自然保护地生态承载力时空分异研究——以大连金石滩为例

监测自然保护地生态承载力，对了解其时空分异规律及可持续发展有着重要意义。金石滩地质遗迹保护区是国家公园和风景名胜区的结合区域，是生态保护与地区发展间矛盾冲突所在之处，是多身份自然保护地的典型代表区域。以1998、2003、2007、2012、2015、2018年遥感影像和土地利用数据为基础，选取金石滩这个兼具保护与开发多种功能的自然保护地为研究区域，从弹性生态支撑系统、资源环境供容系统、社会经济协调系统3方面构建指标体系，运用模糊综合评价模型研究金石滩生态承载力的时空分异规律。结果表明：（1）在3个准则层中，弹性生态支撑力和资源环境供容力呈现出持续降低的剧烈下降趋势，社会经济协调力呈现先降后升、之后平稳发展的趋势。（2）金石滩生态承载力整体来看从强承载力演变为较弱承载力，1998-2018年自0.7572变为0.2940，近30年来承载力等级降低。（3）海陆生态承载力完全不同，陆地为强、较强承载力，海岸为弱、较弱承载力，自北部陆地向南部海岸逐渐减弱呈现极其不平衡的海陆空间分异。通过对金石滩1998-2018年生态承载力分析，能够反映区域的生态承载力变化情况，可为其他自然保护地的生态承载力评估和可持续发展提供参考。

Spatio-temporal differentiation of ecological carrying capacity of the protected area: A case study of Jinshitan in Dalian

Monitoring the ecological carrying capacity of nature reserves is of great significance to understand its spatio-temporal differentiation and sustainable development. Jinshitan Geoheritage Reserve is a combination area of national park and scenic spot. It is a place where contradictions and conflicts exist between ecological protection and regional development. It is also a typical representative area of multi-status nature reserves. Based on the remote sensing data and the land use data of 1998, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2015, and 2018, this paper selects Jinshitan, a nature reserve with multiple functions of protection and development, as the research area. An evaluation system of ecological carrying capacity is constructed from three aspects:elastic ecological support, resource and environment capacity, and socio-economic coordination. We evaluate the spatial and temporal difference of the ecological carrying capacity of Jinshitan by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The results show that:(1) in the three criteria layers, the elastic ecological support force and the capacity of resources and environment show a sharp downward trend, while the social and economic coordination force shows a trend of decreasing first, then increasing, and developing steadily. (2) The ecological carrying capacity of Jinshitan has changed from high to low. From 0.7572 to 0.2940 from 1998 to 2018, the carrying capacity level has decreased in recent 30 years. (3) The ecological carrying capacity of sea and land is totally different, the land is high, and the coast is low. The coastal area is gradually weakened from the north land to the south coast, showing extremely unbalanced spatial differentiation of sea and land. Through the analysis of ecological carrying capacity of Jinshitan from 1998 to 2018, it can reflect the changes in the ecological carrying capacity of the region, provide reference for the ecological carrying capacity assessment and sustainable development of other nature reserves.