中国34个省级行政区三维生态足迹动态研究

当前中国正处于生态文明建设的关键时期，东西部环境资源不均衡的格局日益加剧，限制了区域社会经济的可持续发展。基于资源、社会经济统计数据，利用三维生态足迹模型对中国34个省级行政区进行动态研究，细化不同类型土地的均衡因子与产量因子，刻画2009—2016年人均生态足迹广度、生态足迹深度的时空特征，并探讨分析省域间的资本利用格局及其社会经济影响因素。主要结论如下：人均生态足迹广度在省域间差异较大，且生态足迹深度均已超过自然原长1.00；足迹广度在研究期间呈先降后升趋势，最高值为西藏的10.87—12.35 hm2/cap，最小值为澳门的0.02 hm2/cap；且资本流量占用率并不充足，广西与上海分别仅为47.68%—67.34%、66.31%—68.88%。香港、澳门、宁夏的足迹深度远高于中国均值，分别为19.24—26.02、8.60—10.88、4.60—7.46，最小值为西藏（1.64—1.79），其中耕地、化石能源用地的生态赤字贡献率最高，而林地则为生态盈余状态。将各省自然资本利用格局聚类分为4类并通过ArcGIS进行空间分析。基于改进的三维生态足迹模型并系统性地应用于中国34个省域，本研究定量化各省的自然资本利用格局，可为中国区域间资源配置、政策制定提供基础数据支撑及环境决策参考。

Assessing three-dimensional ecological footprint of 34 provinces in China

Under the construction of ecological civilization in China, the contradiction between resource depletion and sustainable development is becoming a crucial issue nowadays. Based on resources and socioeconomic statistics, this paper applied the modified three-dimensional ecological footprint (3DEF) model to analyze and evaluate natural capital utilization in China during 2009-2016. The results showed that ecological footprint size (EF_size) differed within 34 provinces and ecological footprint depth (EF_depth) far exceeded the original value of 1.00. EF_size per capita decreased first and then increased with obvious spatial heterogeneity in 34 provinces. The highest EF_size was in Tibet (10.87-12.35 hm²/cap) and the lowest in Macao (0.02 hm²/cap), while natural capital flow ratios were greatly insufficient in Guangxi (47.68%-67.34%) and Shanghai (66.31%-68.88%). The highest EF_depth occurred in Hong Kong (19.24-26.02), followed by Macao (8.60-10.88) and Ningxia (4.60-7.46), which were extremely above the average of China while Tibet registered the lowest value (1.64-1.79). Cropland and fossil energy land contributed the most to total ecological deficit while woodland component maintained in ecological surplus state during the study period. Spatial patterns of natural capital utilization in 34 provinces were divided into four categories through clustering analysis integrated with ArcGIS software. The significance of this research is optimizing 3DEF model applied to 34 provinces in China systematically. The investigation also quantitatively depicted natural capital flow and stock utilization on provincial scale and further explored their influencing socioeconomic factors. Overall, our findings could provide basic data and guidance for decision-makers to establish regional sustainability strategies in China.