基于生态位模型的艾比湖国家级自然保护区马鹿生境评价

生境评价和预测是对濒危物种进行有效保护的基础。通过2013年9月和2014年10月对新疆艾比湖国家级自然保护区开展2次秋季野外调查共收集了92处马鹿(Cervuselaphus)出现数据,利用马鹿出现数据作为分布点数据,选取地形、植被类型和气候因子3类23种因子作为生境变量,利用MAXENT生态位模型分析了新疆艾比湖国家级自然保护区马鹿秋季生境适宜性分布特征和主要生境因子对马鹿分布的影响。结果表明:模型预测结果较高,平均AUC(area under the curve,受试工作者曲线下面值)值为0.976;Jackknife检验结果显示:最热月最高温度对马鹿生境分布的影响较大。植被类型和坡度对马鹿生境分布的影响不大。海拔、年降雨量、气温日较差和最热季平均温度是影响马鹿生境分布的主要生境因子。马鹿秋季生境划分为高适宜、次适宜、低适宜和不适宜4个等级,马鹿的高适宜生境区主要分布在研究区域的北部,次适宜及低适宜生境区则分布于高适宜生境区的边缘,而不适宜生境区主要集中在西部和东部地区。研究不仅提供了马鹿在艾比湖的实际分布状况,也为马鹿生境和生境因子的关系方面提供了一个重要的科学依据。

Assessing habitat suitability for Cervuselaphus in the Ebinur Lake National Nature Reserve

Habitat assessing and prediction is important when attempting to protect endangered species. In the Ebinur Lake National Nature Reserve, Xinjiang, A total of 92 recorded GPS coordinates showed that Cervuselaphus was present in the reserve in September 2013 and October 2014. We grouped 23 habitat predictor variables into three classes-terrain, vegetation structure, and climatic factors. We used the MAXENT model to predict the potentially suitable autumn habitat distribution for C. elaphus and determined the contribution each habitat factor made to the distribution characteristics. The accuracy of our prediction models was accessed by the area under the curve (AUC) values for a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the validation showed that the results had high average AUC of 0.976. The results of a Jackknife test indicated that the maximum temperature in the warmest month had the strongest influence on autumn C. elaphus habitat suitability, followed by altitude, annual precipitation, mean diurnal range, and mean temperature during the warmest quarter. Vegetation type and slope had little effect on habitat distribution. The simulated habitat was divided into four classes-the most suitable habitat, moderate suitability habitat, low suitability habitat, and unsuitable habitat. The most suitable habitats for C. elaphus were mainly distributed in the northern parts of the study area, and habitats with moderate and low suitability were in the marginal areas of the most suitable habitats. In contrast, the western and eastern parts of the study area were classified as unsuitable habitats for C. elaphus. This study provides information on the actual distribution of C. elaphus in the Ebinur Lake National Nature Reserve and identifies important indicators that could be investigated by future studieson this species and its habitat.