耦合生态系统服务供求关系的生态安全格局动态分析——以闽三角城市群为例

实现分区管理是缓解城市群生态安全空间差异的有利途径。基于供求理论构建了生态系统服务供求关系动态模型框架,并利用供给与需求的象限区划表征闽三角城市群生态安全格局;在不同的尺度变换上,运用价值单量修正模型、INVEST生境质量模型、景观指数模型、生态韧性模型、熵权法等方法综合测度城市群生态系统服务供求水平,实现生态安全格局的分区化;引入环境库兹涅茨曲线理论解析区域生态安全格局现状和成因;数据分析借助Arc GIS可视化表示。研究发现:(1)闽三角城市群存在50%区域属于生态安全高供给失衡区,其中70%属漳州市境内;32.14%属于高需求失衡区,集中于市辖区与沿海地区;17.86%属于双维度失衡区;未存在单元位于双维度共赢区上。(2)区域生态系统服务供给颇佳而需求滞后,城市群东南沿海区域与周边区域格局差异明显,供给(需求)呈现由沿海向内陆梯次增(减)的空间分异规律。(3)城市群尚处于生态安全库兹涅茨曲线的"两难阶段",同时导致了城市群生态安全格局空间异质性的产生。

Dynamic analysis of an ecological security pattern relying on the relationship between ecosystem service supply and demand: a case study on the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou city cluster

Zoning management is an effective approach to reducing the spatial difference in city cluster ecological security. Based on the supply and demand theory, this study constructs a framework for a dynamic model of the relationship between ecosystem services supply and demand, and uses this relationship to characterize the ecological security pattern in the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou city cluster. This article evaluates the status of the ecosystem service supply and demand of the city cluster and analyzes the zoning of the ecological security patterns using the InVEST model, landscape quality index, ecological resilience model, and entropy method. This article also analyzes the factors and current status of the ecological security pattern by using the environmental Kuznets curve. The three main findings are as follows: (1) in total, 50% of counties in the city cluster belong to the "high supply imbalance zone" of ecological security, and 70% of these counties are within Zhangzhou City; 32.14% of counties fall into the "high demand imbalance zone" of ecological security, and these counties include districts and coastal areas; 17.86% of counties belong to the zone where both the supply and demand for ecological security are imbalanced; no counties are located in a zone where both the supply and demand for ecological security are balanced. (2) The demand for ecosystem services in the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou city cluster is weak. There are still over 80% of counties below the average level. There is a notable spatial difference between some coastal counties of Xiamen and Quanzhou and surrounding counties. The overall ecosystem service supply of the city cluster is better, but the difference in ecosystem service supply between the coastal and inland counties is remarkable, and it presents an increasing trend from the coast to inland. Zhangzhou performs quite well, and all counties in Zhangzhou perform above the average level, but Xiamen shows an opposite pattern, and there is a distinct difference between the inland and coastal counties in Quanzhou. (3) From the environmental Kuznets curve of ecological security that we constructed, it can be suggested that the whole region is still in a "dilemma state", where there is great disharmony between the ecological environment and economic development. Meanwhile, the study helps to explain the dislocations in supply and demand, and the spatial difference in the ecological security patterns of the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou city cluster.