不同发展模式对城市生态系统调节服务价值的影响

快速城市化加快了城市生态系统格局的改变，导致生态系统服务价值下降，对城市可持续发展造成阻碍。为了探究何种城市发展模式能够创造更高的生态系统服务价值，以深圳为案例，利用2010年、2015年和2020年生态系统类型数据，设置经济、惯性和生态3种不同的发展模式，并使用CA-Markov模型对2025年深圳市各类生态系统变化进行预测。在此基础上创新性地核算了不同模式下的关键生态系统服务价值。结果显示：（1）2015年到2020年，各类生态系统呈现不同变化趋势，人类聚落生态系统快速增长，对各类自然生态系统造成侵占，城区绿地呈现自然减少人工增加趋势。（2）2025年3种发展模式对生态系统类型变化影响显著，惯性发展模式下人类聚落、城区绿地出现扩张，经济发展模式下进一步增长，自然生态系统面积显著减少，生态发展模式下自然生态系统面积得到恢复。（3）3种模式下的生态系统服务价值变化差异显著，惯性和经济发展模式下，生态系统服务价值显著下降，分别较2020年下降2.67%和5.25%。生态发展模式下，生态系统服务价值提高，较经济发展模式提升5.5%，3种模式生态系统调节服务总价值差最高达到38.1亿元。综合来看，未来的发展模式应当选择以生态保护为优先的发展模式，通过制定有效的生态空间保护措施如生态保护红线划定、城市潜在开发区调整，实施生态工程等提高城市生态空间面积和质量，维持和提高生态系统服务价值，实现经济发展与生态保护的协调并行。

Impact of different development patterns on the value of regulating services of urban ecosystems

Rapid urbanization has accelerated changes in urban ecosystem patterns, leading to a decline in the value of ecosystem services and posing an obstacle to sustainable urban development. To explore which urban development patterns create higher ecosystem service values, Shenzhen is used as a case study to set up three different development patterns-economic, inertial and ecological, using data on ecosystem types in 2010, 2015 and 2020, and to predict changes in various ecosystems in Shenzhen in 2025 using the CA-Markov model. On this basis innovative accounting of the value of key ecosystem services under different models was carried out and compared. The results show that:(1) From 2015 to 2020, all kinds of ecosystems show different change trends. Human settlement ecosystems grow rapidly, causing occupation of all kinds of natural ecosystems. Forest and farmland ecosystems decreased significantly. Urban green space shows an increasing trend, which is mainly reflected in natural reduction and artificial increase. (2) In 2025, the three development modes will have a significant impact on the changes of ecosystem types. Under the inertial development mode, human settlements, urban green space and wetland ecosystem will expand compared with 2020. Under the economic development mode, human settlements and farmland will further increase, the area of natural ecosystem will be significantly reduced, while the area of natural ecosystem under the ecological development mode will be restored. (3) The changes in the value of ecosystem services under the three modes differ significantly. Under the inertial development mode and the economic development mode, the value of ecosystem services decreases significantly due to the reduction in the area of natural ecosystems and the lowering of ecosystem quality, resulting in a decrease of 2.67% and 5.25% respectively compared to 2020. However, under the ecological development mode, the area of natural ecosystems is restored and the quality of ecosystems is improved. The value of ecosystem services increased by 5.5% compared to the economic development model. The difference in the total value of ecosystem regulation services between the three models reached a maximum of 3.81 billion RMB. In a comprehensive view, the future development model should give priority to the development model that prioritizes ecological protection, and improve the area and quality of urban ecological space through the formulation of effective ecological space protection measures such as the delineation of ecological protection red lines, the adjustment of potential urban development zones, and the implementation of ecological projects, maintain and improve the value of ecosystem services, and achieve a harmonious parallel between economic development and ecological protection.