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夏干萨特树轮年表中降水信息的探讨与326年降水重建
引用本文:袁玉江,邵雪梅,李江风,李新建,唐凤兰.夏干萨特树轮年表中降水信息的探讨与326年降水重建[J].生态学报,2002,22(12):2048-2053.
作者姓名:袁玉江  邵雪梅  李江风  李新建  唐凤兰
作者单位:1. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,乌鲁木齐,830002
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101
基金项目:中国科学院创新工程资助项目 (kzcx2 -3 1 4),国家自然科学基金资助项目 (4 0 2 65 0 0 2 ),国家重大基础研究资助项目 (1 9990 43 5 0 2 ),新疆科委课题资助项目 (980 1 0 3 0 0 2)
摘    要:夏干萨特位于新疆天山中段乌鲁木齐河山区,在此干旱,半干旱地区的森林下限所采集的天山云杉(Picca schrenkinna var.tianschanica)树轮样本建立的树轮宽度年表具有最大的平均敏感度和最大的标准关蓄意助记词件表可能含有最多的降水信息,利用相关分析的方法计算了年轮宽度指数和气候要素间的相关关系,发现5月份的降水与年表的相关最好,进一步计算了旬降水量与年表的相关关系,发现5月下旬的降水与年表的单相关系灵敏最高,5月下旬的降水是森林下限云杉生长的主要限制因子,这一结果具有明确的树木生理学意义,云杉直径生长主要在5-8月份,其中5-6月份形成大约一半的年轮,5月下旬位于年轮形成关键时段的中部,为轮宽形成的最活跃期,同时5月下旬降水的大变率与夏干萨特年表的高敏感度相一致,从另一角度说明了5月下旬降水作为森林下限天山云杉生长关键限制因子的适当性,重建了大西沟气象站5月下旬326a的降水并分析了其长期变化特征,发现320多年来的5月下旬降水分为8个完整的干湿变化阶段,其中最干期出现在1701-1722年,最湿期出现在1961-1981年,降水序列具有显著的64,32,22,14,5和11a变化周期,其中的22a及11a周期与太阳黑子的活动周期相一致,利用方差分析方法进行了未来干湿变化趋势的预测,发现2001-2007年以降水偏少为主,而2008-2015年以偏多为主,这对于北疆重要粮食作物冬小麦的长期产量预报及种植规划具有重要意义。

关 键 词:夏干萨特  树轮年表  降水信息  降水重建  新疆  历史气候  森林下限  天山云杉
文章编号:1000-0933(2002)12-2048-06
收稿时间:2001/6/24 0:00:00
修稿时间:2002/8/18 0:00:00

Discussion of Precipitation Information in Xiagansate Tree-ring Chronology and 326 Year Precipitation Reconstruction
YUAN Yujiang,SHAO Xuemei,LI Jiangfeng,LI Jianxin and TANG Fenglan.Discussion of Precipitation Information in Xiagansate Tree-ring Chronology and 326 Year Precipitation Reconstruction[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2002,22(12):2048-2053.
Authors:YUAN Yujiang  SHAO Xuemei  LI Jiangfeng  LI Jianxin and TANG Fenglan
Institution:Urumqi Institute of Desert and Meteorology; CMA; Urumqi; China;
Abstract:Xiagansate is located in the lower tree line of the mountainous area of the Urumqi River in the middle of Tianshan Mountain. Tree ring samples of spruce ( Picca schrenkinna var. tianschanica ) was collected from the lower forest zone. The ring width chronology of Xiagansate shows high mean sensitivity and high standard deviation which implied that it may contain much information of precipitation in such a semiarid region. The relationship between tree ring chronology and climatic factors was studied by correlation analysis. The ring width chronology shows the best relationship with the precipitation of May. Further study shows that the precipitation of the last ten day of May has the best relationship with the chronology. The result has distinct physiological significance. The radial growth of spruce was mainly occurred from May to August, and half of the ring width may be formed from May to June. The last ten day of May is the key period of radial growth and also the most active period. The precipitation of the last ten day of May has high deviation also correspond with the high mean sensitivity of the ring width chronology, which indicates the propriety of the relationship. The 326 years' precipitation of the last ten day of May was reconstructed from the ring width chronology and the low frequency variations of the reconstructed series was analyzed. There were 8 fully dry wet periods in the past 326 years, the driest period occurred from 1701 to 1722 and the wettest period occurred from 1961 to 1981. The frequency study shows that the reconstructed series has 64a, 32a, 22a, 14a, 5a and 11a cycles, some of which have relations with the solar activity such as the 11a sunspot cycle and the 22a Hale cycle. The method of variation analysis was used to predict the dry wet conditions of future years. The prediction will be very helpful for the yield predict and the planning of cropping system of winter wheat in North Xinjiang.
Keywords:mountainous area of Urumqi river  lower tree  line  Tianshan mountain spruce  tree  ring chronology  precipitation for the last ten  day of May
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