最大可允许填海面积模拟——厦门西海域案例研究

填海造地在解决海岸带地区发展空间短缺问题的同时,严重损害了人类赖以生存和发展的海洋与海岸带生态系统。如何控制大规模填海造地是我国面临的重大课题。构建了估算海湾最大可允许填海造地面积的分析框架和模型。填海造地的各种收益和成本,包括环境和生态成本被系统性地量化并嵌入到框架和模型之中。模型的估算结果可以为实施控制填海造地的约束机制提供科技支撑。利用建立的框架和模型对厦门西海域模拟的结果显示:当贴现率为4.5%时,厦门西海域最大可允许填海面积是89.44 hm2,其面积至少应该保持在44.52 km2;即便是使用8%的高贴现率,最大可允许填海面积也只占规划填海面积的35.83%;如果采用更加重视环境与生态效益的低贴现率2%,则厦门西海域最大可允许填海面积是0。

Modeling the total allowable area for coastal reclamation:a case study of Xiamen, China

While creating useful space for agriculture, industry, and urban development, coastal reclamation damages considerably the marine ecosystems which human-kind depends on. How to control the large-scale coastal reclamation is a great challenge in China. This paper presents an analytical framework and model to estimate the Total Allowable Area for Coastal Reclamation (TAACR) to provide scientific support for the implementation of a coastal reclamation restriction mechanism. Various benefits and costs, including the ecological and environmental costs of coastal reclamation, are systematically quantified in the framework. Model simulations are developed using data from West Sea of Xiamen. The results show that the TAACR in West Sea is 89.44 hm² at a discount rate of 4.5%. Area of West Sea must be maintained at a minimum of 44.52 km² so that the social well-being can be maximized. Under low discount rate, 2%, the TAACR is zero. Even with high discount rate, 8%, the optimal reclamation area is 157.97 hm², about 35.83% of the total planned area.