城市化对区域生态足迹的影响及其耦合关系

城市系统与区域生态系统间存在着复杂的相互影响,分析二者的交互耦合关系,可以客观地反映区域生态协调发展程度,为区域城市化发展提供科学依据。在修正城市生态足迹模型的基础上,计算了2000—2015年昆明市三维生态足迹动态,并建立了城市化综合评价指标体系,探讨生态足迹模型变化的驱动因子,构建城市化与生态耦合模型并测算其协调度。结果表明:过去15年间,昆明市土地利用类型的流转加剧、建设用地比例提升、经济增长和社会进步指标反映出城市化水平逐年提高;自然资源消耗增加和污染排放加剧使得人均生态足迹逐年上升。研究初期,人均生态承载力下降态势明显,后逐渐有所上升,生态赤字逐年减小,资源压力有所减轻。生态足迹广度基本不变、生态足迹深度先上升后下降、资源的利用效率逐年增加,其主要驱动因素在于社会层面的高质量城市化发展与经济产业结构调整。昆明市生态足迹与城市化耦合水平及协调度均呈逐年稳定上升,于2015年基本过渡到协调阶段;生态承载力与城市化耦合水平及协调度均呈波动上升态势,这与城市化负向作用逐渐积累、集中凸显相关。总体上,昆明市城市化进程中,需要提升城市化发展质量,管控城市扩张规模。

Effect of urbanization on the ecological footprint and their interactive coupling relationship

A complex interaction exists between urbanization and the regional eco-environment. Analyzing the interactive coupling relationship can objectively reflect the degree of coordinated development between systems and provide a scientific basis for the development of regional urbanization. This study first reviewed and expanded the ecological footprint model and established a comprehensive index system to calculate the level of urbanization. Furthermore, based on the temporal dynamics analysis of various indicators in Kunming from 2000 to 2015, the driving factors of ecological footprint model temporal changes were explored, an interactive coupling model between urbanization and ecological environment was constructed, and the degree of coordination was calculated. The results show that:(1) exacerbating changes in land-use flow, increase in proportion of construction land, economic growth, and social progress reflected increased urbanization levels over time; (2) an increase in residents'' natural resource consumption and pollution emissions contributed considerably to the growth of the ecological footprint per capita year by year; in the early period, the decrease in per capita ecological carrying capacity was obvious, and with increasing emphasis on ecological civilization, the pressure on resources has been alleviated; (3) the ecological deficit and depth of ecological footprint decreased in recent years, whereas the size of the ecological footprint remained stable with increased efficiency of resource utilization, which was mainly owing to high-quality urbanization development at the social level and adjustment of industrial structure; (4) the interactive coupling level and coordination degree between the ecological footprint and urbanization in Kunming showed a steady increase, having transitioned to the coordination stage in 2015; the interactive coupling level and coordination degree between the ecological carrying capacity and urbanization both increased with fluctuations, indicating that the negative effects of urbanization have gradually accumulated and finally manifested. In general, during the process of urbanization in Kunming, it is necessary to pursue higher-quality urbanization development and control the scale of urban expansion.