配额目标约束下区域减排的最优控制率

研究了区域碳排放配额目标给定下,如何确定一个保障经济平稳增长的最优碳排放控制率问题。提出了一个最优减排率确定的计算流程,并且根据前瞻性原则、人口原则、GDP原则、GDP-人口原则、支付能力原则5种不同的碳排放配额分配原则,确定了中国大部分省市自治区可能的最优减排率。选取5个中国省区上海、山西,湖南、云南以及新疆作为案例地区,在计算得到这些地区的减排率的约束下,分析了在社会福利最大化的情况下各区域分配的配额获得的经济增长路径和能源碳排放路径。模拟结果发现,中国在各种减排约束下各区域的经济增长路径呈阶梯式下降的趋势。能源碳排放呈先升后降的整体趋势,各个省市自治区要实现2030年后不再增加碳排放。得出各东部省份在GDP原则分配的配额约束下减排控制率最小,西部省份在支付能力原则下减排控制率最小,而中部省份则在人口原则下减排控制率较小。5个原则中前瞻性原则适合中国推进的碳减排配额方法。

The optimal control rate of regional emission reduction targets under the constraint of quotas

Allocation of carbon dioxide emission rights is one of the effective ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, an annual reduction rate needs to be determined to achieve this goal gradually. Given the negative effect of the emission reduction on economy, it is necessary to perform the emission reduction under the conditions of optimal and balanced economic growth, without causing an economic crisis. Hence, an optimal and balanced economic growth pathway is taken into account during calculations of the optimal control rate of carbon dioxide emission reduction. In this study, consequently, we try to determine the optimal control rate of carbon dioxide emission reduction that ensures balanced economic growth, with the constraint of the objective of a certain regional carbon dioxide emission quota. First, we present a calculation flow chart showing how to achieve the optimal control rate of carbon dioxide emission reduction. On the basis of the flow chart, we describe an algorithm aimed at determining the optimal control rate of carbon dioxide emission reduction and use it to calculate such a rate for each province given their carbon dioxide emission quota determined by means of the allocation principles forward-looking, population, GDP, GDP-population, and ability-to-pay. A higher control rate of carbon dioxide emission reduction means more efforts are needed to reduce the carbon dioxide emission. Furthermore, in this study, we selected five provinces and autonomous regions of China (Shanghai, Shanxi, Hunan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang) as research cases, analyzed the path of economic growth and energy-induced carbon dioxide emission with the objective of welfare maximization and the constraint of carbon dioxide emission quota for the participating regions. The simulation shows that the growth rate of the economy drops gradually under the constraints of carbon dioxide emission reduction in all regions. For instance, the economic growth rate of Shanghai is lower than that in other eastern provinces and even negative along with a decline of the economic growth rate at later development stages (with the principle of ability-to-pay). Shanghai has to purchase carbon dioxide emission quota rights to keep the positive economic growth rate in the future. Shanxi attains a lower emission reduction rate by means of the forward-looking principle, which maintains Shanxi''s economic growth rate at a relatively high level. Hunan stays on a similar path of economic growth and an emission reduction rate with various allocation principles. Therefore, the principle of emission right allocation has a smaller effect on the economy and on the reduction rate. Yunnan shows a higher economic growth rate with the principle of ability-to-pay, followed by the scenario involving the population principle. With the principle of GDP, the economic growth rate is the lowest. Similarly, Xinjiang achieves the highest economic growth rate with the principle of ability-to-pay, and lowest or even negative growth rate with the GDP or GDP-population principle. The carbon dioxide emission will first increase and then decrease, and the peak years of carbon dioxide emission are 2032 for Shanghai, 2033 for Hunan, 2036 for both Yunnan and Xinjiang, and 2039 for Shanxi province. Hence, more efforts are needed if these provinces want to achieve their carbon dioxide emission peak before 2030. Finally, we found that eastern provinces require the minimum reduction rate when using the GDP principle; western provinces by means of the ability-to-pay principle; and central provinces by means of the population principle. Among all the allocation principles, the forward-looking principle is suitable for China to allocate the carbon dioxide emission rights from the standpoint of carbon dioxide control and regional disparities in growth rate.