中国增汇型气候保护政策实施对经济的影响

系统地给出了中国实施增汇型CO2减排政策对宏观经济影响的模拟结果,所采用的模拟系统包括基于Pizer,Demeter,Zwaan工作发展的中国气候保护决策支持系统和中国经济可计算一般均衡(CGE)系统。研究结果表明,增汇型气候保护政策较其他单一的气候保护政策更有利于国家经济安全;虽然增汇型气候保护政策在短期内会对国家GDP产出造成影响,但从长远角度看,增汇型气候保护将带动经济的发展,是一项值得推广的减排政策。同时,发现中国实行每年增加4%的碳汇和实施4%能源替代以减少CO2排放控制率,辅助于0.2%的生产型CO2排放控制率,如果能够促进世界其它地区到2050年减排1990年的10%的CO,是一个合适的方案。

Effects of the implementation of climate policy by increasing carbon sinks on China's economy

This paper simulates the effects of the implementation of climate policy by increasing carbon sinks on China's economy.Two macro model systems were adopted,which are the decision support system of climate protection in China and the Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) model of Chinese economy.The first scheme is a macroeconomic model combined with the dynamic of climate system and also the model of endogenous technology change.The second framework integrates the component of climate protection into the CGE model capable of modelling the interactivity of China's 17 economic sectors.Results from the first model system showed that the policy of increasing carbon sinks was favourable in terms of maintaining the national economic stability,compared with other climate protection policies such as the approaches of alternative energy and controlling the level of production.Although the climate protection policy by expanding carbon sinks would negatively affect economic growth in the short run,the policy approach would enhance the energy of China's economy in the long term.This paper suggests that increasing carbon sinks should be a recommendable policy.The result from the second model indicated that the policy of increasing carbon sinks would make negative influence on GDP growth but households would have more comfortable living conditions.The CGE framework also points out some notable influence of this climate protection policy.