区域一体化视角下长三角地区生态用地时空演变影响因素

区域一体化在推动要素流动、整合地区资源、提高区域竞争力的同时，也为生态用地带来一定风险与压力，造成生态用地规模缩减、景观格局破碎、生态功能降低等问题。探讨区域一体化背景下生态用地的时空演变特征与影响因素对于平衡区域发展与生态保护的关系、制定合理生态用地保护策略、实现区域协调可持续发展等具有重要意义。以长三角地区为例，在分析生态用地时空演变的基础上分别构建两个地理加权回归（GWR）模型，一个模型为考虑区域一体化因素的实验组，一个模型则是不考虑区域一体化因素的对照组，通过结果对比分析区域一体化对长三角地区生态用地演变的影响，结果表明：（1）2000-2020年间，长三角地区生态用地规模缩减显著，减少166.56×10⁴ hm²，生态用地急剧减少时间集中在2015-2020年间；（2）长三角地区生态用地减少面积的时空演变具有以上海、江苏南部和浙江北部为中心向周边地区扩散的趋势，扩散方向覆盖长三角全部地区，生态用地集聚性快速减少区域则以安徽中北部、江苏北部地区为主；（3） GWR回归对照试验分析结果表明区域一体化对生态用地演变具有显著促进作用，其作用强度和作用范围伴随时间增加；（4）根据生态用地演变影响机制，长三角生态用地演变类型可分为内生驱动型、外生驱动型以及发展监测型，可为平衡国土空间开发与生态用地保护提供决策支持。

Influencing factors of spatiotemporal evolution of ecological land in the Yangtze River Delta from the perspective of regional integration

With the advent of globalization, regional integration has been considered an important strategy for national and sub-national governments. However, the increased regionally spatial interaction is accompanied by active human, logistic, and information flows, which introduce risks to regionally ecological land. Hence, proper impact assessments of regional interaction on ecological land, reasonable land use and zoning practices, and protection of land-based resources are necessary to ensure regionally ecological security. The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) has one of the highest levels of socio-economic development and regional integration in China. However, with rapid urbanization and industrialization, the local ecology is threatened by evident scale reduction, landscape pattern fragmentation, and ecological degradation. Studies on the influences of ecological land evolution have mostly focused on urban demographic, social, and economic factors, while less consideration has been given to the spatial interaction of cities in the context of regional integration. On the one hand, the advancement of regional integration brings resource integration and improves the overall competitiveness of the region while promoting the active flow of factors. On the other hand, the concentration of population and industries, improvement of public infrastructure networks, and optimization of industrial structures also bring risks and pressure to the regionally ecological land. This emphasizes the need to explore the spatial and temporal evolution of characteristics and influences of ecological land in the context of regional integration to balance the relationship between regional development and ecological protection, formulate reasonably ecological land protection strategies, and achieve the coordinated and sustainable regional development. This study firstly analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological land in the YRD. To explain the effect of regional integration and provide implications and suggestions for regional ecological land use management and protection, two geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were constructed separately. One model for the experimental group considered the regional integration factors, while the control group did not consider these factors. The results were then used to compare and analyze the impact of regional integration on the evolution of ecological land in the Yangtze River Delta region. The analysis of the results showed four salient points:(1) from 2000 to 2020, the scale of ecological land in the YRD shrank significantly by 166.56×10⁴ hm², concentrated in 2015-2020. (2) The spatiotemporal evolution of ecological land reduction in the YRD tended to spread from Shanghai, southern Jiangsu, and northern Zhejiang to the surrounding areas. The spreading direction covered all areas of the YRD, while the area of concentrated rapidly ecological land reduction was mainly in northern central Anhui and northern Jiangsu. (3) The analysis results demonstrated that the regional integration had a significant contribution to the evolution of ecological land, and its intensity and scope of action increased over time. Lastly, (4) according to the influence mechanism of ecological land evolution, the types of ecological land evolution in the YRD could be divided into endogenous-driven, exogenous-driven, and development-monitoring types, which can provide decision support for balancing territorially spatial development and ecological land conservation.