区域综合生态风险评价框架——以雄安新区为例

构建区域生态风险评价框架有助于清晰地识别、评估、模拟、预测与管理区域生态风险，进而为区域生态安全网络构建和生态安全格局保障提供支撑。雄安新区的建设，使该区域面临巨大的土地利用变化，对区域生态系统的结构和功能产生不可忽视的影响，洪涝和干旱灾害对雄安新区及其周边区域生态系统具有显著的威胁。以雄安新区为例，构建包含暴露-响应关系、人为源和自然源相结合的区域综合生态风险评价框架，分别对城市化和气候变化背景下的雄安新区土地利用变化、洪涝灾害、干旱灾害三类胁迫引起的区域生态风险进行了评价和预测，确定其生态风险空间分布特征及变化趋势。结果表明：(1)从时间序列上来看，由于气候变化导致洪涝、干旱等自然灾害的影响，加上雄安新区的土地利用变化，雄安新区的生态风险在2025年后有所上升，但有序的规划和良好的地类配置使得雄安新区起步区在2025年后生态风险程度下降；(2)从空间上看，雄安新区风险高值区主要集中在白洋淀区以西和以南，以及新区东北部部分区域。最后，从土地利用管理、洪涝和干旱灾害预防等角度提出了生态风险防控对策：(1)雄安新区应坚持对土地利用的合理规划和严格管理，切实防止土地的无序利用，密切关注景观...

A regional ecological risk assessment framework: case study of Xiong'an New Area

Building a regional ecological risk assessment framework helps to clearly identify, evaluate, simulate, predict and manage regional ecological risks, and then provide support for the construction of regional ecological security networks and the protection of ecological security patterns. The construction of Xiong''an New Area has caused the area to face huge land use changes, which has a non-negligible impact on the structure and function of the regional ecosystem. Floods and droughts have a significant threat to the ecological system of Xiong''an New Area and its surrounding areas. Taking Xiong''an New Area as an example, a regional comprehensive ecological risk assessment framework including exposure-response relationship, anthropogenic and natural sources is constructed, and the land use change, flood disaster, drought in Xiong''an New Area under the background of urbanization and climate change respectively The regional ecological risks caused by the three types of disaster stresses were evaluated and predicted, and the spatial distribution characteristics and changing trends of the ecological risks were determined. The results show that:(1) From the perspective of time series, due to the impact of natural disasters such as floods and droughts caused by climate change, coupled with land use changes in Xiong''an New Area, the ecological risk of Xiong''an New Area will increase after 2025, but orderly planning and good land allocation will reduce the ecological risk level of the starting area of Xiong''an New Area after 2025; (2) From a spatial perspective, the high-risk areas of Xiong''an New Area are mainly concentrated in the west and south of Baiyangdian Lake, and some areas in the northeast of the new area. Finally, ecological risk prevention and control countermeasures are put forward from the perspectives of land use management, flood and drought disaster prevention:(1) Xiong''an New Area should adhere to reasonable planning and strict management of land use, effectively prevent disorderly use of land, and pay close attention to land use change trends in areas with a high degree of landscape ecological risk and carry out land consolidation when necessary; (2) Xiong''an New Area should focus on the ecological risks caused by conventional floods in the future, strengthen the Xin''an North Embankment, build a safe area for flood disasters in the starting area, and make full use of the wetland to realize the functions of flood storage and drainage; (3) Xiong''an New Area should focus on the prevention and control of drought disaster ecological risks in the northern area, and at the same time try to ensure the water level of Baiyangdian Lake and surrounding rivers to maintain the health of the wetland ecosystem.