京津冀特大城市群生态安全格局时空演变特征及其影响因素

京津冀特大城市群的快速发展显著提升了地区生活水平,但也对生态环境造成了负面影响。以2000—2015年京津冀城市群面板数据为研究样本,建立"压力-状态-响应(PSR)"城市群生态安全协同会诊指标体系,采用TOPSIS和灰色关联组合方法计量其生态安全综合指数(Comprehensive Index of Ecological Security,CIES),运用因子分析法提取关键因素,并通过多元线性回归方法计算上述因素对生态安全的影响程度。结果表明:(1)京津冀城市群生态安全指数已经达到了预警状态,呈现"北高南低,西高东低"的空间格局,亟需建立三地协同联防联控的生态安全防治机制;(2)2000—2015年京津冀城市群的生态安全指数呈小幅波动状态,规划与政策对城市群生态安全指数具有显著影响效应;(3)13地市生态安全指数的演变趋势存在显著的差异,承德、廊坊仍呈下降趋势;(4)城镇化、社会发展以及技术进步对京津冀城市群生态安全具有显著的正相关性,开发水平、经济发展以及生态病理度则呈负相关性。由此,需要划定并严守城市群生态保护红线,控制空间开发强度与速度,以遏制生态恶化;完善并落实京津冀城市群协同发展的规划体系与相应的配套政策支撑体系,以保障城市群生态安全稳定提升;控制经济发展速度,提升社会发展水平,构建城市群一体化社会服务保障体系;提升生态技术研发水平,加大生态空间保护与修复,以降低生态安全风险,保障城市群生态安全格局。

Study of the evolution and factors influencing ecological security of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

The rapid development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration (BTHUA) has significantly raised the quality of life in the region. However, but it also has a negative impact on the ecological environment. Using the panel data of BTHUA from 2000 to 2015 as the research sample, the stress-state-response (PSR) index system of collaborative consultations on ecological security was constructed. The TOPSIS and gray correlation methods were used to measure the Comprehensive Index of Ecological Security (CIES), and then the key factors were extracted by factor analysis. The influence of these factors on ecological security was calculated by Multiple Linear Regression. The results reveal that the eco-security index (ESI) of BTHUA has reached the early warning state, showing the "North High South, West High East low" spatial pattern. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish an ecological security mechanism. The ESI of BTHUA fluctuated slightly, which was attributed to the planning and policy implementation of urban agglomeration. There were significant differences in the evolution trends of the ESI of the 13 cities, with Chengde and Langfang showing a downward trend. The factors urbanization, social development, and technological progress have significant positive correlation with ecological security in BTHUA, while the level of development, economic development, and ecological pathology have negative correlation. Therefore, it is necessary to delineate and strictly adhere to the red line of ecological protection of urban agglomerations and control the magnitude and speed of physical space development in order to curb ecological deterioration. Improving the coordinated development planning system of BTHUA and its policies is important to ensure steady improvement of ecological security in urban agglomerations. At the same time, urban agglomerations should control the pace of economic development, upgrade the level of social development, and establish an integrated social service guarantee system. Furthermore, urban agglomeration should enhance the level of ecological technology research and development, and increase the protection and restoration of ecological spaces to reduce the risks to ecological security.