基于水足迹的山东省农业水土资源匹配特征及短缺压力分析

高强度农业开发引起的农业水土资源生态问题日益增多，探究粮食及蔬菜（粮蔬）生产中水土资源空间配置及短缺压力对农业资源的可持续利用具有重要意义。从水足迹视角出发，分析了山东省3种主要粮食作物（冬小麦、玉米及大豆）和两种不同种植模式蔬菜（设施蔬菜和露地蔬菜）的生产水足迹空间特征；同时将资源数量及资源质量的概念纳入研究框架，分析了农业水土资源数量及质量匹配格局差异，并进一步探究了农业水土资源短缺压力及其影响因素。研究结果表明：（1）2019年，山东省粮食和蔬菜的生产总水足迹为811亿m³，其中粮食生产总水足迹占比78.50%，蔬菜生产总水足迹占比21.50%；粮蔬生产水足迹受地势影响明显，鲁西北及鲁西南平原地区的粮蔬生产水足迹占比较大。（2）考虑资源数量的水土资源匹配系数均值为0.622×10⁴ m³/hm²，考虑资源质量的匹配系数均值为0.416×10⁴ m³/hm²；水土资源数量及质量匹配系数在空间上呈现出一致性，表明山东省农业生产水土资源空间配置水平高的地区同时面临着较大的农业面源污染压力。（3）整体上，土地资源短缺压力略高于水资源短缺压力；基于生产视角的水土资源短缺压力受生产环境因素制约显著，受经济发展因素的影响具有差异性，社会因素对水土资源短缺压力无显著影响。研究可为农业资源可持续管理提供数据基础，为全面理解粮蔬生产所产生的水土资源短缺提供案例参考。

Analysis of matching characteristics and scarcity of agricultural water and land resources in Shandong Province based on water footprint

The ecological problems of agricultural water and land resources caused by high-intensity agricultural development have been gradually increasing worldwide, such as the excessive exploitation of shallow groundwater, the shortage of cultivated land resources and the intensification of non-point source pollution. It is of great significance to explore the spatial allocation and shortage pressure of water and land resources in grain and vegetable production for sustainable utilization of the agricultural resources. In this paper, Shandong Province, a typical major grain-producing region and vegetable production base in China, was selected as the case study to explore the spatial allocation and scarcity of water and land resources in crop production (including grains and vegetables). The results will also play an important role of demonstration and reference for the sustainable utilization and management of water and land resources in other provinces. The spatial characteristics of water footprint of three main grain crops (winter wheat, corn and soybean) and vegetables with two different planting patterns (protected vegetables and open field vegetables) firstly were analyzed. Then the concept of resource quantity and resource quality was introduced to analyze the matching pattern differences of quantity and quality of agricultural water and land resources. Finally, the scarcity of agricultural water and land resources and its influencing factors were further explored. The results showed that:(1) the water footprint of grains and vegetables differed greatly, and soybean had the highest water footprint, followed by wheat and corn. The water footprint of vegetable was much smaller than that of grains, and the water footprint of open field vegetables was higher than that of protected vegetables. In 2019, the total water footprint of grain and vegetable production in Shandong Province was 81.1 billion m³, of which water footprint of grain production accounted for 78.50%, vegetable production accounted for 21.50%. The water footprint of grain and vegetable production was obviously affected by topography, and the water footprint was larger in northwest and southwest Shandong. (2) The mean matching coefficient of water and land resources considering resources quantity was 0.622×10⁴ m³/hm², and the mean matching coefficient considering the resources quality was 0.416×10⁴ m³/hm². The matching coefficient of quantity and quality of water and land resources was consistent in space, which indicated that the areas with high spatial allocation level of water and land resources in agricultural production were also facing greater agricultural non-point source pollution pressure. (3) The spatial distribution of water resource and land resource shortage pressure showed homogeneity as a whole; the scarcity of land resource was higher than that of water resource. Based on the perspective of production, the scarcity of water and land resources was significantly restricted by environmental factors, and differently affected by economic development factors, while social factors had no significant impact on the scarcity. In the future, the adjustment of planting structure will promote the coordinated optimization of the matching degree of quantity and quality of water and land resources, and promote the optimal allocation of water and land resources. This study can provide data basis for sustainable management of agricultural resources and provide case reference for comprehensive understanding of scarcity of water and land resource caused by crop production.