气候变化对雪豹全球潜在适生区分布的影响与评估

气候变化不仅是人类正在面临的挑战，也是野生动物需要应对的危机。雪豹(Panthera uncia)作为亚洲中部高原和山脉的旗舰种，它的生存和繁衍可以反映青藏高原等地区生态系统的健康状况。青藏高原等地区的气候变暖速度远快于全球平均水平，研究气候变化对雪豹的生境的影响对于高原物种的保护有重要意义。以雪豹为研究对象，采用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)气候模式下四种共享社会经济路径(SSPs)对应的未来21世纪中期和21世纪末期的环境数据，并基于最大熵模型(MaxEnt),结合ENMTool、SDMTool、ArcGIS和R等工具对当前和未来全球不同发展模式引起的气候变化对雪豹适宜生境的影响进行了模拟预测和分析评估。研究发现：(1)影响雪豹分布的主要环境因素包括：两种气候变量(年平均气温和最冷月最低温度),两种地形变量(海拔和坡度)和一种水文变量(距离最近河流的距离)。(2)当前气候模式下雪豹的全球潜在适宜分布区的总面积约为1122.05万km²,其中低适生区面积为534.5万km²,中适生区面积为386.15万km²...

Impacts and assessment of climate change on the global distribution of potentially suitable habitats for Panthera uncia

Climate change is not only an ongoing challenge for humans, but also a crisis for wildlife to deal with. As flagship species of the plateaus and mountains in the central Asia, the survival and reproduction status of Panthera uncia can reflect the health of ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and other regions. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are warming much faster than the global average. It is significant for conservation of plateau species to study the impact of climate change on the habitat of Panthera uncia. Taking Panthera uncia as the research object, this study makes use of the environmental data of four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model were used corresponding to the future mid-21st century and the end of the 21st century under the CMIP6 climate model. Based on the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt), combined with ENMTool, SDMTool, ArcGis, R and other tools, we simulate and analyze the impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Panthera uncia due to current and future global development models. The results show that:(1) the major environmental variables which affect the distribution of Panthera uncia include:two climatic variables (annual mean temperature and the minimum temperature of the coldest month), two topographic variables (elevation and slope), and one hydrological variable (distance to the nearest river). (2) Under the current climatic model, the global total area of potential suitable distribution areas for Panthera uncia is approximately 11.22 million km², of which the low suitable area is 5.35 million km², the moderate suitable area is 3.86 million km², and the high suitable area is 2.01 million km². China has 5.57 million km² of Panthera uncia suitable area, of which the low suitable area is 1.46 million km², the moderate suitable area is 2.56 million km², and the high suitable area is 1.54 million km². (3) In the future, the medium and high suitable areas of Panthera uncia under different climate models will shrink to varying degrees, and the response of Panthera uncia high-suitable areas to climate change will be more significant. The Panthera uncia''s high suitable areas located in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Kunlun Mountains, the Tianshan Mountains, the Altai Mountains and the Hindu Kush Mountains are more fragmented and more susceptible to climate change. In addition, under the medium development path (SSP245) and high-speed development path (SSP585) climate models, the new high suitable areas of the Panthera uncia help to enhance the connectivity among the Panthera uncia distribution areas. The results show that climate change has a great impact on the habitat of Panthera uncia. It is recommended to strengthen the attention and protection of plateau species such as Panthera uncia.