1998年以来长江经济带旅游生态安全时空格局演化及趋势预测

旅游生态安全是旅游业可持续发展的基础。基于DPSIR(驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应,Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response)模型,构建长江经济带旅游生态安全评价指标体系,综合采用熵权TOPSIS(逼近理想解排序法,Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)法、空间变差模型、标准差椭圆模型、灰色动态模型等方法分析长江经济带1998—2017年旅游生态安全水平的时空动态演变特征,并对其未来空间分布格局进行合理预测。研究发现:(1)长江经济带旅游生态安全水平均值为0.305,综合指数由0.207上升至0.439,呈稳步提升态势,安全状态由较不安全级上升至临界安全级;(2)经济带旅游生态安全为不安全级和较不安全级的省区数量逐渐减少,而处于临界安全级的省区数量持续增加,整体正介于由中低级向高级过渡的关键阶段;(3)旅游生态安全空间变异程度不断增强,空间分异特征显著,整体呈现出"东部>西部>中部"的空间演变格局,同时低值区域具有明显的西南迁移现象;(4)旅游生态安全空间分布格局呈东北-西南走向,移动路径呈"西北→东北→东南"变化趋势,空间分布范围经历了"分散-集聚"的过程。预测结果显示:2018—2030年旅游生态安全重心将向东北方向移动,空间分布格局在东西和南北方向上均呈敛缩态势,空间溢出效应不明显。

Spatio-temporal pattern evolution and trend prediction of tourism ecological security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt since 1998

Tourism ecological security is the basis of sustainable development of tourism.Based on Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response(DPSIR)model,an evaluation index system for tourism ecological security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is constructed.Meanwhile,a combination of entropy weight TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)method,spatial variation model,standard deviation ellipse model,grey dynamic model and other methods is adopted to analyze and characterize the spatio-temporal dynamics of security level for tourism ecology along the Yangtze River Economic Belt during the period between 1998 and 2017,further with which a sensible prediction is made for its future pattern of spatial distribution.The results are as follows:(1)The average level of tourism ecological security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is 0.305,with the comprehensive indicator increases from 0.207 to 0.439 in a status of stable improving.The security level raises from less safety grade to critical safety grade.(2)The number of provinces with unsafe grade and less safe grade for tourism ecological security gradually decreases while that with critical safety grade increases.Overall,it is at the critical stage of transition from middle and low level to high level.(3)The spatial variation degree of tourism ecological security keeps increasing with prominently spatial difference features.The overall spatial evolution pattern appears eastern>western>central tendency.At the same time,the low value area obviously migrates to the southwest.(4)The spatial distribution of tourism ecological security indicates northeast-southwest tendency,while the trajectory of gravity center presents the variational tendency of northwest→northeast→southeast.Spatial distribution range is distributed first and then gathered.The prediction results show that the gravity center of tourism ecological security will move to the northeast while the spatial distribution range will shrink in the east-west and north-south directions in 2018—2030.Therefore,the spatial spillover effect is not obvious.