面向多重生态保护目标的广东省生态系统服务退化风险情景模拟

稳定、协调、可持续的生态系统服务供给是维持区域自然生命系统、保障区域生态安全的基础。面临生态系统所受的人为与自然干扰，有必要准确评估生态系统服务退化风险，揭示区域生态安全和可持续性提升路径。现有研究多叠加所有生态系统服务以评估生态系统服务退化风险，未能面向区域生态问题或生态需求对不同类型生态系统服务进行整合。研究提出面向多重生态保护目标的生态系统服务退化风险情景模拟框架，考虑广东省生物多样性保育、水资源安全、自然灾害防范等生态保护目标，选取代表性生态系统服务类型(生境维持、水源涵养、水质净化、土壤保持、洪水缓解、热带气旋缓解),基于不同典型浓度路径情景评估2018—2035年生态系统服务退化风险。结果表明，2018—2035年广东省生态系统服务供给空间格局基本稳定，尽管有所退化、空间异质性强。生态系统服务退化风险的情景模拟表明，面向生物多样性保育目标的生态系统服务退化高风险区位于珠三角的深圳市、佛山市和江门市，以及粤西和粤东地区的湛江市、茂名市和揭阳市；面向水资源安全目标的生态系统服务退化高风险区位于珠三角的深圳市、中山市和江门市，以及粤西与粤东地区的茂名市、揭阳市和江门市；面向自然灾...

Ecosystem service degradation risk scenario simulation for multiple ecological conservation objectives in Guangdong Province

Stable, coordinated and sustainable supply of ecosystem services is the foundation for maintaining regional natural life systems and ensuring regional ecological security. Facing the human and natural disturbances to ecosystem, it is necessary to accurately assess the risk of ecosystem service degradation, and reveal the improvement path of regional ecological security and sustainability. However, existing studies mostly overlay all ecosystem services to assess the degradation risk of ecosystem services, and fail to integrate different types of ecosystem services in response to regional ecological problems or ecological needs. This research proposed a framework for ecosystem service degradation risk scenario simulation for multiple ecological conservation objectives. Considering three ecological conservation objectives of Guangdong Province with biodiversity conservation, water resources security and natural disaster prevention, representative ecosystem service types (habitat maintenance, water conservation, water quality purification, soil retention, flood mitigation, tropical cyclone mitigation) were selected. Degradation risk of ecosystem services for 2018-2035 was assessed based on Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios. The results showed that the spatial pattern of ecosystem services supply in Guangdong Province was basically stable from 2018 to 2035, although there was some degradation and strong spatial heterogeneity. Scenario simulation for ecosystem service degradation risks showed that high-risk areas of ecosystem service degradation for biodiversity conservation objective were located in Shenzhen, Foshan and Jiangmen in the Pearl River Delta, and Zhanjiang and Maoming in western and eastern Guangdong regions. The high-risk areas of ecosystem service degradation facing water resources security objective were located in Shenzhen, Zhongshan and Jiangmen in the Pearl River Delta, and Maoming, Jieyang and Jiangmen in the western and eastern Guangdong regions. The high-risk areas of ecosystem service degradation for natural disaster prevention objective were located in Shenzhen and Jiangmen in the Pearl River Delta, Maoming, Zhanjiang and Jieyang in the western and eastern Guangdong regions. These areas have high future ecological risks and is key area for ecosystem service degradation risk prevention in Guangdong Province. Facing multiple ecological conservation objectives, the Guangdong Province ecosystem service degradation risk response strategy should attach importance to the conservation of urban ecosystem biodiversity, strengthen the protection and restoration of ecological lands, especially mangroves, implement hierarchical management and control of watersheds, and carry out ecological protection and restoration projects oriented to multiple ecological conservation objectives according to local conditions. We should actively adopt climate change-related intervention policies and choose green and sustainable development paths with low resource consumption and low ecological impact.