不同SSP-RCP情景下中国生态系统服务价值评估

定量评估生态系统服务价值是人类合理利用和管理生态系统的重要依据，未来气候情景下土地利用变化模拟及其对生态系统服务价值的影响评估对于区域生态系统服务管理、开展生态功能区划及减缓和适应气候变化等方面具有重要意义。基于最新IPCC共享社会经济路径(SSPs)和典型浓度路径(RCPs)的科学组合情景模拟得到的土地利用情景数据，对2020—2050年我国生态系统服务价值进行估算，并对2050年生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系进行讨论，主要得到以下结论：生态系统服务价值(ESV)在2020—2050年表现为SSP1-RCP2.6>SSP2-RCP4.5>SSP3-RCP6.0,SSP1-RCP2.6情景下2020年ESV为12.39×10⁴亿元，2050年ESV为12.34×10⁴亿元；SSP2-RCP4.5情景下2020年ESV为12.17×10⁴亿元，2050年ESV为12.11×10⁴亿元；SSP3-RCP6.0情景下2020年ESV为12.02×10⁴亿元，2050年ES...

Valuation of ecosystem services in China under different SSP-RCP scenarios

Quantitative assessment of ecosystem service values is an important basis for human using and managing ecosystems reasonably. The simulation of land use change under future climate scenarios and its impact assessment on the value of ecosystem services is important for regional ecosystem service management, the development of ecological functional zoning and climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study estimates the ecosystem service values (ESVs) in China (except Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, China) from 2020 to 2050 based on land use scenarios simulated by the latest IPCC Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and discusses the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem service functions in 2050. We get the following main conclusions. The ESV in 2020-2050 shows SSP1-RCP2.6 > SSP2-RCP4.5 > SSP3-RCP6.0, and the ESV in 2020 is 12.39×10⁴ billion yuan in SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario and 12.34×10⁶ billion yuan in 2050; the ESV in SSP2-RCP4.5 scenario is 12.17×10⁴ billion yuan in 2020 and 12.11×10⁴ billion yuan in 2050; the ESV in 2020 is 12.02×10⁴ billion yuan and 11.53×10⁴ billion yuan in 2050 under the SSP3-RCP6.0 scenario. The rate of ESV decline is faster in the SSP3-RCP6.0 scenario and more stable and flatter in SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP2-RCP4.5.The largest proportion is occupied by regulation services (66.98% to 68.46%), with support services in the second place (18.81% to 20.64%), followed by supply services (8.64% to 9.44%), and the smallest proportion is cultural services (3.19% to 3.36%). The synergies between the three scenarios are SSP1-RCP 2.6 > SSP2-RCP4.5 > SSP3-RCP6.0, so the most synergistic scenario SSP1-RCP2.6 is used as an example to explore the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in the future (2050). The six sets of relationships in the 2050 SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario are predominantly synergistic, with support-culture services having the highest degree of synergy and correspondingly the lowest degree of trade-offs. The highest trade-off is for supply-support services. This study bridges the gap between the current lack of research on the value of ecosystem services at large scales in future scenarios. The following suggestions are put forward:China should actively respond to climate change, carry out ecosystem protection and restoration, enhance ecosystem service capacity, increase carbon sink, and help achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. At the same time, we should pay attention to food security, control urban sprawl, carry out ecological management and protection in urban fringe, and ensure the ability of supply and regulation services. This study provides scientific basis and decision-making support for ecosystem protection, ecological function zoning and climate change response in China.