京津冀城市群能源供需与城市化的关系模式

城镇化发展加剧了城市对能源的消耗,进而加剧了能源供需不平衡,这种不平衡已经成为限制城镇化发展的重要因素。目前,城市群作为我国城镇化发展的重要形式,充分发挥城市群的协同效应以减缓能源供需矛盾,对实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义。研究以京津冀城市群为例,从地级市尺度系统地核算了2001—2015年能源供应和需求量,并采用ward聚类方法划分3种不同类型的能源供求特征,并分析了每种类型的能源供需特征差异。同时,以能源供需比值表示供需差异并进行了比较。在此基础上,采用多指标综合分析方法进一步探讨了能源供需与城市化的关系模式。结果表明:(1)京津冀城市群不同城市能源的供求特征及变化存在明显的时空差异。一方面,从能源供给特征来看,年平均能源生产量较高的城市(天津市)能源产量由上升转变为平缓变化趋势,而低产城市(石家庄市)呈不稳定的变化趋势,两类城市平均能源产量相差2497.66万t标准煤;另一方面,从能源需求特征来看,北京、天津市等能源高耗城市能源消费近年来趋于下降趋势,而低耗型城市(沧州市)近年来呈波动变化,二者平均差值为4752.49万t标准煤;(2)基于能源供需比值,京津冀城市群所有城市均表现为能源供不应求,且不同城市能源供需缺口差异明显。其中,天津市能源供给能力最强,但其生产量却不及自身消费量的65%,而供给能力相对最弱的城市保定市,其能源需求几乎完全依赖外部能源供给;(3)城市能源供需与城市化水平之间关系不完全一致。研究对能源供需模式与城市化模式不一致的城市,划分了先进型和滞后型两种关系模式。对于先进型的城市,主要有北京市、沧州市和廊坊市,它们的城市化水平相对较高,分析认为其能源开发利用相对集约;而属于滞后型的城市,包括唐山市、邯郸市和邢台市,其城市化水平偏低,分析认为这类城市能源开发利用效率低、发展方式相对粗放,是城市群能源效率提升的重点。本研究旨在为今后的城市群能源规划提供科学依据,建议北京市等能源相对集约型城市带动唐山市等发展方式粗放、落后的城市,以提高京津冀城市群整体的能源效率。

Analysis on the relationships between energy supply and demand and urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China

Developing urbanization aggravates the consumption of energy and the imbalance between energy supply and demand, creating a feedback that restricts continued development. Urban agglomeration is an important form of urbanization in China. Facilitating the synergistic effects within urban agglomeration to alleviate the gap between energy supply and demand is of great significance to realizing regional sustainable development. By using the urban agglomeration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as a case study, energy supply and demand for 2001-2015 were calculated systematically at the city level, and three types of energy supply and demand characteristics were identified by ward clustering method. The spatial and temporal differences of energy supply and demand in each type were then analyzed. And the relationship between supply and demand represented by the ratio was compared. The multi-index comprehensive analysis method was used to further explore the relationship between energy supply and demand and urbanization. The results are described as follows. (1) The energy supply and demand in different cities of the urban agglomeration had clear spatial and temporal variations. From the view of characteristics of energy supply, the average energy supply of high production cities (such as Tianjin) has transitioned from a rising to stationary trend, while the energy supply in low production cities (such as Shijiazhuang) is changing unstably, and the average supply differences of the two types of cities is 24976600 tons of standard coal. However, high consumption cities such as Beijing and Tianjin have shown decreasing trends in recent years, while low consumption cities (such as Cangzhou) have been variable in recent years, but the average difference between the consumption of the two types was 47524900 tons of standard coal. (2) Based on the ratio of the energy supply and demand, cities are all manifested as insufficient of energy supply, and there are clear differences between energy supply and demand of cities. Among the cities, Tianjin has the strongest self-sufficiency capacity of energy, but its production is lower than 65% of its own consumption, while Baoding, one of the cities with the weakest self-sufficiency, is almost entirely dependent on external energy supply. (3)The relationship between the balance of urban energy supply and demand and the level of urbanization is not consistent. To study the cities that are inconsistent with the modes of energy supply and demand and urbanization, advanced and lagging modes were classified. For the cities of advanced modes, mainly including Beijing, Cangzhou and Langfang cities, the urbanization level of these cities were relatively advanced. And it is analyzed that their energy development and utilization is relatively intensive. For the cities of lagging modes, including Tangshan City, Handan and Xingtai, were low in urbanization level. According to the analysis, these cities were in low efficiency of energy development and utilization, and of relatively extensive development mode, which are the key points for improving the energy efficiency of urban agglomeration. The purpose of this study is to provide a scientific basis for future urban agglomeration energy planning. It is suggested that Beijing and other energy intensive cities promote the cities with extensive and backward development such as Tangshan city, to improve the overall energy efficiency of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.