2030年闽三角城市群土地利用变化对生态系统水源涵养服务的影响

生态系统水源涵养服务作为水资源得以持续的基础和保障，正持续遭受着人类活动的干扰和影响，土地利用变化作为主要的方式之一，对水源涵养的影响广泛而且深远。运用InVEST模型模拟了闽三角城市群2015年和2030年的水源涵养情景，发现到2030年闽三角城市群区域内水源涵养量总体会下降0.24×10⁸ m³；对比发现：土地利用变化对水源涵养的影响主要主要表现在变化面积、变化方向、作用强度以及面积补偿作用四个方面。首先面积变化方面，水源涵养量同用地类型的面积大小正相关，但二者的变化量并不正相关；其次变化方向方面，相比变化为城市生态系统和水域生态系统而言，变化为自然生态系统和农业生态系统的土地利用变化更有利于生态系统水源涵养；再次，土地利用变化对水源涵养产生作用的强度由强及弱以此为林地、其他土地、草地、农田、建设用地、水域及滩涂；最后，面积变化后的补偿作用方面，由于不同用地类型水源涵养能力和面积变化量的差异，由农田、林地、草地及其他土地面积下降导致的水源涵养量损失并不能通过建设用地、水域及滩涂用地类型面积的增加得以完全补偿。

Impact of land use change on the water conservation service of ecosystems in the urban agglomeration of the Golden Triangle of Southern Fujian, China, in 2030

The water conservation service of an ecosystem is the basis and a guarantee for the sustainable development of water resources. It is continually affected by the disturbance and influence of human activities. Land use change caused by humans is one of the main influencing factors and has substantial and enduring impacts on the water conservation service of an ecosystem. In this study, the InVEST model was used to simulate water conservation scenarios for the urban agglomeration of the Golden Triangle in Southern Fujian, China, for 2015 and 2030. The results showed that the amount of water conservation in the urban agglomeration of the Golden Triangle in Southern Fujian would decline by 0.24×10⁸ m³ by 2030. The comparison shows that the effect of land use change on water conservation are mainly manifested in the following four aspects:changed area, changing direction, the intensity and the compensatory effect. Firstly with regards to changed area, the amount of water conservation and the size of the area of land use had changed were positively correlated, but the variance in the amount of water conservation and the area of land use change were not positively correlated. Secondly, with regards to changing direction, the natural ecosystem and the agricultural ecosystem were more conducive to water conservation than the urban ecosystem and the water ecosystem. Thirdly, the degree of impact that land use change had on water conservation is ordered from strong to weak, the order is woodland, other land, grassland, cultivated land, construction land, and water area and tidal flats. Finally, the size of the compensatory effect when area had changed, which is based on the differences in water conservation capacity and area of land subjected to land use change, meant that the decline in water conservation caused by the loss of cultivated land, woodland, grassland and other land could not be fully compensated by the area increase in construction land, water area and tidal flats.