基于土地利用的粤港澳大湾区生态系统服务价值及承载力演变分析

研究粤港澳大湾区土地利用、生态系统服务价值及承载力的时空演变特征是优化大湾区生态系统管理、提升生态质量的重要依据。当前针对大湾区的土地利用变化过程、生态系统服务价值及生态承载力相结合的系统分析仍较少。系统研究了快速城市化背景下粤港澳大湾区的土地利用变化、生态系统服务价值及生态承载力变化。基于高分辨率遥感数据分析粤港澳大湾区1990-2015年土地利用变化及特征，采用当量法评估大湾区的生态系统服务价值，基于生态足迹法评估大湾区的生态承载力变化。结果表明：1990-2015年大湾区内建设用地增加，耕地、林地、湿地及未利用地面积逐渐减少；建设用地的增加主要来源于耕地、林地、水域及未利用地等的转化。伴随着剧烈的土地利用变化，大湾区的生态系统服务价值从1990年的6385.09亿元减少到2015年6183.89亿元，减少了3.15%。大湾区的生态承载力总体稳定，但由于消耗增加，整体呈现生态赤字，人均生态赤字达3.09 hm²。未来大湾区土地利用规划中，需加强自然资源保护，合理调整土地结构，实现经济和生态的可持续发展。

Evolution of the ecosystem services value and carrying capacity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area based on land use changes

Analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution process and characteristics of the land-use changes (LUCC), ecosystem services value (ESV), and ecological carrying capacity (ECC) of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) is an important basis for optimizing ecosystem management and improving ecosystem quality. Currently, there are still few comprehensive analyses on the combination the LUCC, ESV, and ECC of the GBA. This study uses the high-resolution remote sensing data to study the land-use changes and features of the GBA from 1990 to 2015, estimates the ESV based on the equivalent factor method, and evaluates the ECC based on the ecological footprint method. The results showed that from 1990 to 2015, the area of built-up land in GBA increased from 4407.58 km² to 8912.31 km², while the areas of cropland, forest, wetland, and unused land decreased significantly. The area of the forest and cropland decreased 3.19% and 17.23% respectively. The increase of built-up land mainly came from cropland, forest, and water body and 2000-2010 was the most obvious time period. With the dramatic land-use changes, the ESV of the GBA decreased from 6385.09 billion yuan in 1900 to 6183.89 billion yuan in 2015 (decreased by 3.15%). Water contributed the most to ESV and the ESV of food production and hydrological regulation were the highest. Wetland had the greatest loss of value, decreasing by -54.64%, followed by unused lands, which decreased by 45.03%. The regional ecological footprint (EF) of the GBA increased rapidly from 80.57 hm² in 1990 to 241.31 hm² in 2015. The consumption of fossil energy has the largest increase, from 9.21 hm² in 1990 to 44.13 hm² in 2015. The ECC of GBA is generally stable, but the overall ecological deficit is serious due to the increased consumption. In 2015, the regional ecological deficit reached 214.88 million hm² and the per capita ecological load reached 3.09 hm². With a 50% increase in population and nearly 15-fold increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 1990 to 2015, the EF per GDP showed a clear downward trend from 1.47 hm²/yuan to 0.28 hm²/yuan, which indicates that although the overall resource utilization of the GBA has gradually changed from extensive and consumptive to intensive and economical, the overall situation is still challenging. In the future land use planning of the GBA, it is necessary to strengthen the protection of natural resources and rational adjustment of land-use structure to realize the sustainable development of economy and ecology.