高寒生态脆弱区农户对气候变化的感知——以甘南高原为例

气候变化作为人类当前面临的最严峻挑战,已对生态脆弱区农户生计产生严重的负面影响,明确农户对气候变化的感知对于制定有效的气候变化适应政策非常关键。以甘南高原为研究区,基于入户调查数据,构建了农户对气候变化的感知度指数,分析了甘南高原农户的气候变化感知特征,并采用经济计量模型分析了影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素。结果表明:(1)甘南高原农户对气温变化的感知能力强于对降水变化的感知,并对近期发生的、规模较大、影响较严重的极端天气记忆较深;(2)农户对气候变化的严重性及可能性感知较强烈,感知到的适应成本与适应功效也较高,但感知到的自我效能较弱,其气候变化严重性、可能性、适应功效、自我效能及适应成本感知度指数分别为3.76、3.34、3.43、2.85、3.53,且农区农户对气候变化的风险感知与适应感知均最强,半农半牧区次之,纯牧区最弱;(3)气候变化信息、农户的客观适应能力、农户对社会话语的信任度、适应激励均会影响农户的气候变化感知,其中,适应激励为最关键的影响因素,其与农户的气候变化适应功效感知、自我效能感知均呈正相关,而与风险感知、适应成本感知呈负相关。最后,针对如何提高农户气候变化感知的准确度,增强农户应对气候变化的能力,提出相关的政策建议。

Farmers' perception of climate change in high-frigid ecological vulnerable region: a case of Gannan Plateau

Global climate change has increased the vulnerability of natural ecosystems and brought a huge challenge to human being, how to adapt to climate change has become a hot spot in the world. The farmers who rely on natural resources for livelihoods is one of the vulnerable groups to adapt to climate change. Climate change has a serious negative impact on the farmers'' livelihood, especially in the high-frigid ecologically vulnerable region. Perception of climate change is the basis of climate change adaptation, clearing the features of climate change perception of farmers is conducive to a better understanding of their response action. Selecting Gannan Plateau as the study area, based on 539 household survey data and the MPPACC (Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change), built a index of the farmers'' perception of climate change, this paper analyzes the features of farmers'' perception to climate change and the key factors that affect the farmers'' perception of climate change by using the econometric model. The results show that:(1) Farmers'' perception of temperature change is more accurate than the perception of precipitation change,79.96% of farmers have sensed accurately the trend of rising temperatures over the past 30 years, which is consistent with the meteorological data, and only 36.92% of farmers have sensed the trend of rising precipitation, which is inconsistent with the actual meteorological data; At the same time, farmers have a deep memory of the influential and larger scale extreme weather that happened in recent years;(2) Farmers'' severity perception, probability perception, adaptation efficacy perception and adaptation costs perception of climate change are strong, but the self-efficiency perception of climate change is weak, the index of their severity perception, probability perception, adaptation efficacy perception, self-efficacy perception and adaptation cost perception are 3.76, 3.34, 3.43, 2.85, 3.53 respectively. And these perception is the strongest in farming area, next in the planting-pasturing area, the pure pasturing area is the weakest.(3) Climate change information, farmer''s objectively adaptive capacity, farmers'' trust on the social discourse, and adaptation incentives are all affect the farmer''s perception of climate change, among them, adaptation incentive is the key factors influence farmers'' climate change perception, and the more adaptation incentives, the weaker farmers'' severity perception, probability perception and adaptation costs perception, but the stronger farmers'' adaptation efficacy perception and self-efficiency perception. Finally, we put forward some relevant policy recommendations, the purpose is improve the accuracy of farmers'' perception to climate change and enhance their adaptive capacity.