内蒙古自治区沙漠化敏感性时空演变格局和趋势分析

以内蒙古自治区为研究区，基于压力-状态-响应模型(PSR)分析框架，耦合空间距离指数模型(SDIM)构建土地沙漠化敏感性评价体系(LDSES),结合沙漠化敏感性时空演变图谱，定量探讨内蒙古自治区土地沙漠化敏感性在2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年期间的时空演变，并引入元胞自动机-马尔科夫(CA-Markov)模型模拟沙漠化敏感性未来演变机制，进而采用地理探测器揭示了前20 a演变进程中主要驱动因子对其演变的影响特征及解释力。结果表明：(1)内蒙古自治区沙漠化敏感性整体上呈现由东北向西南递增的趋势，低敏感区位于大兴安岭和阴山山脉周边林草地覆盖区，高敏感区则位于西南部的巴丹吉林沙漠、腾格里沙漠、乌兰布和沙漠、库布其沙漠、毛乌素沙漠等沙地和戈壁地区；(2)从沙漠化敏感性时空演变上来看，研究期间沙漠化敏感性改善的区域，占总面积的30.65%,沙漠化敏感性恶化的区域，占总面积的4.48%,沙漠化敏感性类型维持稳定不变的区域占总面积的52.72%,整体来看土地沙漠化潜力逐渐降低，土地生态质量逐渐好转；(3)2030年沙漠化敏感性模拟结果显示未来10年沙漠化敏感性以低度敏感为...

Analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution pattern and trend of desertification sensitivity in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Taking the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as the study area, based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) analysis framework and coupled with the spatial distance index model (SDIM), the Land Desertification Sensitivity Evaluation System (LDSES) is constructed. Then combined with the spatio-temporal evolution map of desertification sensitivity, this paper quantitatively discusses the temporal and spatial evolution of land desertification sensitivity in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. At the same time, CA-Markov model is introduced to simulate the future evolution mechanism of desertification sensitivity, and then the geographic detector is used to reveal the characteristics and explanatory power of the main driving factors in the evolution of the first 20 years. The results showed that:(1) the desertification sensitivity of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region showed an increasing trend from the northeast to the southwest. Insensitive areas were located in the forest and grassland areas around Great Khingan and Yin Mountains. Highly sensitive areas were located in sandy land and the Gobi Desert such as the Badain Jaran Desert, Tengger Desert, Urumqi Desert, Rambuh Desert, Kubuqi Desert, and Mu Us Desert in the southwest. (2) From the perspective of the temporal and spatial evolution of desertification sensitivity, the areas with improved desertification sensitivity during the study period accounted for 30.65% of the total area. Areas with deteriorating desertification sensitivity accounted for 4.48% of the total area, and areas where the type of desertification sensitivity remained stable accounted for 52.72% of the total area. On the whole, the potential for land desertification is gradually decreasing and the ecological quality of the land was gradually improving. (3) The simulation results of desertification sensitivity in 2030 showed that in the next 10 years, low sensitivity will be the main type (26.43%), the desertification potential will be greatly reduced, and ecological engineering measures will achieve a good result. (4) The driving force analysis showed that the sensitivity of desertification was particularly sensitive to climatic factors, among them, rainfall had the greatest explanatory power for the differentiation of desertification sensitivity. Among the factors of social and economic development, the level of economic development played a major role, indicating that the improvement of economic level would affect the sensitivity of land desertification to a certain extent. And the interaction of various driving factors enhanced the sensitivity of desertification, indicating that the differentiation of desertification sensitivity was the result of a combination of multiple factors. The research can provide reference for the formulation of desertification control and strategies in semi-arid regions.