吉林省限制开发生态区绿色发展水平评价与障碍因素

以吉林省限制开发生态区为实证研究区域,基于2005、2010、2015年3期分县市区截面数据,从国土空间优化、自然资本利用、经济发展质量、社会福祉进步及环境污染治理5个维度构建绿色发展指标体系,结合熵权-TOPSIS评价法、马尔科夫链、障碍度模型等方法,测度吉林省限制开发生态区各县市区绿色发展水平,揭示绿色发展水平分异格局与转移类型,并探究绿色发展水平障碍因素。结果表明:吉林省限制开发生态区绿色发展综合水平整体处于较低水平,并呈现下降的趋势;绿色发展水平空间分布格局相对稳定,呈"西南高、东北低"特征;2005—2010、2010—2015年绿色发展水平类型转移状态较为不稳定,绿色发展水平各类型转移较为明显;科技支出比重、地均固定资产投资、建设用地比重、建设用地产出率、万人中学生人数、耕地产出率、林地产出率、化学需氧量去除率是制约绿色发展水平的主要障碍因素;最后提出构建生态型产业体系、加大绿色科技投入、提高土地集约使用效率、完善生态补偿机制等对策建议。

The level of green development and obstacle factors in the limited development ecological zone of Jilin Province

This paper takes the limited development ecological zone of Jilin Province as the empirical research area. Based on cross-sectional data of the counties in 2005, 2010, and 2015, we used entropy weight-TOPSIS evaluation method, Markov chain, and obstacle degree model to measure the green development level and its obstacle factors using the indicator system constructed from five dimensions of land space optimization, natural capital utilization, economic development quality, social welfare progress, and environmental pollution control. The results showed that the integrated level of green development in the limited development ecological zone of Jilin Province was at a low level as a whole and with a declined trend. The spatial distribution pattern of the green development level was higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast. The state of green development level transfer in 2005-2010 and 2010-2015 was relatively unstable, and the type of green development level was more obvious. The proportion of science and technology expenditure, the investment in fixed assets, the proportion of construction land, the output rate of construction land, the number of middle school students, the output rate of cultivated land, the output rate of forest land, and the removal rate of chemical oxygen demand were the main obstacle factors restricting the level of green development. Finally, the paper put forward some countermeasures and suggestions such as constructing ecological industrial system, increasing investment in green science and technology, improving the efficiency of land intensive use, and improving the ecological compensation mechanism.