基于土地利用变化与生态系统服务供需的中国野生亚洲象时空迁移特征分析

2021年4月，我国15头野生亚洲象(Elephas maximus)从西双版纳一路北迁至昆明市受到了全世界的关注，分析我国野生亚洲象分布区土地利用变化、生态系统服务供需关系如何影响野生亚洲象分布，对保护亚洲象与提高当地人类福祉具有重要的意义。利用生态系统服务价值当量因子法和生态系统服务需求模型计算中国野生亚洲象分布区1990、2005、2015年生态系统服务供给价值与需求指数，通过空间标准化匹配出四种生态系统服务供需模式，探究我国野生亚洲象偏好分布的供需模式。结果表明，林地、草地和耕地是最主要的土地利用类型，1990—2015年，林地、草地和耕地的面积变化率分别为1.09%、-4.82%、-4.86%。1990、2005、2015年生态系统供给总价值分别为6108.55亿元、7434.41亿元、13973.37亿元；生态系统服务需求不断提高，整体呈现中间高，四周低的分布格局。在研究的25年内，亚洲象分布于高供给-高需求与高供给-低需求区域，且有向高供给-高需求区域迁徙的趋势。

Spatio-temporal migration characteristics of wild Chinese Asian elephants based on land use change and ecosystem service supply and demand

In April 2021, 15 Chinese Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) migrating from XiShuangBanNa all the way north to Kunming City have attracted worldwide attention. Analysis of land use changes in the distribution area of the Asian elephants in China, the relationship between supply and demand of ecosystem services and the distribution of Asian elephants is of great significance for the protection of Asian elephants and the enhancement of local residents'' well-being. This paper adopted the method of equivalent value factor per unit ecosystem area and demand model for ecosystem services to calculate the supply value and demand index of ecosystem services in the distribution area of Chinese Asian elephants in 1990, 2005 and 2015, and succeeded in matching four models for ecosystem services supply and demand through spatial standardization to explore the supply and demand pattern of preferred distribution of Asian elephants in China. The results demonstrate that forestland, grassland and arable land are the most important land use types. In 1990-2015, the rate of change of the three land uses types were +1.09%, -4.82%, and -4.86%. The total value of ecosystem supply was 610.855 billion yuan (CNY) in 1990, 743.441 billion yuan (CNY) in 2005, and 1,397.337 billion yuan (CNY) in 2015; the demand for ecosystem services continued to surge, and the overall distribution pattern illustrate a tendency of being high in the middle and low in all sides. The Asian elephants were located in high supply-high demand, high supply-low demand areas, and were increasingly tending to move towards high supply-high demand areas.