Coding of reward risk by orbitofrontal neurons is mostly distinct from coding of reward value

Risky decision-making is altered in humans and animals with damage to the orbitofrontal cortex. However, the cellular function of the intact orbitofrontal cortex in processing information relevant for risky decisions is unknown. We recorded responses of single orbitofrontal neurons while monkeys viewed visual cues representing the key decision parameters, reward risk and value. Risk was defined as the mathematical variance of binary symmetric probability distributions of reward magnitudes; value was defined as non-risky reward magnitude. Monkeys displayed graded behavioral preferences for risky outcomes, as they did for value. A population of orbitofrontal neurons showed a distinctive risk signal: their cues and reward responses covaried monotonically with the variance of the different reward distributions without monotonically coding reward value. Furthermore, a small but statistically significant fraction of risk responses also coded reward value. These risk signals may provide physiological correlates for the role of the orbitofrontal cortex in risk processing.     

Individual Choices in Dynamic Networks: An Experiment on Social Preferences

Game-theoretic models of network formation typically assume that people create relations so as to maximize their own outcome in the network. Recent experiments on network formation suggest that the assumption of self-interest might be unwarranted and that social preferences, such as altruism and inequality aversion, play a role in the formation of social networks. We developed an experiment to systematically investigate whether people show preferences for outcomes of others during network formation. We find that such preferences play a role when network decisions degenerate to simple two-person decision tasks. In more complex environments, however, we find little evidence for social preferences as a significant decision criterion. Furthermore, we find some evidence for farsighted behavior in network formation.     

Balancing the dilution and oddity effects: decisions depend on body size

Background

Grouping behaviour, common across the animal kingdom, is known to reduce an individual''s risk of predation; particularly through dilution of individual risk and predator confusion (predator inability to single out an individual for attack). Theory predicts greater risk of predation to individuals more conspicuous to predators by difference in appearance from the group (the ‘oddity’ effect). Thus, animals should choose group mates close in appearance to themselves (eg. similar size), whilst also choosing a large group.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We used the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata), a well known model species of group-living freshwater fish, in a series of binary choice trials investigating the outcome of conflict between preferences for large and phenotypically matched groups along a predation risk gradient. We found body-size dependent differences in the resultant social decisions. Large fish preferred shoaling with size-matched individuals, while small fish demonstrated no preference. There was a trend towards reduced preferences for the matched shoal under increased predation risk. Small fish were more active than large fish, moving between shoals more frequently. Activity levels increased as predation risk decreased. We found no effect of unmatched shoal size on preferences or activity.

Conclusions and Significance

Our results suggest that predation risk and individual body size act together to influence shoaling decisions. Oddity was more important for large than small fish, reducing in importance at higher predation risks. Dilution was potentially of limited importance at these shoal sizes. Activity levels may relate to how much sampling of each shoal was needed by the test fish during decision making. Predation pressure may select for better decision makers to survive to larger size, or that older, larger fish have learned to make shoaling decisions more efficiently, and this, combined with their size relative to shoal-mates, and attractiveness as prey items influences shoaling decisions.     

How public reaction to disease information across scales and the impacts of vector control methods influence disease prevalence and control efficacy

With the development of social media, the information about vector-borne disease incidence over broad spatial scales can cause demand for local vector control before local risk exists. Anticipatory intervention may still benefit local disease control efforts; however, infection risks are not the only focal concerns governing public demand for vector control. Concern for environmental contamination from pesticides and economic limitations on the frequency and magnitude of control measures also play key roles. Further, public concern may be focused more on ecological factors (i.e., controlling mosquito populations) or on epidemiological factors (i.e., controlling infection-carrying mosquitoes), which may lead to very different control outcomes. Here we introduced a generic Ross-MacDonald model, incorporating these factors under three spatial scales of disease information: local, regional, and global. We tailored and parameterized the model for Zika virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquito. We found that sensitive reactivity caused by larger-scale incidence information could decrease average human infections per patch breeding capacity, however, the associated increase in total control effort plays a larger role, which leads to an overall decrease in control efficacy. The shift of focal concerns from epidemiological to ecological risk could relax the negative effect of the sensitive reactivity on control efficacy when mosquito breeding capacity populations are expected to be large. This work demonstrates that, depending on expected total mosquito breeding capacity population size, and weights of different focal concerns, large-scale disease information can reduce disease infections without lowering control efficacy. Our findings provide guidance for vector-control strategies by considering public reaction through social media.     

Assaying the Effect of Levodopa on the Evaluation of Risk in Healthy Humans

In humans, dopamine is implicated in reward and risk-based decision-making. However, the specific effects of dopamine augmentation on risk evaluation are unclear. Here we sought to measure the effect of 100 mg oral levodopa, which enhances synaptic release of dopamine, on choice behaviour in healthy humans. We use a paradigm without feedback or learning, which solely isolates effects on risk evaluation. We present two studies (n = 20; n = 20) employing a randomised, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design. We manipulated different dimensions of risk in a controlled economic paradigm. We test effects on risk-reward tradeoffs, assaying both aversion to variance (the spread of possible outcomes) and preference for relative losses and gains (asymmetry of outcomes - skewness), dissociating this from potential non-specific effects on choice randomness using behavioural modelling. There were no systematic effects of levodopa on risk attitudes, either for variance or skewness. However, there was a drift towards more risk-averse behaviour over time, indicating that this paradigm was sensitive to detect changes in risk-preferences. These findings suggest that levodopa administration does not change the evaluation of risk. One possible reason is that dopaminergic influences on decision making may be due to changing the response to reward feedback.     

Does the community want devolved authority? Results of deliberative polling in Ontario.

OBJECTIVE: To obtain and contrast the informed opinions of people in five decision-making groups that could have a role in devolved governance of health care and social services. DESIGN: Deliberative polling. SETTING: Three rural and three urban communities selected from the 32 areas covered by a district health council in Ontario. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 280 citizens from five potential decision-making groups: randomly selected citizens, attendees at town-hall meetings, appointees to district health councils, elected officials and experts in health care and social services. INTERVENTION: Participants'' opinions were polled during 29 structured 2-hour meetings. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants'' opinions on their personal willingness and their group''s suitability to be involved in devolved decision making, desired type of decision-making involvement, information preferences, preferred areas of decision-making involvement and preferred composition of decision-making bodies. RESULTS: Mean attendance at each meeting was 9.6 citizens. Although there were some significant differences in opinion among the five potential decision-making groups, there were few differences among citizens from different geographic areas. A total of 189 (72%) of people polled were personally willing to take on a role involving responsibility for overall decision-making, but far fewer thought that their group was suited to taking on responsibility (30%) or a consulting role (55%). Elected officials were the most willing (85% personally willing, 50% thought their group was suitable) and randomly selected citizens the least willing (60% personally willing, 17% thought their group was suitable) to take responsibility for overall decision making. Most citizens polled indicated less interest in involvement in specific types of decisions, except for planning and setting priorities, than in overall decision making. Only 24 participants (9%) rated their own group as suitable to take responsibility for raising revenue, 91 (33%) deemed their group suited to distribution of funds and 108 (39%) felt their group was suitable for management of services. People in all five groups ranked health care needs (mean rank 1.5 out of four options) as the most important and preferences (mean rank 3.6) as the least important information. They rated a combination body involving several community groups as the most suitable overall decision-making body (8.8 on 10-point scale). Participants favoured the representation of elected officials, the provincial government and experts on combination bodies responsible for the specific types of decisions. Overall, as the complexity of devolved decision making became clear, participants tended to assign authority to traditional decision makers such as elected officials, experts and the provincial government, but also favoured a consulting role for attendees at town-hall meetings (i.e., interested citizens). CONCLUSION: There are significant differences among groups in the community in their willingness to be involved, desired roles and representation in devolved decision making on health care and social services in Ontario.     

State Dependent Valuation: The Effect of Deprivation on Risk Preferences

The internal state of an organism affects its choices. Previous studies in various non-human animals have demonstrated a complex, and in some cases non-monotonic, interaction between internal state and risk preferences. Our aim was to examine the systematic effects of deprivation on human decision-making across various reward types. Using both a non-parametric approach and a classical economic analysis, we asked whether the risk attitudes of human subjects towards money, food and water rewards would change as a function of their internal metabolic state. Our findings replicate some previous work suggesting that, on average, humans become more risk tolerant in their monetary decisions, as they get hungry. However, our specific approach allowed us to make two novel observations about the complex interaction between internal state and risk preferences. First, we found that the change in risk attitude induced by food deprivation is a general phenomenon, affecting attitudes towards both monetary and consumable rewards. But much more importantly, our data indicate that rather than each subject becoming more risk tolerant as previously hypothesized based on averaging across subjects, we found that as a population of human subjects becomes food deprived the heterogeneity of their risk attitudes collapses towards a fixed point. Thus subjects who show high-risk aversion while satiated shift towards moderate risk aversion when deprived but subjects who are risk tolerant become more risk averse. These findings demonstrate a more complicated interaction between internal state and risk preferences and raise some interesting implications for both day-to-day decisions and financial market structures.     

Ecological Risks and Community Perceptions of Fairness and Justice: A Cross-Cultural Model

Intergenerational justice is implicit in international commitments to sustainability. If ecological, economic, and social components of sustainability are to be achieved there is a necessity for intergenerational justice considerations to be included in decision-making. The present generation's risk judgments should include consideration of the possible outcomes for their children. But intergenerational issues cannot be considered in isolation from other current risk and fairness concerns. This article reports a community-based integrative model that describes justice and other attitudes and motivations that determine community and individual pro-environmental behavior in two nations: Germany and Australia. This model can account for a considerable amount of the variance in political compliance as well as various pro-environmental behaviors. Group or individual self-interests have nearly no effects on global protective behavior. It is shown that universal as well as contextual principles including distributive (within or between generations), procedural and interactive justice, play a crucial role in fairness judgments. Other principles are also taken into account, such as efficiency, environmental rights, and rights to economic welfare. The results are discussed in relation to the importance of complex community fairness judgments in predicting and evaluating acceptance of political decisions, and for promoting proenvironmental behavior.     

Environmental Risk Management Decision-Making in a Societal Context

Recent studies point to the need for improved understanding of environmental management frameworks designed to combine qualitative public and quantitative technical inputs in decision-making processes. Flux in public perception and concern about risks imply frameworks must be iterative in nature and incorporate a variety of assessment triggers in the form of decision points. A conceptual model is proposed here to explain the de facto operation of standard risk analytic frameworks within the broader sociopolitical milieu of public policy. The model is presented as a decision flow diagram that emphasizes setting environmental management goals based on societal input and the formulation of decision criteria for selecting management actions to achieve those goals. Prospective and retrospective decision control points operate to select management options that, respectively, avoid or reduce actual or predicted effects. Feedback loops that modify risk management outcomes are identified. Technical and scientific inputs (i.e., risk analysis) are assigned an essential information role within the framework and are responsible for informing the management process with the results of appropriately conducted and reviewed investigations. The proposed model is intended primarily to indicate how environmental risk management decision-making and associated technical assessments may be influenced by social pressures. It is hoped this understanding will lead to analytical transparency and better public communication of the environmental implications of policy options.     

Collective Learning and Optimal Consensus Decisions in Social Animal Groups

Learning has been studied extensively in the context of isolated individuals. However, many organisms are social and consequently make decisions both individually and as part of a collective. Reaching consensus necessarily means that a single option is chosen by the group, even when there are dissenting opinions. This decision-making process decouples the otherwise direct relationship between animals'' preferences and their experiences (the outcomes of decisions). Instead, because an individual''s learned preferences influence what others experience, and therefore learn about, collective decisions couple the learning processes between social organisms. This introduces a new, and previously unexplored, dynamical relationship between preference, action, experience and learning. Here we model collective learning within animal groups that make consensus decisions. We reveal how learning as part of a collective results in behavior that is fundamentally different from that learned in isolation, allowing grouping organisms to spontaneously (and indirectly) detect correlations between group members'' observations of environmental cues, adjust strategy as a function of changing group size (even if that group size is not known to the individual), and achieve a decision accuracy that is very close to that which is provably optimal, regardless of environmental contingencies. Because these properties make minimal cognitive demands on individuals, collective learning, and the capabilities it affords, may be widespread among group-living organisms. Our work emphasizes the importance and need for theoretical and experimental work that considers the mechanism and consequences of learning in a social context.     

Effect of delay and social distance on the perceived value of social interaction

Temporal discounting is a process by which the perceived value of an outcome decreases as delay increases. Social discounting is a process by which the perceived value of an outcome decreases as the social distance between the decision-maker and recipient increases. Both temporal and social discounting are well established for monetary outcomes. However, little is known regarding the effect of delay-to-occurrence or increased social distance on the perceived value of social interactions. The current study demonstrates that the decrease in perceived value for delayed social interactions is well described by the same hyperbola-like function used for monetary outcomes and that the rate of discounting decreases (indicating increased preference for larger, more delayed outcomes) as social distance increases. Conceptualizing the current discounting procedure as entailing both potential gains and losses, suggest that under certain circumstances, higher discount rates may not reflect increased preference.     

Variation in primate decision-making under uncertainty and the roots of human economic behaviour

Uncertainty is a ubiquitous component of human economic behaviour, yet people can vary in their preferences for risk across populations, individuals and different points in time. As uncertainty also characterizes many aspects of animal decision-making, comparative research can help evaluate different potential mechanisms that generate this variation, including the role of biological differences or maturational change versus cultural learning, as well as identify human-unique components of economic decision-making. Here, we examine decision-making under risk across non-human primates, our closest relatives. We first review theoretical approaches and current methods for understanding decision-making in animals. We then assess the current evidence for variation in animal preferences between species and populations, between individuals based on personality, sex and age, and finally, between different contexts and individual states. We then use these primate data to evaluate the processes that can shape human decision-making strategies and identify the primate foundations of human economic behaviour.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Existence and prevalence of economic behaviours among non-human primates’.     

When None of Us Perform Better than All of Us Together: The Role of Analogical Decision Rules in Groups

During social interactions, groups develop collective competencies that (ideally) should assist groups to outperform average standalone individual members (weak cognitive synergy) or the best performing member in the group (strong cognitive synergy). In two experimental studies we manipulate the type of decision rule used in group decision-making (identify the best vs. collaborative), and the way in which the decision rules are induced (direct vs. analogical) and we test the effect of these two manipulations on the emergence of strong and weak cognitive synergy. Our most important results indicate that an analogically induced decision rule (imitate-the-successful heuristic) in which groups have to identify the best member and build on his/her performance (take-the-best heuristic) is the most conducive for strong cognitive synergy. Our studies bring evidence for the role of analogy-making in groups as well as the role of fast-and-frugal heuristics for group decision-making.     

Noise improves collective decision-making by ants in dynamic environments

Recruitment via pheromone trails by ants is arguably one of the best-studied examples of self-organization in animal societies. Yet it is still unclear if and how trail recruitment allows a colony to adapt to changes in its foraging environment. We study foraging decisions by colonies of the ant Pheidole megacephala under dynamic conditions. Our experiments show that P. megacephala, unlike many other mass recruiting species, can make a collective decision for the better of two food sources even when the environment changes dynamically. We developed a stochastic differential equation model that explains our data qualitatively and quantitatively. Analysing this model reveals that both deterministic and stochastic effects (noise) work together to allow colonies to efficiently track changes in the environment. Our study thus suggests that a certain level of noise is not a disturbance in self-organized decision-making but rather serves an important functional role.     

Evaluating the Clinical Impact of a Genomic Classifier in Prostate Cancer Using Individualized Decision Analysis

Background

Currently there is controversy surrounding the optimal way to treat patients with prostate cancer in the post-prostatectomy setting. Adjuvant therapies carry possible benefits of improved curative results, but there is uncertainty in which patients should receive adjuvant therapy. There are concerns about giving toxicity to a whole population for the benefit of only a subset. We hypothesized that making post-prostatectomy treatment decisions using genomics-based risk prediction estimates would improve cancer and quality of life outcomes.

Methods

We developed a state-transition model to simulate outcomes over a 10 year horizon for a cohort of post-prostatectomy patients. Outcomes included cancer progression rates at 5 and 10 years, overall survival, and quality-adjusted survival with reductions for treatment, side effects, and cancer stage. We compared outcomes using population-level versus individual-level risk of cancer progression, and for genomics-based care versus usual care treatment recommendations.

Results

Cancer progression outcomes, expected life-years (LYs), and expected quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were significantly different when individual genomics-based cancer progression risk estimates were used in place of population-level risk estimates. Use of the genomic classifier to guide treatment decisions provided small, but statistically significant, improvements in model outcomes. We observed an additional 0.03 LYs and 0.07 QALYs, a 12% relative increase in the 5-year recurrence-free survival probability, and a 4% relative reduction in the 5-year probability of metastatic disease or death.

Conclusions

The use of genomics-based risk prediction to guide treatment decisions may improve outcomes for prostate cancer patients. This study offers a framework for individualized decision analysis, and can be extended to incorporate a wide range of personal attributes to enable delivery of patient-centered tools for informed decision-making.     

Divergent male and female mate preferences do not explain incipient speciation between lizard lineages

Diversification in sexual signals is often taken as evidence for the importance of sexual selection in speciation. However, in order for sexual selection to generate reproductive isolation between populations, both signals and mate preferences must diverge together. Furthermore, assortative mating may result from multiple behavioral mechanisms, including female mate preferences, male mate preferences, and male–male competition; yet their relative contributions are rarely evaluated. Here, we explored the role of mate preferences and male competitive ability as potential barriers to gene flow between 2 divergent lineages of the tawny dragon lizard, Ctenophorus decresii, which differ in male throat coloration. We found stronger behavioral barriers to pairings between southern lineage males and northern lineage females than between northern males and southern females, indicating incomplete and asymmetric behavioral isolating barriers. These results were driven by both male and female mate preferences rather than lineage differences in male competitive ability. Intrasexual selection is therefore unlikely to drive the outcome of secondary contact in C. decresii, despite its widely acknowledged importance in lizards. Our results are consistent with the emerging view that although both male and female mate preferences can diverge alongside sexual signals, speciation is rarely driven by divergent sexual selection alone.     

Dissecting the links between reward and loss,decision-making,and self-reported affect using a computational approach

Links between affective states and risk-taking are often characterised using summary statistics from serial decision-making tasks. However, our understanding of these links, and the utility of decision-making as a marker of affect, needs to accommodate the fact that ongoing (e.g., within-task) experience of rewarding and punishing decision outcomes may alter future decisions and affective states. To date, the interplay between affect, ongoing reward and punisher experience, and decision-making has received little detailed investigation. Here, we examined the relationships between reward and loss experience, affect, and decision-making in humans using a novel judgement bias task analysed with a novel computational model. We demonstrated the influence of within-task favourability on decision-making, with more risk-averse/‘pessimistic’ decisions following more positive previous outcomes and a greater current average earning rate. Additionally, individuals reporting more negative affect tended to exhibit greater risk-seeking decision-making, and, based on our model, estimated time more poorly. We also found that individuals reported more positive affective valence during periods of the task when prediction errors and offered decision outcomes were more positive. Our results thus provide new evidence that (short-term) within-task rewarding and punishing experiences determine both future decision-making and subjectively experienced affective states.     

Ontogeny of food-caching site preferences in young Florida Scrub-Jays: evidence of learning or changing social status?

Florida Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) are cooperative breeders endemic to Florida’s oak scrub. In autumn, Florida Scrub-Jays cache thousands of acorns and exhibit behaviors that appear to balance cache site selection against food degradation or cache robbery. However, both experience and position within a social dominance hierarchy could affect individual cache preferences. We examined the cache site preferences of birds with differing levels of caching experience and at different strata within a complex social dominance hierarchy. Our objective was to determine how experience, social position, and social context when caching influenced microhabitat preferences, and if these change as jays age, gain experience, and their social position changes. Naïve first-year birds preferred to cache in well-hidden, densely vegetated sites with relatively high soil moisture content. Naïve birds also cached farther from provisioning points if observed by a socially dominant bird than when they were alone or in the presence of birds of equal social status. Experienced adults preferred to cache in open, dry sandy sites and social context at the time of caching did not influence their preferences. As naïve birds aged, they gained experience and their social position changed. Experienced second-year birds shifted their preference to more open, drier sites, and did so more often when they remained subordinate within their group rather than becoming dominant breeders. Second-year birds that remained subordinate did not alter their caching behavior if observed by dominant birds. These patterns suggest that after gaining experience, jays learned which sites were more appropriate for caching and shifted their preference, regardless of their changing social status. We suggest that the risk of cache loss to food degradation might be greater than the risk of pilfering for Florida Scrub-Jays, especially for birds in any social strata except the most subordinate, but this requires additional study.     

Context-dependent foraging choices in risk-sensitive starlings

Existing models of risk-sensitive foraging assume that animals assign value to different options according to an absolute currency. It follows from this assumption that choices are expected to be both transitive and regular, because the value assigned to an option is independent of its context. I tested these predictions by comparing preferences obtained in binary and trinary contexts. European starlings, Sturnus vulgaris, were trained using an operant paradigm to forage for three options: Constant (C) that provided a fixed number of food pellets; Low variance (L) with a coefficient of variation of 71% in the number of pellets; High variance (H) with a coefficient of variation of 106%. The preferences of the birds were tested in three binary choice treatments (CL, CH, LH) and one trinary choice treatment (CLH). Overall, there was no evidence for violations of either transitivity or regularity. However, overall, a bird's relative preference for its most preferred option over its second most preferred option was significantly greater in the trinary treatment than in the comparable binary treatment. This effect of context on choice is compatible with starlings' use of comparative instead of absolute currencies in decision making. Copyright 2002 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.     

Predicting Human Preferences Using the Block Structure of Complex Social Networks

With ever-increasing available data, predicting individuals'' preferences and helping them locate the most relevant information has become a pressing need. Understanding and predicting preferences is also important from a fundamental point of view, as part of what has been called a “new” computational social science. Here, we propose a novel approach based on stochastic block models, which have been developed by sociologists as plausible models of complex networks of social interactions. Our model is in the spirit of predicting individuals'' preferences based on the preferences of others but, rather than fitting a particular model, we rely on a Bayesian approach that samples over the ensemble of all possible models. We show that our approach is considerably more accurate than leading recommender algorithms, with major relative improvements between 38% and 99% over industry-level algorithms. Besides, our approach sheds light on decision-making processes by identifying groups of individuals that have consistently similar preferences, and enabling the analysis of the characteristics of those groups.