昆虫种群动态模拟方法的一点改进──三化螟种群动态模拟模型的研究

以Ｒｕｅｓｉｎｋ（１９７６）的模型为基础，根据昆虫个体一般不同步地进入下一发育阶段的状况，当昆虫各虫态发育到完成该虫态发育所需要的最低年龄级数后，假定各年龄级的昆虫种群均以一定的概率分布函数值进入下一个发育阶段，同时根据有效积温向前推进。据此，对昆虫种群动态模拟方法作了一点改进。该方法综合了已有的种群模型的优点，因而较Ｒｕｅｓｉｎｋ（１９７６）和ＣｈｉＨｓｉｎ等（１９８５）提出的方法更真实地反映了昆虫种群动态的变化规律。根据三化螟自然种群生命表的资料，分析和确定逐日存活率、逐日发育率和逐日生殖率，对三化螟种群进行逐日动态模拟和预测，同时引入环境因素对种群的控制作用，研究不同环境条件下的种群动态，经验证，模型基本能够反映田间三化螟的发生规律。

IMPROVEMENT IN THE METHOD FOR SIMULATING THE DYNAMICS OF INSECT POPULATION:A STUDY ON THE DYNAMIC POPULATION SIMULATION MODEL OF PADDY STEM BORER(TRYPORYZA INCERTULAS WALKER)

ome improvement has been made in the method for simulating the dynamics of insectpopulation based on the Ruesink's model(1976),in view of the fact that insect individuals ingeneral don't grow simultaneously from a developmental stage into next one and as the insectindividuals in a developmental stage have grown up to the minimum age class necessary tofinish the stage, they would grow into next developmental stage by following a probabilitydistribution function and then would be carried forward simultaneously depending on the ef-fective thermal summation. The improved method has taken the advantages of the availablepopulation models into its account and thus reallier reflected the dynamics of insect popula-tion than the methods given by Ruesink(1976)and Chi Hsin et al(1985).The daily dynamicsof paddy stem borer(Tryporyza incertulas Walker )population were also simulated andpredicted with this improved method,based on the data of its natural population life-table,and the analysis and determination of its daily survival,daily growth and daily fecundity.Thedynamics of population under different environmental conditions were also studied by takinginto account the control effect of environmental factors on the population. It was thus demon-strated that the model could basically reflected the regularity of paddy stem borer breakingout in field.