密云水库流域“稻改旱”生态补偿农户参与意愿分析

近年来,北京市政府在密云水库上游实施"稻改旱"生态补偿项目,确保城市供水安全,而上游农户能否积极参与,是该项目成功的关键。基于农户调查数据,运用选择实验模型分析了密云水库上游河北省丰宁县3个乡镇农户"稻改旱"项目的参与意愿特征。定量估计了"合同期限"、"是否可以中途退出"、"参与项目土地比例"、"化肥减量使用"、"是否可以浇水"和"补贴金额"共6个选择属性对农户参与意愿的影响。除"参与项目土地比例"外,其余属性均对农户项目参与意愿有显著影响。以此为基础,估计出各个具有显著影响选择属性的边际效应和边际接受意愿。结果表明:(1)农户青睐"可以中途退出"和"短合同期"的选择属性,反映出项目蕴藏的可持续性风险。可通过创造更多符合本地劳动力特点的非农就业机会加以解决;(2)"不可以浇水"和"减少化肥使用"已成为阻碍农户参与的两个因素。现阶段可先通过技术培训的方式,从改善农户环境意识入手,以减少农户生产行为对项目成效的不利影响;(3)补偿金额对于动员农户参与的效果较为有限,而其它几个选择属性却表现出较好的农户动员参与特性。因此,可尝试增强农户自主参与决策,并引入弹性合同机制,以有效吸引农户参与,同时节约补偿资金使用;(4)不同乡镇对"稻改旱"项目表现出差异化的参与意愿。与农业乡镇相比,非农产业乡镇的补偿期望相对较高。因此,今后应考虑改变以往不分区域"一刀切"的做法,设计多样化的补偿策略。

Choice experiment modeling of rural households' willingness to participate in the Miyun Reservoir catchment's Paddy Land-to-Dry Land program

In recent years, the Beijing Municipal Government has implemented the Paddy Land-to-Dry Land (PLDL) program in the Miyun Reservoir catchment, in order to ensure the security of Beijing''s water supply, and the participation of rural households is the key to the program''s success. Based on survey data of rural households in three townships of Fengning County (Hebei Province), the present study used choice experiment modeling to quantitatively estimate the effects of six choice attributes, including contract length, contract release option, proportion of total land area enrolled, mandatory fertilizer use reduction, allowance of irrigation, and subsidy level, on rural households'' willingness to participate in the PLDL program. Except for the proportion of total land area enrolled, all the choice attributes significantly affected the rural households'' willingness to participate. Based on the initial result, the marginal effect and households'' marginal willingness to accept for each of the significant choice attributes was estimated. The results indicated that (1) rural households preferred the option to be released from their contracts and shorter contract length, thereby identifying a sustainability risk for the program, which could be addressed by creating more off-farm employment opportunities in accordance with the characteristics of local labor forces. (2) The restriction of irrigation and mandatory fertilizer use reduction both inhibit program participation, and in the current phase, these issues should be addressed by improving rural households'' environment awareness through relevant technical training to improve their production activities. (3) Meanwhile, subsidy level limited the motivation of rural household participation, whereas the other choice attributes were more effective, which suggests that allowing for greater household autonomy in program participation and alternative contractual arrangements should be piloted. (4) Finally, the willingness to participate in the PLDL program varied across different townships, and the township with non-farm industries had a higher compensation expectation than the agricultural township; therefore, the current one-size-fits-all compensation strategy should be replaced with one that considers regional economic characteristics.