基于改进生态足迹模型的可持续发展评价——以北疆为例

生态足迹评价体系，可以在一定程度上刻画区域社会经济发展对当地生态环境产生的影响，当前可持续发展研究的难点之一，便是如何更加真实的体现这种影响。立足于传统生态足迹模型，采用“一年一区一值”的参数方案计算区域当年均衡因子与产量因子，结合土地利用转移矩阵和建设用地流入量改进建设用地足迹算法，对北疆地区2005年、2010年、2015年、2018年生态足迹及生态承载力进行测度，并结合相关指数对研究区发展的可持续性进行评价。结果表明：(1)北疆生态足迹增涨3.5倍，且以能源增长为主导，生物生产性足迹贡献率大幅下降；人均生态足迹增长3.4倍，工业型城市生态足迹增长率及人均生态足迹增长率均高于其他类型城市。(2)研究区生态承载力呈现上升态势，除水域和草地外，其他地类承载力均呈上升态势，昌吉州与阿勒泰地区的总体承载力及人均承载力均呈下降态势。(3)北疆生态利用效率上涨1.32倍，各行政单元呈现农业及服务业型城市生态利用效率上升、工业型城市生态利用效率降低的态势，表明工业型城市生态足迹增速远高于经济增速。(4)各行政单元呈现生态赤字状态且不断加剧，总体及人均增速都呈现工业型>农业型>服务业型...

Sustainable development evaluation based on an improved ecological footprint model: a case study of northern Xinjiang

Ecological footprint is a biologically productive land that can produce the materials needed to meet the productive needs of human life and absorb the waste generated by humans in the region. Ecological footprint evaluation system can describe the impact of regional social and economic development on local ecological environment to a certain extent, but one of the difficulties in current sustainable development research is how to more truly reflect such impact. Based on traditionally ecological footprint model, this study firstly calculates the equilibrium factor and yield factor by year and by subregion. We improved the construction land footprint algorithm through combining the land use transfer matrix. Finally measured the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Northern Xinjiang in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2018, and evaluated the sustainability of development in the study area. The results showed that:(1) the ecological footprint of the Northern Xinjiang increased by 3.5 times, which was dominated by energy footprint, while the contribution of biological productivity footprint decreased significantly. Per capita ecological footprint increased by 3.4 times, and the growth rate of ecological footprint and per capita ecological footprint of industrial cities were both higher than other types of cities. (2) The ecological carrying capacity of the study area showed an upward trend except for water and grassland. The overall and per capita carrying capacity of Changji and Altay were both declining. (3) The ecological efficiency of Northern Xinjiang increased by 1.32 times. The units showed a trend of increasing ecological efficiency in agricultural and service-oriented cities and decreasing in industrial cities, indicated that the growth rate of ecological footprint of industrial cities was higher than the corresponding cities'' economy. (4) The ecological deficit of each unit was increased, and the growth rate of overall and per capita showed a trend of industrial cities > agricultural cities > service-oriented cities. Overall, ecosystem security in the study area was at an average level, and the ecological system and economic system were in a coupling state. But there was a risk of security decline caused by the surge of ecological footprint. Some cities were in a low coupling or even decoupling state, and the overall sustainability was reduced. Therefore, in the future development process, government should combine national and regional policy guidance with our own geographic and resource advantages, actively optimize the industrial structure, improve the efficiency of resource utilization, to build a diversified, healthy and sustainable new development system.