基于LMDI分解的厦门市碳排放强度影响因素分析

研究碳排放强度的变化趋势及其影响因素对于指导低碳城市建设具有重要意义。应用对数平均权重分解法(LMDI),基于厦门市2005—2010年各部门终端消费数据对碳排放强度指标进行因素分解,并将传统分析仅注重产业部门的能源碳排放,拓展到全面考虑产业部门和家庭消费的能源活动和非能源活动影响。研究结果表明:2005—2010年厦门市碳排放强度下降17.29%,其中产业部门能源强度对总碳排放强度变化影响最大(贡献63.07%),家庭消费能源强度是碳排放强度下降的主要抑制因素(-45.46%)。从影响效应角度看,经济效率对碳排放强度下降贡献最大,碳排系数减排贡献最小;从部门减排贡献角度看,第二产业贡献最大,家庭消费贡献最小。总体而言,厦门市未来碳减排重点部门在第二产业,优化产业结构和能源结构有较大减排潜力。

Factor decomposition of carbon intensity in Xiamen City based on LMDI method

It is of great significance for guiding the low-carbon city development to explore the trends and influencing factors of carbon intensity. Most traditional decomposition studies only focused on the energy carbon emissions from industrial sectors. This paper extended the application of the Logarithmic Mean weight Divisia Index (LMDI) method to a full consideration of the industrial and household sectors, as well as their energy and non-energy activities. Taking Xiamen City as a study case, the carbon emissions was calculated by IPCC's methods based on the end-use consumption data of the industrial and household sectors from 2005 to 2010. Then the aggregated carbon intensity was decomposed by LMDI method into ten driving factors, which covering energy and non-energy related emissions from industrial and household sectors. The ten driving factors were further categorized into four groups: carbon emission efficiency effect (including efficiency factors of energy related industrial carbon emissions, energy related household carbon emission, non-energy related industrial carbon intensity, and non-energy related household carbon intensity), energy intensity effect (including industrial energy intensity factor and that of household), industry structure effect (energy related industrial structure factor and non-energy one) and economic efficiency effect (energy related economic efficiency factor and non-energy one). Results showed that carbon intensity of Xiamen City decreased by 17.29% from 2005 to 2010. From perspective of driving factors, the energy intensity of industrial sector had the greatest effect on carbon intensity reduction (a contribution rate of 63.07%), and the energy intensity of household sector was the largest hinder of carbon intensity reduction (-45.46%). So energy intensity had significant impact on carbon intensity reduction for Xiamen City. Except for reducing the energy intensity of industrial sectors, it is also very important to control the growth of household's energy intensity at the same time. From the effect perspective, the economic efficiency effect became the dominant driver of carbon intensity reduction, followed by energy intensity effect and industry structure effect, and carbon emission efficiency effect contributed the less. The economic efficiency contributed 50.85% of total carbon intensity reduction, which greatly promoted household's carbon intensity reduction. Although industrial structure adjustment had relatively small effects at the study periods, the industry structure in which secondary industry has large proportion is anticipated to have large reduction potentials in the future. The carbon emission efficiency effect was chiefly determined by energy structure, and the current carbon-intensive energy structure also has large reduction potentials. From the sector perspective, the contribution of the secondary industry was the largest (contributing 67.04%), sequentially followed by the primary industry, the tertiary industry, and the household sector. The carbon intensity reduction by secondary and tertiary industries mainly lied in energy related carbon emissions; whereas the carbon intensity reduction by the primary industry and household sectors mainly relied on non-energy emissions. Thus the non-energy related carbon emissions were an non-negligible part while analyzing carbon intensity reduction. Even though energy efficiency of household sector was the biggest disincentive to reduce carbon intensity, household sector had the less contribution on carbon intensity reduction due to other factors' offset effect. Furthermore, the key sector for future carbon reduction lies on the secondary industry. However, the primary Industry and household sector has limited reduction potential. Overall, optimizing industry structure and energy structure have large reduction potential, and secondary industry has largest reduction potentials.