陕西省新型城镇化与生态环境协调度研究

城镇化与生态环境之间相互影响、相互促进,两系统间耦合协调状态对于区域绿色可持续发展意义重大。以陕西省2005—2019年数据为例,在构建新型城镇化与生态环境系统评价指标体系的基础上结合耦合协调度模型、相对发展模型及面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型分析新型城镇化系统与生态环境系统间的耦合协调时空规律及互动关系。结果表明：(1)陕西省耦合协调度总体呈现“基本不协调—基本协调—中度协调”的演变规律。(2)各市耦合协调发展状态空间差异明显,2005年、2013年、2019年陕西省10个城市新型城镇化与生态环境耦合协调发展状态存在较大差异性,相对发展状态整体上由新型城镇化滞后状态发展为生态环境滞后状态。(3)脉冲响应图反映出新型城镇化与生态环境两系统间存在明显互动关系,前期生态环境受新型城镇化冲击的负向抑制作用,后期影响逐渐减小,受自身冲击较大,而新型城镇化发展前后期均主要受自身影响。本研究认为新型城镇化发展必须以生态为优先,在提高生态承载力的基础上,加速提升陕西省各区域空间人口等不同维度城镇化发展水平,从而实现高质量可持续的绿色发展目标。

Coordination degree between new urbanization and ecological environment in Shaanxi Province

Urbanization and the ecological environment influence and promote each other, and the coupling and coordination between the two systems is of great significance to regional green sustainable development. Based on the 2005-2019 data of Shaanxi Province as an example, this study combines the coupling coordination degree model, the relative development model and the Panel Vector Autoregression(PVAR) model on the basis of constructing a new urbanization and ecological environment system evaluation index system to analyze the temporal and spatial laws of coupling coordination between the new urbanization system and the ecological environmental system and interaction. The results show that:(1) the degree of coupling coordination in Shaanxi Province generally presents an evolutionary law of "basic incoordination-basic coordination-moderate coordination". (2) The spatial difference of the coupled and coordinated development status of each city is obvious. In 2005, 2013, and 2019, there were big differences in the coordinated development status of new urbanization and ecological environment coupling in 10 cities of Shaanxi Province, and the relative development status was generally changed from the new urbanization. The lagging state has developed into a lagging state of the ecological environment. (3) The impulse response diagram reflects the obviously interactive relationship between the new urbanization and the ecological environment. The ecological environment was negatively restrained by the impact of the new urbanization in the early stage, and the impact gradually decreased in the later period, and the impact was greater by itself, while the development of the new urbanization in the early and late stages was mainly affected by itself. This study indicates that the development of new-type urbanization must give priority to ecology. On the basis of improving ecological carrying capacity, the urbanization development level of different dimensions such as spatial population of various regions in Shaanxi province should be accelerated, so as to achieve the goal of high-quality sustainable green development.