中国城市低碳发展水平评估方法研究

城市低碳发展水平评估对推动城市可持续发展,提高城市应对气候变化能力具有重要意义。基于低碳城市理念和内涵,构建了由6类(碳排放、经济发展、社会进步、交通、人居环境和自然环境)、13个具体指标组成的城市低碳发展评价指标体系及综合评价指数,并结合中国35个城市2010—2015年社会经济发展数据,对参评城市的低碳发展水平及趋势进行评价与分析。结果表明:多数参评城市的低碳发展水平呈现上升的趋势,其中,城市低碳发展水平最高和最低城市名单无明显变化,且深圳市在2010年和2015年均为低碳发展水平最高的城市。与2010年相比,杭州市、银川市、郑州市、石家庄市和昆明市的城市低碳发展指数相对持平,而成都市、长沙市、合肥市和大连市有所下降。城市低碳发展水平较低可能是由于城市碳排放、经济、社会、交通、人居环境和自然环境等方面之间协调发展程度不够造成的。最后,对如何提高我国城市低碳发展水平给出了对策和建议。

Study on the methods of assessment for low-carbon development of Chinese cities

Assessment of low-carbon development is vital to the sustainable development of urban areas, and is of importance for measures to address global climate change for cities. Based on the concept of low-carbon cities and on previous research, we constructed an indicator system to assess urban low-carbon development. According to this research, a low-carbon city is characterized by reduced urban carbon emissions (including those from economic, social, construction, and transportation sectors). Moreover, some limitations have hindered the improvement of low-carbon development assessment indicator systems. There is no uniform indicator system, making comparisons among domestic and foreign studies difficult. Therefore, there is a need to develop a unified indicator system to assess low-carbon development. In the present study, the indicator system consists of six categories (carbon emission, economic development, social improvement, traffic, and residential and natural environments) and 13 specific indicators:carbon emissions per capita, carbon emissions per unit GDP, GDP per capita, non-agricultural industry share of GDP, expenditure of education as proportion of GDP, urbanization rate, urban construction land area per capita, green coverage, urban civilian car ownership per capita, road area per capita, concentration of sewage treatment plants, safe treatment rate of biological waste, and comprehensive utilization rate of general industrial solid waste. Using data from 35 typical cities in China from 2010 to 2015, the low-carbon development trend of cities was evaluated and analyzed. The indicator system can be applied to a wide range of situations. The results demonstrated that most of the investigated cities showed increasing development of low-carbon economies. Of all investigated cities, Shenzhen had the highest index in both years; low-carbon indices for Hangzhou, Yinchuan, Zhengzhou, Shijiazhuang, and Kunming remained the same; and indices for Chengdu, Changsha, Hefei, and Dalian declined, mainly due to the lack of coordination between urban development and environmental mitigation. Finally, based on the conclusions of this study, the following suggestions for improving the development of low-carbon cities and economies are put forward:(1) The development of a low carbon economy should focus on improving energy efficiency and renewable energy utilization; (2) To improve the urban economic level without increasing environmental impacts, the urban industrial structure should be improved; (3) The development of an urban low-carbon economy is also related to social development, urban construction, traffic conditions, and environmental pollution treatment capacity. In addition to reducing urban carbon emissions and strengthening urban economic development, education, urban greening, land use planning, urban roads, transport systems, and environmental pollution treatment capacities should be improved.