中国富士苹果种植气候适宜区的年代际变化

苹果是中国种植面积最大的水果,分析气候变化背景下其种植气候适宜区的年代际变化,可为合理利用气候资源、科学应对气候变化提供参考。基于中国主栽的富士苹果地理分布信息和1961—2010年中国区域2084个气象台站资料,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS软件,通过构建富士苹果种植分布与气候因子的关系模型,分析1961—2010年中国富士苹果种植分布的年代际变化特征及其对气候变化响应的敏感区。结果表明,气候变化导致中国富士苹果种植分布的气候界限和气候适宜区明显北移,其中气候适宜区范围伴有西扩趋势。富士苹果种植的各气候适宜区分布年代际变化特征明显,适宜气候种植面积显著增加,特别是1990s变化最为突出,2010s气候种植适宜面积较1960s增加36%。但高气候适宜区面积则呈年代际波动,2010s虽略高于1960s,但较1970s—1980s减少25%。富士苹果种植适宜区对气候变化响应最为敏感的地区主要分布在辽宁南部、鲁南、苏北、豫东南、黄土高原西北部和川陕接壤区。除热量条件外,年日照时数对富士苹果种植的气候适宜区面积影响显著,气候资源变化有助于富士苹果种植的气候适宜范围增加,但不利于高气候适宜区的稳定。

Dynamics of decadal changes in the distribution of cultivation regions with climate suitable for the Fuji apple in China

Apple has larger planting area than any other fruit in China. Analyzing the decadal changes in the distribution of cultivation areas with climate suitable for apple under the background of climate change can provide a reference for the rational use of climate resources and adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we established a model by examining the relationship between Fuji apple cultivation distribution and climate, based on meteorological data from 1961 to 2010 at 2084 meteorological stations and the geographic planting distribution of Fuji apple in China together with the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and the ArcGIS spatial analysis technique. The decadal change characteristics of the distribution of Fuji apple cultivation areas in China from 1961 to 2010 and areas sensitive to climate change were explored using the model. The results showed that climate change has led to the northward movement of planting boundaries and areas with climate suitable for Fuji apple, with westward expansion of the areas with suitable climate. There was an obvious decadal change in areas with climate suitable for the cultivation of Fuji apple and this area increased significantly, especially in the 1990s. The cultivation area with suitable climate was 36% higher in the 2010s than in the 1960s; however, the optimum cultivation area fluctuated with decadal change. The optimum cultivation area in the 2010s was slightly higher than that in the 1960s, but was 25% lower than those in the 1970s-1980s. The most climate change-sensitive cultivation area of Fuji apple was principally found in southern Liaoning, southern Shandong, and northern Jiangsu, and on the southeastern Henan northwestern Loess Plateau and the contiguous area of the Sichuan-Shaanxi province. Annual sunshine hours and thermal conditions had significant effects on the areas with climate suitable for the cultivation of Fuji apple. Overall, climate change can act to increase the area suitable for cultivation of Fuji apple, but can adversely affect the stability of the optimum cultivation area.