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气候变暖对东北三省春玉米严重低温冷害及种植布局的影响
引用本文:赵俊芳,杨晓光,刘志娟.气候变暖对东北三省春玉米严重低温冷害及种植布局的影响[J].生态学报,2009,29(12):6544-6551.
作者姓名:赵俊芳  杨晓光  刘志娟
作者单位:1. 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081
2. 中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京,100193
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目,国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项资助项目,中国气象局气候变化专项资助项目,国家"十一五"科技支撑计划资助项目,国家科技部基础性科技专项资助项目 
摘    要:以我国对气候变化较为敏感的东北三省为例,利用1961~2007年78个气象站的资料,结合玉米生长季温度距平冷害指标,分析了气候变暖对东北三省春玉米严重低温冷害及种植布局的影响.结果表明:(1)气候变暖背景下,从20世纪60年代到21世纪初,东北三省各地区春玉米严重冷害受害程度总体表现为减少趋势,但由于不同地方温度波动幅度较大,区域性的严重冷害发生频率也随之加大;就平均发生频率空间分布而言,1961~2007年严重冷害的平均发生频率表现为东北部高于西南部,最大值出现在黑龙江北部(38%),最低值在辽宁南部(4%).(2)气候变暖背景下,不同熟性玉米品种可种植界线明显北移东延,早熟品种逐渐被中、晚熟品种取代,中、晚熟品种可种植面积不断扩大.(3)随着不同熟性玉米品种种植区域北移东延,严重低温冷害出现频率明显增加,种植风险也在增大.

关 键 词:气候变暖  东北三省  春玉米  严重低温冷害  种植布局
收稿时间:2009/6/29 0:00:00
修稿时间:2009/9/27 0:00:00

Influence of climate warming on serious low temperature and cold damage and cultivation pattern of spring maize in Northeast China
ZhaoJunFang.Influence of climate warming on serious low temperature and cold damage and cultivation pattern of spring maize in Northeast China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2009,29(12):6544-6551.
Authors:ZhaoJunFang
Abstract:Here we analyzed the influence of climate warming on serious low temperature and cold damage and cultivation patterns of spring maize in the northeast provinces, based on 47a (1961~2007) data from 78 meteorological stations, in combination with temperature anomaly index of maize in growing season. Our results indicated that: (1) from the 1960s to the early 21st century, serious low temperature and cold damage in spring maize growing season decreased gradually. However, the frequencies of serious low temperature and cold damage were still high in some regions, because the fluctuation of air temperature varied from place to place. Average frequencies of serious low temperature and cold damage were higher in the northeast than those of the southwest from 1961 to 2007. The maximum appeared in the northern part of Heilongjiang Province (38%), while the minimum value was found in southern Liaoning Province (4%). (2) The potential cultivation boundaries of several maize varieties extended northward and eastward, likely due to the climatic warming. The early-maturing varieties were gradually replaced by late-maturing varieties, and the potential cultivation areas of late-maturing variety were expanded gradually. (3) However, with the northward and eastward expanding of maize cultivation area, the frequencies of serious cold damage and the agricultural risks were greatly increased.
Keywords:climatic warming  northeast China  spring maize  serious low temperature and cold damage  cultivation pattern
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