低碳发展背景下北京市土地利用与生态系统服务多情景模拟研究

在全球气候变化的背景下，合理协调低碳减排与经济效益之间的关系，进而指导土地利用优化配置，对于推动经济社会低碳转型与生态系统服务价值的提升具有重要意义。通过耦合多目标规划(MOP)与斑块生成土地利用模拟模型(PLUS),针对北京市构建了自然演变、经济优先与低碳发展这3种未来发展情景，并对不同情景下2030年土地利用与生态系统服务价值进行模拟评估。在此基础上，进一步对北京市未来生态系统服务提升区域进行识别，将传统的多情景土地利用模拟研究进行了延伸与扩展。结果表明：(1)3种情景下的土地利用结构与空间布局存在差异，低碳发展情景下东南部平原区建设用地的扩张与耕地面积的减少趋势得到了有效控制，西北部山区的林地面积有较大幅度的增长。(2)低碳发展情景下的生态系统服务价值总量约为590亿元，高于另外两种情景，且从空间分布上来看，该情景下服务价值提升区域的面积也显著高于其他情景。(3)低碳发展情景下，北京市生态系统服务提升潜力较大的区域面积占比约7.98%、潜力中等区域的面积占比约26.57%,潜力较低区域的面积占比约65.45%。

Multi-scenario simulation of land use and ecosystem services in Beijing under the background of low-carbon development

In the context of global climate change, rationally coordinating the relationship between low-carbon emission reduction and economic benefits, and then guiding the optimal allocation of land use, is of great significance for promoting the low-carbon transformation of the economy and society and enhancing the value of ecosystem services. In this paper, multiple objectives programming (MOP) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS) were used to construct three future development scenarios for Beijing: natural evolution, economic priority and low-carbon development, and to simulate the value of land use and ecosystem services in 2030 under different scenarios. On this basis, we further identify the future ecosystem service improvement areas in Beijing, and expand the traditional multi-scenario land use simulation research. The results showed that: (1) there were differences in land use structure and spatial distribution under the three scenarios. Under the low-carbon development scenario, the expansion of construction land and the decrease of cropland in the southeastern plain were controlled effectively, and the woodland area in the northwestern mountainous area increased significantly. (2) The total value of ecosystem services under low-carbon development scenario was about 59 billion yuan, higher than that under the other two scenarios. In terms of spatial distribution, the area of service value improvement under this scenario was also significantly higher than the other scenarios. (3) Under the low-carbon development scenario, the area with high potential for improving ecosystem services in Beijing accounted for about 7.98%, the area with medium potential accounted for about 26.57%, and the area with low potential accounted for about 65.45%.