中美减排二氧化碳的GDP溢出模拟

基于气候保护模型(State-contingent模型与Demeter模型)和GDP溢出模型(Mundell-Fleming模型),对中美两国在实施控制性气候保护措施之后所导致的GDP溢出影响的变化进行了模拟分析。结果表明,美国实行控制性减排政策对于中国的GDP溢出影响与不实施任何减排的情况相比,两者的差别并不明显,但是这种影响经历一个从负向到正向逐步上升的发展趋势,虽然中国实行控制性减排政策对于美国GDP溢出的影响,相比美国对于中国的影响,所导致的GDP溢出影响更小,但是也同样表现出了一个从负溢出到正溢出的过程。这一结果表明一国的控制性气候保护政策从长远来看会对另一国的经济发展产生正向的溢出。同时,针对两种情况,即不考虑他国GDP溢出影响和考虑他国GDP溢出影响,分别模拟计算了中美两国的GDP,进而对两种情况下的差额结果进行对比,分析了中美相互之间GDP溢出量的大小。结果发现,美国对中国GDP溢出影响要大于中国对美国的GDP溢出。

An analysis of the GDP spillover effects of carbon abatement between China and the United States

This paper supplements the literature about the effects of reducing carbon dioxide emission in an attempt to simulate the international GDP spillovers as a result of climate protection policy.A simulating system,which is intended to model domestic effects of mitigating carbon emissions as well as international effects represented by GDP spillovers,is constructed in this paper.The model system is based on three well-known models,State-contingent model,Demeter model,and Mundell-Fleming.The noticeable contribution of this paper lies in the integration of climate-economy model and the international GDP spillover model.Thus,it is possible to realize the analysis of international GDP spillovers caused by the anticipated climate protection actions from different countries.The United States and China,the two countries with the most carbon emissions in the present world,are taken as examples to implement the model.Six scenarios of countermeasure for global warming in two countries are set up to identify the effects of different actions.Whether or not to reduce carbon emission and also the different level of carbon reduction are included in these scenarios.The results show that the effects of American policy of reducing carbon emission on China's GDP are more considerable than the effect of China's policy on American GDP.These two effects both go through a process from the negative sign to the positive sign.The policy implication of the research is that the China's GDP growth could take the advantage of American climate protection policy in the long term.