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中国森林生产力对气候变化响应的预测研究
引用本文:刘世荣,郭泉水,王兵.中国森林生产力对气候变化响应的预测研究[J].生态学报,1998,18(5):478-483.
作者姓名:刘世荣  郭泉水  王兵
作者单位:中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境研究所,北京,100091
基金项目:国家科委“九五”国家攻关专题
摘    要:根据不同地理区森林生产力和气候环境变量的数据构建了中国林林气候生产力模型,以此为基础研究了气候变化对中国森要生产力的影响。结果表明:在所构建的模型中,除海拔高度与净生产力的相关模型外,其它模型均有较高的实用价值,模型的似合曲线变化,基本反映了中国森林现实力的地理分布格局;中国森林生产力的分布格局主要取决于气候环境中的水热条件,水分条件是决定中国大部分地区森林生产力水平和地理分布格局的主导因素;根据

关 键 词:气候变化  森林生产力  中国  预测
收稿时间:1996/11/25 0:00:00
修稿时间:1997/7/10 0:00:00

PREDICTION OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY OF FORESTS IN CHINA IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
LIU Shirong,GUO Quanshui and WANG Bing.PREDICTION OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY OF FORESTS IN CHINA IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,1998,18(5):478-483.
Authors:LIU Shirong  GUO Quanshui and WANG Bing
Institution:The Research Institute of Forest Ecology and Environmental Science; Chinese Academy of Forestry; Beijing; China
Abstract:Models of climatic productivity of forests in China were established through regression analysis of net primary productivity of forests distributing in different geographical regions versus the corresponding meteorological variables.The established models in which annual precipitation was incorporated as the principal variable indicate a very closely correlation between forest productivity and its corresponding climatic factors,allowing to simulate distribution pattern of actual forest productivity effectively.By means of GIS in conjunction with the established models,the forest productivity in response to the climate change scenario in 2030 was predicted,suggesting that the predicted geographical distribution pattern of net productivity of forests in China was the same as that of current actual patterns,i.e.forest productivity gradually decreased with the increasing latitude and from south east to north west direction within China.The predicted net primary productivity of forests,however,was found to increase at the varying degrees in different geographical regions,as compared to the current climate scenario.The percentage difference of forest productivity between under the future climate change and the current climate scenario was found to increase with the increasing latitude,being opposite to the distribution pattern of actual net primary productivity of forests.This might be attributable to larger increase in air temperature and precipitation in the high latitudes than in the low latitudes under the future climate change.
Keywords:climate change  forest productivity  prediction  China  
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