海岛城市化过程中的生态安全动态评价与驱动力分析——以平潭岛为例

随着海岛城市化进程的不断加速,海岛的开发建设与生态安全的矛盾日益突出,客观评价平潭岛开发建设中生态状况的动态变化及驱动力分析,对促进平潭岛社会经济与生态环境的协调发展具有重大意义。选取平潭岛2001年作为生态安全状况评价对比基准年份,另选取2005—2015年的自然与社会经济指标数据构建了平潭岛生态安全评价DPSIR评价指标体系。采用综合指数法发现驱动力因子、影响因子在评价年份中动态变化较为平稳;压力因子、状态因子动态变化趋势较为相似,响应因子在2009年设立综合试验区之前动态变化较为平稳,但是2009—2012年波动最为明显。响应因子、压力因子、状态因子对生态安全指数产生重大影响,其中响应因子是关键因子,对生态安全指数有决定性影响。平潭岛的生态安全状态总体呈上升趋势,2001年、2005—2009年生态安全状况总体上较为平稳,而设立综合实验区以来的2009—2011年期间生态安全指数上升幅度最为明显,尤其是从2011年开始,生态安全指数达到0.7612,生态安全状况由2010年的临界进入了良好,后续2012—2015年呈现略微下降的平稳状态。进行相关因子分析发现状态指数、驱动力指数、响应指数与安全总指数的相关系数较高并且响应指数大于压力指数相关系数;通过主成分分析与通径分析发现2011年与2015年的主成分综合得分最高,分别为1.5277与1.1974,响应因子对平潭岛生态安全状况起到决定作用,其中交通运输投资比率、卫生社会保障投资比率、公共设施投资比率对平潭岛生态安全状况产生直接与间接的影响较大。研究可以丰富海岛环境评估的实证案例与相关理论体系,同时为国内海岛城市化进程的生态安全评估提供借鉴。

Dynamic evaluation of ecological security and its driving factors in the process of urbanization of islands: a case study of Pingtan Island

With the acceleration of the urbanization process of islands, the contradiction between the development and construction of islands and the ecological safety has become increasingly prominent. It is of great significance to promote the coordinated development of the social, economic, and ecological environment of Pingtan Island by objectively evaluating the dynamic changes and the driving forces of the ecological conditions in the development and construction of Pingtan Island. We selected 2001 as the ecological security status evaluation benchmark year. In addition, natural and socio-economic indexes from 2005 to 2015 were selected to construct the Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Responses (SPSIR) evaluation index system for ecological security assessment of Pingtan Island. Using the comprehensive index method, it was observed that the driving factors and impact factors were relatively stable in the evaluation years. The dynamic trends of the pressure and state factors were similar. The dynamic changes in the response factors were relatively stable before the establishment of the comprehensive test area in 2009, but the fluctuation was most obvious from 2009 to 2012. Response factors, pressure factors, and state factors have a significant impact on the ecological security index. Response factors, taken together, was the key factor impacting ecological security index. The ecological security status of Pingtan Island is on the rise, but the ecological security situation was relatively stable in 2001 and 2005 to 2009. Since the establishment of the comprehensive experimentation area, the ecological security index has risen the maximum, especially during the period from 2009 to 2011. From 2011, the ecological security index reached 0.7612, which was a good threshold compared to the ecological security situation of 2010 and then showed a slight decline at a smooth state from 2012 to 2015. Correlation coefficients between the state index, driving force index, response index, and safety index were higher, and the response index was greater than the correlation coefficient of the pressure index. Through principal component analysis and path analysis, it was found that the principal component scores in 2011 and 2015 were the highest, with 1.5277 and 1.1974, respectively. The response factors play a crucial role in the ecological security of Pingtan Island. Among these, Transportation investment ratio, Health and social security investment ratio, Public facility investment ratiohave direct and indirect impacts on the ecological security of Pingtan Island. These results support the empirical case and relevance of the theoretical system of island environmental assessment, and provide a reference for the ecological security assessment of the domestic island urbanization process.