?the brain's connectivity network obtained from tractography of 14 healthy-brain MRIs. Subsequent graph theoretic analysis provides a fully quantitative, testable, predictive model of dementia. Specifically, we predict spatially distinct "persistent modes," which, we found, recapitulate known patterns of dementia and match recent reports of selectively vulnerable dissociated brain networks. Model predictions also closely match T1-weighted MRI volumetrics of 18 Alzheimer's and 18 frontotemporal dementia subjects. Prevalence rates predicted by the model strongly agree with published data. This work has many important implications, including dimensionality reduction, differential diagnosis, and especially prediction of future atrophy using baseline MRI morphometrics.     

Sustainable reverse logistics network design for household plastic waste

Plastic recycling is a legal requirement and can yield environmental benefits. In the Netherlands, there is a complex network of various collection methods, separation centers, sorting centers and reprocessors. The first step of the recycling system, separating plastics from other waste, can occur within households (source-separation) or in separation centers (post-separation), making a difference in collection channel choice and technology requirements. The purpose of this paper is to provide decision support on choosing the most suitable combination of separation methods in the Netherlands. Decision support is given through optimized reverse logistics network design which makes the overall recycling system more efficient and sustainable, while taking into account the interests of various stakeholders (municipalities, households, etc.). A mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model, which minimizes both transportation cost and environmental impact, is used in this network design. The research follows the approach of scenario study; the baseline scenario is the current situation and other scenarios are designed with various strategic alternatives. Modeling is conducted by using a graphical optimization tool IBM LogicNet Plus 7.1. Comparing these scenarios, the results show that the current network settings of the baseline situation is efficient in logistics terms but has a potential to adapt to strategic changes, depending on the assumptions regarding availability of the required processing facilities to treat plastic waste. In some of the tested scenarios, a separate collection channel for Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) bottles is cost efficient and saves carbon emission. Although the figures differ depending on the separation method choices of municipalities, our modeling result of all the tested scenarios shows a saving of more than 25 % carbon emission compared to the current network.     

Biological network comparison using graphlet degree distribution

MOTIVATION: Analogous to biological sequence comparison, comparing cellular networks is an important problem that could provide insight into biological understanding and therapeutics. For technical reasons, comparing large networks is computationally infeasible, and thus heuristics, such as the degree distribution, clustering coefficient, diameter, and relative graphlet frequency distribution have been sought. It is easy to demonstrate that two networks are different by simply showing a short list of properties in which they differ. It is much harder to show that two networks are similar, as it requires demonstrating their similarity in all of their exponentially many properties. Clearly, it is computationally prohibitive to analyze all network properties, but the larger the number of constraints we impose in determining network similarity, the more likely it is that the networks will truly be similar. RESULTS: We introduce a new systematic measure of a network's local structure that imposes a large number of similarity constraints on networks being compared. In particular, we generalize the degree distribution, which measures the number of nodes 'touching' k edges, into distributions measuring the number of nodes 'touching' k graphlets, where graphlets are small connected non-isomorphic subgraphs of a large network. Our new measure of network local structure consists of 73 graphlet degree distributions of graphlets with 2-5 nodes, but it is easily extendible to a greater number of constraints (i.e. graphlets), if necessary, and the extensions are limited only by the available CPU. Furthermore, we show a way to combine the 73 graphlet degree distributions into a network 'agreement' measure which is a number between 0 and 1, where 1 means that networks have identical distributions and 0 means that they are far apart. Based on this new network agreement measure, we show that almost all of the 14 eukaryotic PPI networks, including human, resulting from various high-throughput experimental techniques, as well as from curated databases, are better modeled by geometric random graphs than by Erd?s-Rény, random scale-free, or Barabási-Albert scale-free networks. AVAILABILITY: Software executables are available upon request.     

Effective treatment of an orthologous model of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is a leading cause of end-stage renal disease. The vasopressin V2 receptor (VPV2R) antagonist OPC31260 has been effective in two animal models of PKD with pathologies that are probably related. Here we show, in a mouse model of ADPKD (Pkd2(-/tm1Som)), a similar cellular phenotype and response to OPC31260 treatment, with reduction of renal cyclic AMP (cAMP) levels, prevention of renal enlargement, marked inhibition of cystogenesis and protection of renal function.     

Autologistic network model on binary data for disease progression study

This paper focuses on analysis of spatiotemporal binary data with absorbing states. The research was motivated by a clinical study on amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a neurological disease marked by gradual loss of muscle strength over time in multiple body regions. We propose an autologistic regression model to capture complex spatial and temporal dependencies in muscle strength among different muscles. As it is not clear how the disease spreads from one muscle to another, it may not be reasonable to define a neighborhood structure based on spatial proximity. Relaxing the requirement for prespecification of spatial neighborhoods as in existing models, our method identifies an underlying network structure empirically to describe the pattern of spreading disease. The model also allows the network autoregressive effects to vary depending on the muscles’ previous status. Based on the joint distribution derived from this autologistic model, the joint transition probabilities of responses among locations can be estimated and the disease status can be predicted in the next time interval. Model parameters are estimated through maximization of penalized pseudo‐likelihood. Postmodel selection inference was conducted via a bias‐correction method, for which the asymptotic distributions were derived. Simulation studies were conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The method was applied to the analysis of muscle strength loss from the ALS clinical study.     

A genetic interaction network model of a complex neurological disease

Absence epilepsy (AE) is a complex, heritable disease characterized by a brief disruption of normal behavior and accompanying spike‐wave discharges (SWD) on the electroencephalogram. Only a handful of genes has been definitively associated with AE in humans and rodent models. Most studies suggest that genetic interactions play a large role in the etiology and severity of AE, but mapping and understanding their architecture remains a challenge, requiring new computational approaches. Here we use combined analysis of pleiotropy and epistasis (CAPE) to detect and interpret genetic interactions in a meta‐population derived from three C3H × B6J strain crosses, each of which is fixed for a different SWD‐causing mutation. Although each mutation causes SWD through a different molecular mechanism, the phenotypes caused by each mutation are exacerbated on the C3H genetic background compared with B6J, suggesting common modifiers. By combining information across two phenotypic measures – SWD duration and frequency – CAPE showed a large, directed genetic network consisting of suppressive and enhancing interactions between loci on 10 chromosomes. These results illustrate the power of CAPE in identifying novel modifier loci and interactions in a complex neurological disease, toward a more comprehensive view of its underlying genetic architecture.     

Integrating the Alzheimer's disease proteome and transcriptome: a comprehensive network model of a complex disease

Network models combined with gene expression studies have become useful tools for studying complex diseases like Alzheimer's disease. We constructed a "Core" Alzheimer's disease protein interaction network by human curation of the primary literature. The Core network consisted of 775 nodes and 2,204 interactions. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive and accurate protein interaction network yet constructed for Alzheimer's disease. An "Expanded" network was computationally constructed by adding additional proteins that interacted with Core network proteins, and consisted of 4,945 nodes and 26,064 interactions. We then mapped existing gene expression studies to the Core network. This combined data model identified the MAPK/ERK pathway and clathrin-mediated receptor endocytosis as key pathways in Alzheimer's disease. Important proteins in the MAPK/ERK pathway that interacted in the Core network formed a downregulated cluster of nodes, whereas clathrin and several clathrin accessory proteins that interacted in the Core network formed an upregulated cluster of nodes. The MAPK/ERK pathway is a key component in synaptic plasticity and learning, processes disrupted in Alzheimer's. Clathrin and clathrin adaptor proteins are involved in the endocytosis of the APP protein that can lead to increased intracellular levels of amyloid beta peptide, contributing to the progression of Alzheimer's.     

A network with tunable clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution, and an epidemic thereon

A random network model which allows for tunable, quite general forms of clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution is defined. The model is an extension of the configuration model, in which stubs (half-edges) are paired to form a network. Clustering is obtained by forming small completely connected subgroups, and positive (negative) degree correlation is obtained by connecting a fraction of the stubs with stubs of similar (dissimilar) degree. An SIR (Susceptible $\rightarrow $ Infective $\rightarrow $ Recovered) epidemic model is defined on this network. Asymptotic properties of both the network and the epidemic, as the population size tends to infinity, are derived: the degree distribution, degree correlation and clustering coefficient, as well as a reproduction number $R_*$ , the probability of a major outbreak and the relative size of such an outbreak. The theory is illustrated by Monte Carlo simulations and numerical examples. The main findings are that (1) clustering tends to decrease the spread of disease, (2) the effect of degree correlation is appreciably greater when the disease is close to threshold than when it is well above threshold and (3) disease spread broadly increases with degree correlation $\rho $ when $R_*$ is just above its threshold value of one and decreases with $\rho $ when $R_*$ is well above one.     

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity explain disease dynamics in a spatially explicit network model

There is an increasing recognition that individual-level spatial and temporal heterogeneity may play an important role in metapopulation dynamics and persistence. In particular, the patterns of contact within and between aggregates (e.g., demes) at different spatial and temporal scales may reveal important mechanisms governing metapopulation dynamics. Using 7 years of data on the interaction between the anther smut fungus (Microbotryum violaceum) and fire pink (Silene virginica), we show how the application of spatially explicit and implicit network models can be used to make accurate predictions of infection dynamics in spatially structured populations. Explicit consideration of both spatial and temporal organization reveals the role of each in spreading risk for both the host and the pathogen. This work suggests that the application of spatially explicit network models can yield important insights into how heterogeneous structure can promote the persistence of species in natural landscapes.     

A dysregulated endocannabinoid-eicosanoid network supports pathogenesis in a mouse model of Alzheimer's disease

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Highlights? Monoacylglycerol lipase (MAGL) is a major contributor to brain arachidonic acid pools ? MAGL mutation decreases neuroinflammation and amyloid β in Alzheimer's disease mouse ? MAGL blockade recapitulates brain prostaglandin and cytokine-lowering effects ? MAGL inhibitors may be a next-generation strategy for combating Alzheimer's disease     

Effective drug discovery in Chagas disease

The Chagas field has gone >50 years without tangible progress toward new therapies. My colleagues and I have recently reported on a benzoxaborole compound that achieves consistent parasitological cure in experimentally infected mice and in naturally infected non-human primates (NHPs). While these results do not assure success in human clinical trials, they significantly de-risk this process and form a strong justification for such trials. Highly effective drug discovery depends on a solid understanding of host and parasite biology and excellent knowledge in designing and validating chemical entities. This opinion piece seeks to provide perspectives on the process that led to the discovery of AN15368, with the hope that this will facilitate the discovery of additional clinical candidates for Chagas disease.     

Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure

This paper is concerned with a stochastic SIR (susceptible → infective → removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals, with a random network of social contacts, that is also partitioned into households. The behaviour of the model as the population size tends to infinity in an appropriate fashion is investigated. A threshold parameter which determines whether or not an epidemic with few initial infectives can become established and lead to a major outbreak is obtained, as are the probability that a major outbreak occurs and the expected proportion of the population that are ultimately infected by such an outbreak, together with methods for calculating these quantities. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these asymptotic quantities accurately reflect the behaviour of finite populations, even for only moderately sized finite populations. The model is compared and contrasted with related models previously studied in the literature. The effects of the amount of clustering present in the overall population structure and the infectious period distribution on the outcomes of the model are also explored.     

A model for altered neural network dynamics related to prehension movements in Parkinson disease

In this paper, we present a neural network model of the interactions between cortex and the basal ganglia during prehensile movements. Computational neuroscience methods are used to explore the hypothesis that the altered kinematic patterns observed in Parkinson’s disease patients performing prehensile movements is mainly due to an altered neuronal activity located in the networks of cholinergic (ACh) interneurons of the striatum. These striatal cells, under a strong influence of the dopaminergic system, significantly contribute to the neural processing within the striatum and in the cortico-basal ganglia loops. In order to test this hypothesis, a large-scale model of neural interactions in the basal ganglia has been integrated with previous models accounting for the cortical organization of goal directed reaching and grasping movements in normal and perturbed conditions. We carry out a discussion of the model hypothesis validation by providing a control engineering analysis and by comparing results of real experiments with our simulation results in conditions resembling these original experiments.