滇池流域水文生态系统服务权衡与协同时空异质性及其归因分析

城市化扩张影响流域水文生态系统服务供给，导致水文生态环境压力增加。明晰滇池流域水文生态系统服务权衡与协同关系及归因，对于滇池流域社会经济发展与生态可持续管理的双赢具有重要意义。基于InVEST模型估算了滇池流域2000、2010、2018年碳存储、氮输出、土壤保持和产水量4种水文生态系统服务，分析了水文生态系统服务时空格局变化，利用双变量Moran′s I指数分析了滇池流域水文生态系统服务间时空异质性，通过冗余分析和条件效应分析等方法识别水文生态系统服务归因。结果表明：(1)水文生态系统服务的高值分布与土地利用覆盖有密切关系。(2)水文生态系统服务空间变化主要体现在滇池周边人类活动干扰强烈的区域，表现为氮输出、土壤保持和产水量增加，碳存储减小。(3)水文生态系统服务权衡与协同关系变化明显。碳存储和土壤保持为协同；氮输出和产水量先呈协同后呈权衡；产水量、氮输出均与碳存储和土壤保持为权衡，前者空间变化不明显，后者协同范围扩大，权衡范围缩小。(4)水文生态系统服务主要受多个因素共同影响，主要包括：高程、耕地比例、林地比例、建设用地比例。研究结果可为研究区水文生态系统环境治理和土地利用优化配置...

Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and attribution analysis of hydrological ecosystem services tradeoffs and synergies in Dianchi Lake Basin

Urbanization expansion affects the supply of hydrological ecosystem services in the basin, which leads to the increase of hydrologically ecological environment pressure. It is of great significance to clarify tradeoffs and synergies relationship and attribution of hydrological ecosystem services for the win-win of socio-economic development and ecological sustainable management in the Dianchi Lake Basin. Based on the InVEST model, this paper estimated four key hydrological ecosystem services:carbon storage, nitrogen output, soil rendition and water yield in the Dianchi Lake Basin in 2000, 2010, and 2018, and analyzed the changes in the temporal and spatial patterns of hydrological ecosystem services. The spatio-temporal heterogeneity between hydrological ecosystem services in the Dianchi Lake Basin was analyzed by bivariate Moran''s I index, and the attribution of hydrological ecosystem services was identified by redundancy analysis and conditional effect analysis. The results showed that:(1) the high value distribution of hydrological ecosystem services was closely related to land use cover. (2) The spatial change in hydrological ecosystem services were mainly reflected in the areas with strong disturbance of human activities around Dianchi Lake, showing a trend of increasing nitrogen export, soil conservation and water yield, and decreasing carbon storage. (3) The trade-offs and synergies of hydrological ecosystem services changed significantly. Carbon storage and soil conservation were synergistic; nitrogen export and water yield were synergistic at first and then trade-off; both water yield and nitrogen export were trade-offs with carbon storage and soil conservation. The former had no obviously spatial change, while the latter expanded synergy and narrowed trade-off range. (4) The hydrological ecosystem services were mainly affected by multiple factors, including DEM, proportion of cultivated land, proportion of forest land, and proportion of construction land. The research results can provide scientific basis and decision support for the environmental governance of the hydrological ecosystem and the optimal allocation of land use in the study area.